TODAY
Bills (+31⁄2) over GIANTS: This spread isn’t fair to Buffalo buffs, but this has been a remarkable season for teams emerging from sustained stretches of basebuilding, and not looking to fade this visitor with such a pass-happy, turnover-prone favorite. If we knew that Big Blue would at least try to establish the run, fine … but we’ll pay to see it.
Rams (+15) over PACKERS: Given St. Loo’s trials and errors, this looks impossible, with depleted Rams secondary … and especially because the Packers took their sweet time settling in and still took the Falcons to the woodshed in what should have been a tough technical spot for Green Bay. Do know that the Packers haven’t covered a number -14 since Forrest Gregg signed on as coach in 1984. Mr. Rogers and friends are risking peaking way too early.
Jaguars (+12) over STEELERS: Jags have had the against-the-spread hex on the Steelers for a while. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert will take his shots downfield, and Pittsburgh was in motivated desperation mode going into Titans matchup last week. Doubt that intensity will be matched here.
REDSKINS (+1) over Eagles: Philly’s failed to live up to outrageous hype, and now we have to calibrate how low they might sink. Though Wednesday’s players-only meeting might have cleared the air, Eagles rubbed it in at FexEx on Monday Night last year, and Redskins coach Mike Shanahan remembers. Washington defense playing to capabilities and chasing “reputation” teams who are “due” at bad numbers is the road to perdition.
LIONS (-41⁄2) over 49ers: After years in purgatory, both sides have found the “on” switch. Neither side’s in an enviable technical spot, but those tech readings are based on histories which are no longer relevant. Everybody’s raving about 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh (us, too!), but counterpart Jim Schwartz is at least one of the two best coaches in the NFC, and his confidence is infectious.
Panthers (+4) over FALCONS: It seems those negative on Atlanta were correct. Matty Ice isn’t hitting deep, and without that threat working, Carolina
— and the bold, brave spring of the tiger which quickens Cam Newton’s walk — appears worth riding, plus points, for at least another week.
Colts (+7) over BENGALS: Pot-stirring rumor-mongering regarding potential Indy trades of either Reggie Wayne or Robert Mathis concerns, though such moves might generate a shot at Stanford QB Andrew Luck (or some great trade bait) for an organization which hasn’t cranked out a respectable draft in years. In the here and now, Cincy’s a traditionally rotten pronounced home favorite, and even without Peyton Manning, Colts appear worth taking.
RAVENS (-71⁄2) over Texans: Minus Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, Houston’s bringing a knife to a gunfight. M&T Bank Stadium can be brutal for visitors.
Browns (+61⁄2) over RAIDERS: Oakland laid it out there in Houston to win one for Al Davis. Well-done … and this first home game since Davis’ passing will mean something to the Black Hole, too. … But Colt McCoy’s finding his receivers, Browns have had two weeks to dig deep for this, and like the Bengals, the Raiders as distinct chalk can turn out to be less than meets the eye.
PATRIOTS (-7) over Cowboys: Number looks appropriate, especially given how the Cowboys have played paint-to-the-wall-tight games all season. But Tom Brady and friends maintaining extended state of grace in terms of cranking out regular-season wins at Gillette, and so long as Wes Welker’s upright, don’t envision Red Sox Disease infecting this bunch.
Saints (-41⁄2) over BUCS: Third road game running for New Orleans, and the Bucs have played terribly in the Pirate Ship for two-plus seasons running. What to do? Will lean to Saints coach Sean Payton’s hot offense, even though Tampa Bay’s in redemption mode off 48-3 skunking.
BEARS (-3) over VIKINGS: Julius Peppers’ strained left knee MCL is a concern. This would seem to come down to RB Adrian Peterson’s effectiveness against Chicago rushing defense in this Donovan McNabb homecoming. Prefer minimal lay with Jay Cutler in outdoor affair, but unenthusiastic if no Peppers.
TOMORROW
Dolphins (+7) over JETS: Given the wild, wooly history of this pairing, expect to see bizarre strategems from desperate, winless Miami outfit with two weeks to conceive some kinky surprises, including six-lineman looks in attempt to aid struggling running game. Dolphins’ visit definite class relief for Gang Green, but the Jets and associated high expectations haven’t always merged neatly. Dolphins stand-in QB Matt Moore could surprise.
LAST WEEK: 4-8-1.
SEASON: 36-35-5.