LANSING, Mich. — The Republican primary races in Michigan and Arizona have tightened considerably one week before the votes, with slim margins between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in both states, according to two new polls by Public Policy Polling.
The PPP survey of likely Republican primary voters in Michigan, released late Sunday, showed that Santorum now leads by just four percentage points, with 37 percent of their support, compared to Romney’s 33 percent.
The poll also showed Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continuing to trail, with 15 percent and 10 percent respectively.
The Michigan race has tightened up considerably over the past week, with Romney making strong gains and Santorum dipping slightly.
PPP’s previous survey released Feb. 13 showed Santorum holding a 15-point lead in the state, with 39 percent of Republican primary voters backing him and 24 percent supporting Romney. Paul received 12 percent in that poll, while Gingrich had 11 percent.
Michigan’s Feb. 28 primary is considered a key test for Romney, who has cast himself as a native son in the state where his late father, George Romney, served as governor through most of the 1960s.
The PPP survey of Arizona, which also holds its primary on Feb. 28, showed Romney with just a slim lead over Santorum.
In that survey, released Monday, Romney was in first place with 36 percent of likely primary voters’ support, while Santorum followed close behind with 33 percent. Gingrich was third with 16 percent and Paul was fourth with nine percent.
Romney has been widely favored to win the Arizona primary, in part because it is home to a large community of Mormons who share the candidate’s faith. But these latest results show his lead to be more precarious than expected.
“Mitt Romney’s holding onto a small advantage in Arizona right now,” said PPP President Dean Debnam. “The big thing to watch over the next week will be whether Newt Gingrich’s supporters stick with him or jump ship to Santorum because he’s a more viable candidate. If that happens this race could get even closer.”
PPP’s Michigan survey was conducted of 602 Republican primary voters between Feb. 17 and Feb. 19. Its margin of error is four percentage points.
The Arizona poll was conducted of 412 likely Republican primary voters, also between Feb. 17 and Feb. 19. Its margin of error is 4.8 percentage points.