Sandy Alderson will have to be a magician in the next few days to pull a no-doubt, high-end prospect out of a hat — and out of another organization’s system — in exchange for Carlos Beltran.
Beltran is the best bat that will be traded between now and 4 p.m. Sunday. Unfortunately for Alderson that is where his advantages end.
“They are not getting a top-40-ranked prospect [in baseball] for Beltran even if they eat all the money [left on his contract],” said an executive from a team that expressed interest in the slugger.
For example, the Braves want Beltran, but an AL official who has spoken to his Atlanta counterparts said: “There is no way the Braves give them one of their top four pitching prospects: [Mike] Minor, [Julio] Teheran, [Aroldys] Vizcano or [Randall] Delgado.”
The Mets have had particular interest in Minor.
The Mets hope the ticking clock toward the deadline will push a suitor to yield a top prospect, and last night a person involved in discussions described the Rangers as aggressively pursuing Beltran, with the Braves and Red Sox as the two other most interested teams.
That means, for now, the Phillies and Giants have receded in talks.
Still, even with multiple teams interested, the Mets likely will have to settle for a package of B-level youngsters because, as one NL assistant GM said, “top prospects are totally overvalued and have never been tougher to pry away even in a perfect deal.”
These are the hurdles that leave the Mets in a less-than-perfect situation with Beltran:
1. LITTLE LEVERAGE
— They are not in a playoff race, so they cannot believably tell teams they will keep Beltran the rest of the year unless they get what they want. Plus, Beltran’s contract stipulates he cannot be offered arbitration.
If the Mets had the arbitration card, they could consider keeping Beltran, offering arbitration and getting two high draft picks next June if Beltran signed elsewhere. The peril would be if Beltran accepted arbitration, which would net a one-year contract in the $18 million range. However, the Mets could probably trade him in that scenario, especially if (like now) they were willing to eat a few million bucks.
2. LITTLE DESPERATION
— The Yankees are not on Beltran, but the Red Sox, Rangers, Phillies, Braves and Giants are. However, using Baseball
prosectus.com’s playoff odds, those six teams have anywhere from an 87.4 percent (Texas) to 99.7 percent (Boston) chance of reaching the playoffs. Thus, the most obvious suitors are not feeling frantic to add Beltran.
Organizations that stress statistical analysis say acquiring an elite outfielder would be worth roughly two extra wins the rest of this year, and none of those Big Six teams currently feels pressure to add those two wins in exchange for elite prospects.
3. BELTRAN’S LEVERAGE
— Beltran has a no-trade clause and prefers the NL. NL Central clubs such as Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Cincinnati are interested and unlike, say, the Braves and Phillies likely will need the extra few wins to get into the playoffs.
Beltran used a strong run with the Astros in 2004 to get his current mega-contract. But would a small-market club not assured of making the playoffs convince him to waive his no-trade? Maybe.
However, if he uses his no-trade to strong-arm his way to an NL playoff frontrunner, the field is limited to Philly, Atlanta and San Francisco — and eliminates those very interested Rangers.
4. COST
— Few teams can add $6 million (roughly what Beltran is owed in 2011). Those that can (an executive suggested Boston, San Francisco and Pittsburgh) would, in turn, give up lesser prospects. Said one AL official: “To get even a B-plus-level prospect, I think the Mets are going to have to eat a chunk of that contract.”
5. HISTORY
— Walk-year position players do not elicit big trade returns. The 2008 Angels and 2009 Cardinals gave up a pittance for, respectively, Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday, walk-year sluggers who also had Scott Boras as an agent. And Teixeira and Holliday were making less money than Beltran, did not come with his injury history and both could be offered arbitration.
In 1997, the A’s dealt the best hitter available, free-agent-to-be Mark McGwire, to the Cards for the underwhelming trio of Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews and Blake Stein. That was the last trade in the tenure of Oakland’s longtime GM. A fellow named Sandy Alderson.