The qualifying offer teams have to extend to either keep their own free agents or gain a draft pick if the free agent departs will rise to $14.1 million this offseason, The Post has learned.
The figure, which was $13.3 million last year, is derived from the average salary of the top 125 players in the majors. Nine players received the tender last year: David Ortiz (Red Sox), Josh Hamilton (Rangers), Michael Bourn (Braves), Kyle Lohse (Cardinals), Adam LaRoche (Nationals), B.J. Upton (Rays) and the Yankees’ Hiroki Kuroda, Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher. All nine declined, though both Ortiz and Kuroda eventually worked out deals to stay with their teams.
If the player leaves, the team gains a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds of the draft. For example, the Yankees received two sandwich picks for losing Soriano and Swisher. The team that signs such a player loses a first-round pick if it has one of the 20 best records, as the Yankees did in 2013, or a second-round pick, if has one of the 10 worst records, as the Mets did in 2013. Thus, the Mets can sign a free agent who has been given the qualifying offer this offseason and lose only their second-round pick next June. The Yankees would lose their first-round pick.
The expectation is teams will aggressively tender players this offseason because:
1. Even if they think $14.1 million is a bit of an overpay, teams are guaranteed the player for just one season if he agrees — and the player has no protection against being traded. Many teams would rather have a player for one year at $14.1 million without long-term risk than, say, three years at $30 million.
2. If you want to keep the player and he is older or a second-tier free agent, it hurts his market value to have the qualifying offer attached. That could help teams retain a player on a more favorable long-term deal. For example, Lohse and LaRoche ultimately signed elsewhere last offseason, but their markets were badly hurt because clubs did not want to sign those good, but not great, players to long-term deals and forfeit a first- or second-round pick.
3. Teams value draft picks and this is a way to stockpile them.
Thus, the Yankees will tender the $14.1 million to Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Kuroda. They want to retain each, but in the worst case, they still would get three extra sandwich picks if they fled.
It is possible Granderson, coming off such an injury-plagued season, could decide to take the tender and try to rebuild his value, especially knowing teams will be leery of giving him a long-term deal and losing a draft pick. Cano obviously will reject it because an outside team willing to give the second baseman what he will receive in free agency will hardly care about also giving up a draft pick.
Kuroda made $15 million last year and would probably ask to earn at least that for one year to stay. But Yankees officials believe there is a strong chance Kuroda might return to Japan to finish his career. In that scenario, obviously, the Yanks would not get a draft pick.
Because of the draft-pick compensation rule, the Yankees had reason – beyond the obvious motivation of trying to win – to want Phil Hughes to have a strong season. But after Hughes’ 2013 disaster, the Yanks probably will not offer him the tender in fear he would take it and they would have to pay him $14.1 million next year. Free agents such as Boone Logan and Joba Chamberlain or LaTroy Hawkins are not offered the tender because they would take it and get paid dramatically more than the market would offer.
These players are all but certain to be tendered: Cano, Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury, Cincinnati’s Shin-Soo Choo, Kansas City’s Ervin Santana, Atlanta’s Brian McCann and Seattle’s Kendrys Morales. St. Louis’ Carlos Beltran and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum are probable, and Texas’ Nelson Cruz and Boston’s Stephen Drew and Mike Napoli will be interesting calls.
We will find out the answers to these questions soon enough. Teams have until five days after the World Series concludes to offer the tender. Players then have a week to accept or reject the bid.