The Hall of Fame candidacies of Carlos Beltran and David Ortiz are going to tell us about the power of October.
We are going to learn if postseason genius can push a special player from the borderline of immortality all the way to enshrinement. From questionable to Cooperstown.
Does coming through when so many more are paying attention and so much more is at stake have a collateral akin to, say, winning MVPs or Cy Youngs?
A litmus test, in some fashion, came last year when borderline candidate Curt Schilling — a three-time Cy runner-up, but an unquestioned playoff maestro — fell well short of induction with just 38.8 percent of the vote, just more than half of the 75 percent needed.
Some of Schilling’s tally can be attributed to a ballot made overcrowded by having so many players tainted by steroids getting enough votes to stay eligible, but not enough to reach the Hall. That reality is not going to change anytime soon and, of course, Ortiz is going to have to overcome his own PED associations to muster the votes necessary.
Beltran’s candidacy seems to be gaining momentum as he remains a high-level performer into his late 30s while continuing to be among the best hitters in postseason history.
Over the last 25 years, Ken Griffey is clearly the best center fielder. And then there is a terrific cast of All-Stars who played the bulk of their careers in center: Beltran, Johnny Damon, Jim Edmonds, Steve Finley, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Kenny Lofton and Bernie Williams. I would argue Beltran was the best of the bunch, the one who combined the most high-end skills for the longest period.
Beltran’s detractors will discuss his motor. That he had 500-homer talent, but not the drive necessary for historic greatness. I don’t buy it. Teammates never surfaced who had a problem with how Beltran prepared or how much he cared. And players with 358 homers and 308 steals and an .854 lifetime OPS hardly should have to justify their careers.
In many ways, Beltran is a better version of Williams, another switch-hitter from Puerto Rico. Williams had power, but never exceeded 30 homers. Beltran has done so four times. Williams was fast, but a poor base stealer. Beltran has the best stolen base rate (86.5 percent) in major league history (minimum 300 steals). Williams actually won one more Gold Glove (four to three) than Beltran has, but no one who watched both would think Williams a better defender. Beltran was more instinctual, graceful and the owner of a far superior arm.
Even in the postseason, Williams was exceptional, Beltran has been Ruthian. Williams’ 22 homers are second all-time in the postseason, he had two walk-off dingers and was consistently clutch as a middle-of-the-order presence for a dynasty. But by being with the make-the-playoffs-annually Yankees, Williams basically played an extra season in the postseason with 545 plate appearances. Beltran has 16 homers in 181 postseason plate appearances. Mets fans may remember just one – Beltran taking a called third strike against St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright to end NLCS Game 7 in 2006. But Beltran’s 1.188 career playoff OPS speaks to his impact, and this October he is once again St. Louis’ most clutch figure.
Here is Beltran’s problem, however: Williams received just 9.3 percent of the vote in 2012 and 3.3 percent this year, which knocked him off the ballot because it is under 5 percent. Is Beltran that much more accomplished than Williams to get all the way to 75 percent?
Ortiz has larger problems. In 2009, The New York Times reported Ortiz was among the 100 or so players who were on a list of those who failed survey testing for PEDs in 2003. Ortiz confirmed he was informed he was on the list, but said he had never purchased or used steroids. The Players Association also said several discrepancies/issues exist that meant being on the list did not assure a player had failed a test.
And even if he had never been tied to Drug Hearsay, he would be hurt by another DH. No player identified mainly as a designated hitter has attained a Hall pass. Edgar Martinez has done the best, but his votes have stayed in the 32-36 percent range in his four years on the ballot. But few players have created the same sense of big-moment gravitas as Ortiz. Is that a counterweight? He is a drama king, the timeliest bat when the Red Sox broke The Curse in 2004 (Yankee fans remember all too well) and again during the 2007 championship run.
Thus, when he came to bat with the bases loaded in the eighth inning Sunday night, two outs and Boston down by four runs to Detroit in ALCS Game 2, this is what teammate Stephen Drew said he thought: “He is going to come through.”
Ortiz’s well-known nickname is Big Papi, but many of his current teammates call him Pun, short for Big Punisher, and he big-punished a first-pitch Joaquin Benoit changeup for a game-tying grand slam. David Ross described it “as old hat for Dave.”
It was electric, but no October Surprise. Nothing is when it comes to Ortiz and Beltran. Maybe the two clutch masters of this era are now on a World Series collision course.
That would really fuel the debate over whether Ortiz and Beltran are Hall Classics.