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CC Sabathia can void the remaining four years and $92 million left on his contract shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, and that provision has always been viewed as detrimental to the Yankees.
But there is another view — that the opt out is a blessing for the Yankees. At this moment Sabathia is arguably the best free-agent signing in Yankees history. For three years at $69 million, Sabathia went 59-23 with a 3.18 ERA; and was brilliant during the Yankees’ 2009 championship run.
Does anyone think Sabathia’s future with the Yankees will be better than that? Maybe, like Rick Reuschel or David Wells, he will be a hefty pitcher who maintains a high level of excellence into his late-30s. But how much — and for how long — do the Yankees want to gamble on that? Especially since any interested team has to wonder if the late-season/playoff fade this year was a double whammy based on large workload, large waistline.
In a piece on his personal blog earlier this week, Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated highlighted the 10 contracts with the most money left on them and made an obvious point: Each is pretty much a terrible deal. Two belong to the Yankees: The six years at $143 million left for Alex Rodriguez and five years at $112.5 million left for Mark Teixeira. The moment the Yankees would take Sabathia back into the nine-figure zone again, his deal almost instantly would join the regrettable list — unless you think Sabathia on, say, a redone six- or seven-year pact is going to be a good deal for the team.
But, of course, the Yankees have made long-term outlays before because they always prioritize short-term goals. And with no other obvious ace available, the Yankees sure could use Sabathia in 2012. An executive from another team asked this intriguing question, one I am sure Sabathia’s representatives will raise with Yankee officials: “If Sabathia was finishing up this exact year (19-8, 3.00 ERA, late-season struggles) for another team and the Yankees had the need for an ace they obvious have, how much would they pay in free agency to bring him to New York?”
Which is what got me to thinking about how much any team might be willing to pay Sabathia, who turned 31 in July. Will teams exceed even four years at $92 million — and, if so, by how much? How much outside pressure will there be on the Yankees to significantly up the ante or force Sabathia to consider relocating from a place he loves playing and living?
Here are my thoughts on which teams would be the most active:
NATIONALS — Will the ill-fated Jayson Werth deal (seven years, $126 million) make them gun shy about another mega-deal? I don’t think so. The Nats believe they are on the verge of being a winner and can become a big-market team if they are regular contenders. Plus the same situation that instigated the Werth signing — an aging owner, Ted Lerner, who wants results now and an ambitious son, Mark, who wants to put his stamp on the team, remain.
Sabathia, back in the NL where he dominated for the Brewers not long ago, would be an ideal leader for an otherwise young rotation that notably contains Stephen Strasburg. Still, there is an expectation that Washington’s big money this offseason is targeted toward Prince Fielder.
RANGERS — Texas has become a big-market franchise. The Rangers bid heavily on Cliff Lee last year, signed Adrian Beltre and spent huge in the international market. The feeling is they are going to lose free agent C.J. Wilson. The Rangers want to imagine themselves as an AL powerhouse, and considering their showing the past two years, why not? So hurting the Yankees to help themselves fits that philosophy.
BLUE JAYS — The AL East team you were expecting to see here was the Red Sox, right? Except the consensus around the industry is that Boston is against another $100 million-plus package because it invested $300 million-plus last offseason and still has so many long, dubious deals on the books.
Nevertheless, just to tweak the Yankees (remember why Brian Cashman said he took Carl Crawford to dinner), expect the Red Sox to, very publicly, host Sabathia on owner John Henry’s yacht.
Toronto believes it is getting close to being a threat atop the AL East. But are the Jays ready for this kind of commitment and would Sabathia really leave a comfort zone to start as many as 8-10 games a year against the Red Sox and Yankees?
The buzz this offseason is that the Nationals, Rangers and Blue Jays will be aggressive spenders — hence their standing atop this list. There is some sentiment that the Marlins also will throw around some dollars heading into a new stadium, but maybe not in this stratosphere.
CUBS — While the Red Sox might be hesitant to bid on Sabathia, how about their ex-GM, Theo Epstein? If the Cubs spend big this offseason, the expectation has been that they will try to pull Albert Pujols away from main rival St. Louis. But what if new GM Epstein believes the shortest distance between Chicago’s current roster and its first championship in more than a century is an ace?
TIGERS — Detroit has $23 million in contracts coming off via Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez. Owner Mike Ilitch has shown a willingness to spend big to go for a championship. Uniting Justin Verlander and Sabathia in front of Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello would give Detroit an awesome rotation.
ANGELS — They had a mostly under-the-radar pursuit of Sabathia the last time he was a free agent. But, as with all of their big-game, free-agent hunts in recent years, they did not have the stomach for the big outlay. Will they this time after missing the playoffs two straight years?
Their rotation is their strength, with Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana, while their offense badly needs attention. In fact, it would not be surprising if their third base needs led them to target David Wright. The Mets are prioritizing a defensive center fielder, Peter Bourjos is an exceptional gloveman and could be expendable with the Angels ready to move super prospect Mike Trout into center full time. Could a package fronted by Bourjos bring back Wright?
But the Angels also could sign Sabathia and use Haren to find offense in the trade market.