BOSTON — What if the sure thing, isn’t?
What if after all these months of the Yankees worrying about everything that comes after CC Sabathia in the rotation, they actually have a very specific concern about their ace: Namely that their pitching Superman finds the Red Sox to be Team Kryptonite?
Look, the Yankees would sign up right now to advance from today to Game 1 of the AL Championship Series against the Red Sox, if it meant eliminating all the middlemen, specifically finishing the regular season and playing a Division Series round. You bet they would take their chances, Sabathia against Boston in Game 1 in October, such is the belief in their No. 1 starter, regardless of how poorly the big lefty has performed against the Red Sox in 2011.
But it is hard to ignore how terrible the Yankees rotation has been against Boston this year, in general, and how woeful Sabathia has been, in particular. Because Sabathia is supposed to be the security blanket to an otherwise uncertain rotation. Because the Yankees and Red Sox are forever measuring themselves against each other. And because an AL pennant very well may go through Fenway Park.
And think about the degree of difficulty of beating Boston four times in seven games if the Yankees cannot get excellence from Sabathia.
With a 10-4 triumph yesterday, the Red Sox are 9-2 this year against the Yankees. The major reason for the discrepancy is this: Both teams have superb offenses, but Boston’s lineup beats up Yankees starting pitching to a much greater degree than the other way around.
In 11 games against Boston, Yankees starters are 0-9 with an 8.97 ERA, averaging a shade under five innings an outing. They have just one quality start, by Bartolo Colon on May 13, and have yet to have a starter complete seven innings.
But the most troubling aspect is this: Sabathia — their everyday life preserver — has failed to save them. He is 16-2 with a 2.11 ERA against every team that is not Boston, and 0-4 with a 7.20 ERA against the Red Sox. That is the difference between Cy Young and Anthony Young, and it actually might be the difference between Sabathia winning a Cy Young Award in 2011 or not. He is the first Yankee to lose four times in the same season to the Red Sox since Pat Dobson in 1975.
Essentially, Sabathia has failed to do for the Yankees what Josh Beckett has done for the Red Sox. Beckett, who will start the series finale tonight, is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA against the Yankees in 2011.
Sabathia said because he has beaten the Red Sox in previous seasons, he is unconcerned about the record.
“When I am right, I can beat anybody,” he said.
Nevertheless, you had better be right. Sabathia did not have his best stuff in his previous start in Chicago, yet still allowed just two runs in eight innings. However, those Sox were White and possess a lineup littered with soft spots to capitalize on even when a savvy starter such as Sabathia has less-than-optimum stuff. These grinding Red Sox have limited soft spots, so if Sabathia lacks fastball command and leaves pitches up, as he did yesterday, the results will be painful.
And the Red Sox pose another problem. As manager Joe Girardi said, “Their lefties hit lefties and their righties really hit lefties.” Which eliminates more soft spots.
Sabathia cannot just find a lefty to overpower. Sabathia, for example, has surrendered just two homers to lefties in 175 at-bats this year, one by Adrian Gonzalez and a three-run shot yesterday by Jacoby Ellsbury that blew the game open in the fourth inning. Carl Crawford was the first lefty since July 27 of last year to have a three-hit game against Sabathia.
Sabathia entered having yielded seven runs in his previous eight starts, a period of 622⁄3 innings and 234 batters faced. And then Sabathia allowed seven runs between the third and fourth innings, a span of 14 plate appearances.
Now, Sabathia is not the type to lose confidence, and he might have two more shots at Boston this regular season and maybe two or three if there really is an ALCS showdown. And as pitching coach Larry Rothschild said: “I don’t know if he pitches against them three more times that it doesn’t even out.”
Boston manager Terry Francona added: “It’s good that we’ve had some success against him because at some point you’re going to have to beat a guy like that in an important spot. I think we’ll see him again.”
For now, though, the AL East is tied rather than the Yankees having a cushion because their starters cannot handle the Red Sox. The safety net was supposed to be Sabathia. However, against Boston in 2011, the Yankees ace has been more A.J. than CC.
joel.sherman@nypost.com