The line among the politicos on the Right who oppose Mitt Romney is that the heart and soul of the Republican Party doesn’t like and doesn’t trust the Republican frontrunner. Well, it’s true that professional conservatives (those conservatives who make their living in and around politics) genuinely don’t like him. And non-professional conservatives who live and breathe politics 24 hours a day, and therefore know more about what’s going on than most ordinary voters, don’t trust him.
But the argument that these people represent the views and beliefs of the Republican rank and file is going to have to undergo some revision after Romney’s victories in Michigan and Arizona last night.
Yes, his home state of Michigan was closer than Romney expected it would be a month ago (although not two weeks ago, when one poll had Rick Santorum winning there by 12 points). But the key detail in the exit polling from Michigan was this: Romney won the votes of self-described Republicans by 10 points, 47 percent to 37 percent.
The fact that Romney didn’t win by a landslide in Michigan was apparently the result, in whole or in part, of mischievous Democratic voters trying to weaken him. Exit polls suggest that those voters added as much as 3.5 percentage points to Santorum’s total.
Santorum slaughtered Romney among those Michigan voters who said they wanted a “true conservative,” by a margin of 57-17. But those voters made up only 12 percent of the electorate.
Most of the commentary you read and hear about the GOP — especially from the Right itself — would lead you to think those highly ideological voters constitute a near-majority. The truth is more complicated.
Most Republican voters are out-and-out conservatives (indeed, 42 percent of all Americans describe themselves as conservative) — but they’re not necessarily tribal conservatives who are searching for someone ideologically pure to follow. Romney was more than conservative enough, it would appear, for a near-majority of Republicans in Michigan and Arizona.
That said, Romney did worse than he should, and that happened not because Santorum is such a contender, but because Romney keeps shooting himself in the foot he has put in his own mouth.
If Romney doesn’t break the pattern he has unfortunately established, he is going to make a blunder today and tomorrow in an interview or a campaign stop — and that blunder will have something to do with money.
After his stunning victory in Florida, he said he “didn’t care about the poor.” After his commanding victory in last week’s debate, he spoke about his wife’s “couple of Cadillacs” and his friends “who own NASCAR teams.”
These are mistakes he can’t afford, especially now that it appears he is gaining momentum among Republican voters.
Romney needs to take a cue from George W. Bush’s nearly flawless campaign mien in 2000 (say what you will about Bush, he was a brilliant retail politician) and remain focused on three major issues, get comfortable with the language he uses about them — and keep at it.
Don’t improvise, Mitt. Don’t relax. Don’t go off the cuff. Focus. Focus. Focus.
If he keeps getting in his own way, he will get to Tampa unnecessarily and pointlessly wounded. But if Romney can break the pattern, he will cruise to the nomination holding a hand far stronger than overconfident chortling Democrats — and the president himself — realize.