MILWAUKEE — A.J. has a better chance of being in the Yankees’ 2012 rotation than CC and way better likelihood than C.J.
This is the Yankees’ initial problem this offseason.
At this moment, the Yankees rotation for next season is A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes and, perhaps, Hector Noesi — or Three Men and a Maybe. Actually it is more akin to a bunch of backup singers in need of a front man. Sabathia would be the most obvious choice in a return engagement and C.J. Wilson could be added as a sidekick.
But the Yankees are bracing for potentially difficult negotiations with Sabathia while showing limited-to-no fascination with Rangers free agent Wilson.
The Yankees expect Sabathia to void the final four years at $92 million left on his contract unless the sides reached an agreement on a new deal beforehand.
To all outward appearances, the Yankees are as desperate to retain Sabathia as they were to originally sign him after the 2008 season — because on each occasion they would have been hard-pressed to find an ace otherwise. But I think the Yankees have a different mindset now.
They had missed the playoffs in 2008 for the first time since 1993. They needed to be of championship quality to open a pricey new stadium in 2009. And they had rejected a trade for Johan Santana the previous offseason because, among other things, they saw Sabathia as the better long-term option and were willing to wait a year until his free agency.
In the last go-around, the Yankees quickly offered six years at $138 million — more than the pitching record total of $137.5 million the Mets had given Santana. Attempting to keep Sabathia, Milwaukee bid five years at $100 million. When word circulated that the Angels were about to enter at the six-year, $125 million range, the Brewers began to fashion an offer for about six years at $112 million, hoping to show how the tax implications made the deal on par with that of the Angels. Remember, a belief existed that Sabathia didn’t want to play in New York and wanted to get back toward his West Coast roots, but loved his brief time in Milwaukee. So the Brewers thought they had a shot competing against the Angels if the Yankees really weren’t a factor.
But the Yankees strategy was to be so aggressive as to signal to the other suitors “no matter what you propose, we will blow it away.” And GM Brian Cashman traveled to Sabathia’s Northern California home to finalize a seven-year, $161 million pact.
A few factors, though, are making the Yankees less zealous this time. They are worried about his weight gain and what it means moving forward for a pitcher who already has had two knee surgeries. And even the more aggressive elements within the Yankees hierarchy are chilled by the ramifications of extending Alex Rodriguez after he opted out; A-Rod still has six years at $143 million left as his body and skills seem to be declining.
Also, Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner showed last year in negotiations with Derek Jeter that they can be hardliners even when dealing with an icon. Of course, they knew Jeter did not want to leave. Sabathia is not as historically rooted here, though all outward revelations are that the Sabathia family likes living in New Jersey and being associated with New York and the Yankees. Still, if the Yankees try to come in at what the Phillies gave Cliff Lee (five years, $120 million), the Sabathia camp will probably point out:
1) When Rodriguez opted out of his 10-year, $252 million deal, the Yankees gave him more (10 years, $275 million) to stay. They did this though Rodriguez had turned 32 the previous July, had not delivered a championship and was viewed as a divisive force in the clubhouse. So shouldn’t Sabathia get more than $161 million because he turned only 31 in July, has delivered a championship and is viewed as a uniting force in the clubhouse?
2) The Yankees offered Lee seven years at $146 million last year after he had turned 32 and done nothing yet for the Yankees. Sabathia is 31 and was a championship ace.
The key elements will be if any team(s) are willing to go beyond the $92 million left and by how much, and if Sabathia would really leave to play in, say, Washington?
On open market, Wilson can’t play the ace card
The Yankees are not the only team showing a lack of fervor for C.J. Wilson, though he has gone 31-15 with a 3.14 ERA the last two years and is left-handed. In supply and demand, this should make Wilson the top free-agent starter on the market — and once the bidding begins, all the talk of caution usually vanishes.
But I have yet to find a baseball executive or scout who views Wilson as an ace and very few who even think he is a definitive No. 2. Heck, one member of the Yankees decision-making apparatus told me he thinks Wilson is a No. 4 on a championship-caliber team.
Wilson will start Game 1 of the World Series for Texas tomorrow and has pitched in Game 1 of every round of these playoffs. But there are concerns about his career postseason performance (1-4, 5.40 ERA, 10 homers in 40 innings) and his command of the strike zone.
Also, I thought Wilson would get more points for a likelihood of future durability based on that he was mainly a reliever his first five seasons and never exceeded 74 innings. However, most executives spoken to said there is plenty of stress being a high-leverage reliever several times a week. Also, a few evaluators voiced concerns about Wilson’s mechanics, noting he has a bit of the Inverted W in his delivery — both elbows pointing upward and above the shoulder before the release — though not as dramatic as those of, say, Stephen Strasburg or the young Mark Prior.
It led one NL talent evaluator to tell me this: “Is he a good bet to start without breaking down over the next five years and 1,000 innings? Well, no one really is. But I would say his chances are slimmer than others.”