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I am predicting in exactly seven days you will begin to be submerged in columns trumpeting the winners and losers from this year’s trade deadline.
At 4 p.m. next Sunday, teams will no longer be able to trade without getting waivers on players, so somewhere around 4:01 p.m., the first champs and chumps of this deadline will begin appearing in cyberspace.
We’ll all devour it because we love assigning heroes and goats, we love doing it quickly and we love lists. But it will lack perspective. For example, in July 2008, it probably was easy to see the Yankees as big winners when they obtained Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady from Pittsburgh for four youngsters. But, in retrospect, Nady is gone and Marte is an expensive permanent member of the disabled list, while the four players still are with the contending Pirates, notably Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen.
That made me wonder if we can learn something about this deadline from the recent past. Over the past three Julys, there have been 94 trades. And this probably will shock you, but the teams that made the most were not the Yankees and Red Sox. It was the Pirates (12) and the Indians (11). Maybe it is something in the family tree since Pittsburgh general manager Neal Huntington learned his craft working in the Cleveland organization.
Of course, over the past three years, the Pirates and Indians were acting as sellers. Now they are surprise contenders, so it will be fascinating to see if they are equally as active this month.
The team that has made the fewest trades the past three Julys? That would be the Mets with one: Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur in 2009.
What of the Yankees? Well, GM Brian Cashman annually downplays his team’s need to make a trade, but beginning in 2003, he has made at least one July swap every year. In that same span, Cashman willingly has played poker until the end, completing a July 31 trade every year except 2006, when he obtained Bobby Abreu on July 30. Nevertheless, the Abreu acquisition is the only trade since the acquisition of Jeff Weaver in 2002 that you could quantify as even close to a July blockbuster for the Yankees, despite how many huge names they are associated with annually at this time of year.
Cashman has been more about the supplementary pieces in the past four Julys, obtaining Kerry Wood, Lance Berkman, Austin Kearns, Jerry Hairston, Nady, Marte, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez, Wilson Betemit and Jose Molina.
So if the trend continues, Cashman will minimize the likelihood of making a trade, but find a way to add a piece before the deadline that looks a lot more like Brian Fuentes than Ubaldo Jimenez.
There are trades before and after July, so simply examining the month does not give a whole picture. But it gives a picture, because it is in July that teams feel a particular stress to get something done as a buyer or a seller, and the Mets’ inability to be either in the past three years speaks to just how indecisive and disorganized their front office has been. New GM Sandy Alderson, in trading Francisco Rodriguez, already has made as many deals this July as Omar Minaya did in the past three — and Carlos Beltran is on the launching pad.
The Twins and Rays have made just two July trades in the past three years, sharing the second fewest. Yet they are revealing of these organizations. Minnesota, perhaps more than any club, is insular, believing in its development system and, therefore, hesitantly selling prospects in season. Tampa Bay has gotten a bit of a reputation for refusing to do a deal that is anything less than a clear win. And the Rays’ July success from 2004-07 (adding Scott Kazmir, Ben Zobrist, Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler while giving up little) might explain why clubs are cautious in dealing with Tampa Bay.
So before we figure out this July’s winners and losers, here are the best and worst from 2008-10:
WINNERS
1. PHILLIES
They have made one trade in each of the past three Julys, getting Joe Blanton, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt while giving up 10 not-very-special prospects (perhaps the speedy Anthony Gose, now in Toronto’s system, will be something big). They still have a deep, strong farm system to make another killer move this week and their DNA now shows that is what they will do. Plus, their association with Lee in 2009 set the groundwork for him to return as a free agent last offseason.
2. ANGELS
They also have made just three July trades in the past three years and won each one. They made a minor deal with Kansas City for Alberto Callaspo, who has become their regular third baseman. They all but stole Dan Haren from Arizona at last year’s deadline. And the Angels gave up a pittance to Atlanta to get Mark Teixeira for the 2008 stretch drive.
3. PIRATES
They failed to translate Jason Bay into enough in 2008, but the 2008 Yankees deal (in which the Pirates also obtained Jose Tabata and Ross Ohlendorf) has deepened their talent reserve. Plus turning Octavio Dotel into James McDonald from the Dodgers was a coup last July.
4. GIANTS
They have not done a really big July deal since 2001 when they obtained Jason Schmidt from the Pirates for a package that, coincidentally, included Ryan Vogelsong, who after a five-year major league hiatus is back helping the 2011 Giants try to repeat. Over the past two Julys, GM Brian Sabean added pieces (second baseman Freddy Sanchez in 2009; relievers Chris Ray, Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez in 2010) that helped the Giants win last year’s World Series.
5. RANGERS
If this survey stretched back to 2007, Texas probably would be ranked No. 1 in the winners because in July that year the Rangers dealt Teixeira to Atlanta for a package that included Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison and maximized the last good moments of Eric Gagne’s career to get, among others, David Murphy from Boston. Texas then was the only team in the majors which did not make a July trade in both 2008 and ’09. Then, stunningly, while in bankruptcy, the Rangers made an AL-most five deals last July (all including cash considerations), notably sneaking around the Yankees at the eleventh hour to get Lee from the Mariners. So the Mets and Dodgers could be encouraged that they can act in July despite their overall financial plight.
LOSERS
1. ATHLETICS
Brad Pitt would not be playing Oakland GM Billy Beane in any movies based on the past three Julys. In that timeframe, the A’s have traded Ryan Webb, Jack Hannahan, Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin and Blanton and, aside from some salary relief, have little to show for the 13 players they received back. In fact, you would have to go back to 2001 when the A’s got Jermaine Dye in a three-way deal or 1999 when they stole Jason Isringhausen from the Mets for Billy Taylor to find a good July trade for Oakland. Of course, that was when the script for “Moneyball” was being written.
2. WHITE SOX
The win-now, impetuous nature of the organization shows in July. Last year, it cost the promising Daniel Hudson to get Edwin Jackson from Arizona. The previous July the White Sox ignored the injury concerns and huge remaining salary to obtain Jake Peavy then the following month got stuck with a waiver claim for Alex Rios. The Peavy/Rios combo is hurting the White Sox’s payroll maneuverability even now. And in 2008, in a failed last hope that they could get something out of the done Ken Griffey Jr., Chicago gave up Nick Masset, who has become a mainstay of the Reds’ bullpen.
3. INDIANS
In back-to-back years they traded Cy Young winners CC Sabathia and Lee, and got too little back, as they also have for Jhonny Peralta and Rafael Betancourt. They do not get a complete failing grade because in 2008 they flipped Casey Blake to the Dodgers for Carlos Santana, one of the most promising young catchers in the game. And, if you just go back to 2006, they moved Ben Broussard to Seattle for Shin-Soo Choo.
4. MARINERS
It wasn’t just that Seattle obtained Jack Wilson’s money/limited talent from Pittsburgh in July 2009, but then the Mariners rewarded him a two-year contract and ended up cutting him this year. And Seattle is another team that dealt Lee for too little. Justin Smoak began well this year, but has severely faded, and the scout word is that he cannot handle good pitching. That will keep the debate alive if the Mariners should have taken Jesus Montero from the Yankees instead.
5. BRAVES
They gave up too much for Teixeira in 2007, did not do the winning with him they expected, then traded him to the Angels for nothing in 2008. Alex Gonzalez is a steadying influence at short, but in a deal last July with Toronto it cost Yunel Escobar, who out of Atlanta seems to have grown up. The Braves’ additions last July of Kyle Farnsworth and Rick Ankiel didn’t help their playoff push much. They feel they have a championship-level team they want to augment this week, but Atlanta has not made a winning July trade since obtaining Bob Wickman in 2006.
joel.sherman@ypost.com