Sports

The Post’s Peter Vecsey forecasts first round of NBA Playoffs

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There’s nothing like repeatedly seeing the Eastern Conference’s seventh-best team on national TV in the so-called game of the week(end). The Knicks have been showcased five times on Sunday — topping Cardinal Dolan — including the past three. Compare that to twice for the Thunder and not a passing glance at the Spurs, two of the NBA’s slightly more successful attractions.

At least Saturday’s feature is a justifiable screening in that the Knicks’ juicy, playoff-ignition Heat head-on is against a rightful heir to the soon-to-be abdicated Mavericks’ throne. And, as histrionics would have it, against Pat Riley’s children from his third marriage.

Or has the statute of limitations expired regarding that outdated hostility? I suspect not by the hair on LeBron James’ chinny chin chin … that he plays with on the sidelines as much as he used to bite his nails.

Even if Padre Riles’ former family and fans are in a forgiving, forgetful frame of focus, a bloodthirsty platoon of paperboys or two is gory-bound to veer from their regular routes and revive the fax resignation story.

Commencement exercises have yet to begin, and I already have overdosed on the thought of how many times the nitworks will air Jeff Van Gundy hanging on to Alonzo Mourning’s leg.

Can Carmelo Anthony match LeBron for seven games? He’s certainly talented and mentally tough enough. But is he willing to do everything it takes to win, as he did with an April 17 triple-double against the Celtics? Especially find the cutter or the cross-court perimeter slinger? Though Melo notched 30.5 points in two regular-season losses, the Heat defense made life miserable for just about everyone else.

Who does Tyson Chandler guard, Chris Bosh or Udonis Haslem? Both must be guarded outside, which offsets Miami’s conspicuous lack of length and scoring underneath. The Knicks cannot afford to leave the occupied area and the rim unprotected.

Hoop du Jour scout Ross Kreines anticipates Mike Woodson regularly employing a zone: “It worked for the Mavericks in last year’s Finals.”

The Knicks have their injury concerns — Amar’e Stoudemire and Baron Davis — and the Heat have theirs. When you give up your body as impulsively as Dwyane Wade, you’re on a crash course to be the next Pete Reiser (look him up) and end your career prematurely. Clearly, the ever-mounting damage is taking its toll.

I steadfastly believe Iman Shumpert, if he stays home and doesn’t reach, can defend Wade and James. Well, at least better than he can Paul Pierce, who schooled Shumpert for the majority of his 43 points last week.

The Knicks’ lone shot to prevail is if J.R. Smith, Steve Novak and Mike Bibby, who may never be guarded, don’t miss too often when they don’t have a hand in their faces; nobody’s better at rapidly closing distances than the Heat. Because you know Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, Shane Battier and James Jones are going to bury their share of money balls.

“The Heat cannot settle for long jumpers,” advocates Kreines. “They should be in attack mode and let Chris Bosh catch the ball elbow-extended as he can take most bigs off the dribble. This will give them more spacing. Additionally, Erik Spoelstra needs to play LBJ more at the four.”

Pick: Heat in seven — if Stoudemire is a factor.

Afterthought: Series will be considered a success if Knicks keep it reasonably close and, while in South Beach, they don’t espouse love for Fidel Castro.

(1) Bulls vs. (8) 76ers

Late in the 1985-86 season, Bulls managing partner Jerry Reinsdorf and Jerry Krause commanded coach Stan Albeck to limit Michael Jordan’s minutes, staggering the increased time upon his return from a broken left foot with 15 games to go. With His Airness clamoring for markedly more daylight, a playoff spot available for the seizing, Albeck strayed over the boundary one evening by a smidgen. The “infraction” cost him his job after Chicago was bounced from the playoffs in three games.

Two seasons ago, general manager John Paxson had it out withVinny Del Negro in the coach’s office after Del Negro failed to follow management’s directive to the letter and played rehabilitee Joakim Noah a minute or two too much. Despite two-for-two playoff plunges, Del Negro, too, was fired.

This season, Reinsdorf and Paxson, now a VP, devised a foolproof plan to make sure coach Tom Thibodeau wasn’t tempted to overuse Derrick Rose, who missed 27 games because of assorted ailments. They banned Rose from playing in six of 11 games down the stretch once he returned to active duty April 8 following a dozen straight in dry-dock.

That made Thibodeau exceptionally unhappy, divulges a Bulls source. It impaired Rose’s ability to refine his shooting rhythm (3-for-11 on field goals against the Pacers on Wednesday) and the team’s capacity to hone its harmony.

“Derrick was fine when he practiced, at shootarounds and walkthroughs,” the source said. “He was all set to go and then management shut him down for no reason.”

Thibodeau also is allegedly furious nobody in management has spoken to him about a contract extension. Last year’s Coach of the Year, favored to repeat this season, something that has never been done before, has a one-year team low-salaried option (roughly $1.1 million) left on his contract.

“Tom feels disrespected,” the source underlined. “Tension is definitely thick between him and management.”

The Sixers’ Evan Turner wisely clarified his (distorted?) remarks about thinking Philadelphia caught a break by playing Chicago instead of Miami. In the paraphrased words of Keith Richards, “The 76ers are just happy to be here, happy to play anywhere.”

Where do they turn for perpetual offense, particularly at crunch time, against a team that crowds you all game long, not just when the going is good? I’m thinking Clarence Weatherspoon. And shouldn’t Doug Collins know by now who will start the next game? Mr. Emotional still doesn’t have a center or small forward he trusts. Or does he need a full 82-game schedule to evaluate talent?

“It’s like closing time at the bar,” jabs Philly native Richie Kalikow, “Just pick somebody and go with them!”

Bulls forward Luol Deng is my pick for the league’s most underrated player. C.J. Watson is the second-best starter/sixth man after the Thunder’s James Harden. Rip Hamilton is healthier than he has been in months. Taj Gibson and Omer Asik provide a dependable security system whenever Noah and Carlos Boozer falter and even when they don’t. Whose long-distance release is more snappy and accurate lately than that of Kyle Korver, who has developed an undisturbed toughness? And John Lucas’ warp-speed kid would be NBA’s most improved had he played a little more.

Pick: Bulls — my choice to win it all if Rose doesn’t break down — in four or fewer.

Afterthought: Am I the only one who sees “Chicago” and “Philadelphia” and doesn’t pine for Chet Walker?

(4) Celtics vs. (5) Hawks

Playoff success is all about matchups (Pierce and Joe Johnson nullify each other), ball control, health (Hawks forward Al Horford’s absence will be striking) and who’s peaking. The Celtics backcourt of Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley is too much for Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich to handle. Boston figures to smother the Hawks at one end, so they can’t easily get into their sets, and attack at the other.

Think of all the money Danny Ainge could have squandered elsewhere had Doc Rivers turned Kevin Garnett into a center before Shaq and Jermaine O’Neal. K.G. has owned Josh Smith the past five years. Versus K.G., Smith averages 13.0 points and 36.1 percent shooting. His averages against everyone else: 16.7 and 47.7. On the flip side, Garnett is 15.9 and 52.5 percent against the masses during that same span and 18.2 and 52.3 against Smith, who is coming off his finest season and must keep K.G. from mentally taking him out of his game. Or will Rivers give Garnett a break and stick undersized Brandon Bass on Smith?

Pick: Celtics in six as Larry Drew gets all there is to get from his Hawks.

Afterthought: If you knew column contributor Irwin Sirotta’s Ancient Men of the C’s would go 24-10 over their final 34 games, then I’m guessing you also knew John Edwards was a dedicated family man.

(3) Pacers vs. (6) Magic

It’s like the class clown has been sent to the principal’s office, or in Dwight Howard’s case, the surgeon for disk surgery. Stan Van Gundy’s undistracted pupils can now relax and simply play ball, win or lose, with the emphasis on the latter.

Van Gundy’s last Stan(d) is guaranteed to be unsightly. Indiana has great (Frank) Vogel range, getting nightly production from Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George. Meanwhile, the Magic’s Glen (Petulant Child) Davis has been hobbled with an ankle sprain, but, hey, Hedo Turkoglu is back in action and older, slower and lower-jumping than ever.

How many had George Hill running the Pacers’ show? The best thing to happen to them might have been Darren Collison getting hurt. Since Hill assumed control, he has 49 assists and a mere eight turnovers in nine games. Plus, he’s a physical ball hawk. Good luck, Jameer Nelson.

Pick: Pacers in five.

Afterthought: Sometime during the series, count on Howard to add the Colts to his desired destination list.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Spurs vs. (8) Jazz

No one in the league was more masterful at managing minutes and giving millionaires days off to rest than dictator Gregg Popovich. The four-time winner even gave Ferris Bueller the day off. This never would happen if David Stern were still alive.

Pop plays 12, trusts 11. Tim Duncan looks the best he has in years, even drawing double teams, which hasn’t happened in my time. Both Tony Parker and Duncan should have at least been in the thought process of MVP media voters.

San Antonio’s perimeter and bench is far superior, but Utah has the frontcourt edge with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter vs. Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner.

Pick: Spurs in five.

Afterthought: Bonner booked The Hold Steady to play an after-game concert at the AT&T center, so he has a pass from column contributor Gregg Siegel and yours truly on all criticism.

(2) Thunder vs. (7) Mavericks

The Mavericks give me no reason to believe in them. Just never got it going. Owner Mark Cuban should have re-signed Chandler for multiple years rather than put the defending champs in position to fail. I don’t care if he gets Howard and Deron Williams, he blew a splendid opportunity to accomplish a do-over.

Dirk Nowitzki has been an MVP-type player for the last 35 games or so. If all goes well with Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion and Vince Carter, they might win a game, maybe two, with last year’s MVP at center. But it would take the same kind of flow they had in the playoffs last year and they have not shown that this year at all.

Pick: Thunder in five.

Afterthought: Derek Fisher says his teams’ books are beyond reproach, and that’s good enough for me.

(4) Grizzlies vs. (5) Clippers

Memphis is reputedly deeper (led by healthy Rudy Gay) and, with an aftertaste of last season’s playoff success, seemingly more disciplined than a season ago. However, Zach Randolph’s surgically repaired comeback diminishes his impact. Then again, a Memphis source says his minimized input/attitude is due to being demoted for a few games by coach Lionel Hollins, who continues to look for reasons to bring him off the bench.

While there’s balance (seven players averaged in double figures) and some playoff resumés(Chris Paul/Hornets, Mo Williams/Cavaliers, Kenyon Martin/Nuggets), this is where Chauncey Billups would have earned all that money Camp Cablevision is paying him.

If I’m Hollins, I began fouling Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan as soon as they change out of their business casuals.

Pick: Clippers in seven unless Randolph is treated with proper respect.

Afterthought: Gilbert Arenas said he’s donating his playoff share to Javaris Crittenton’s legal defense fund.

(3) Lakers vs. (6) Nuggets

If there is a silver fringe around the dark consequences that figure to result from Metta World Peace’s latest on-court brain cramp, I’d say it’s that Mike Brown must come to his senses and give Jordan Hill the minutes that Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy have both taken turns squandering all season long,” column contributor Clifford Burton bashes. “And perhaps he’ll continue to develop Devin Ebanks as well. … Then again, it is Mike Brown we’re talking about here, so we’ll see.”

Is there a better under-the-radar-gun point than the Nuggets’ Ty Lawson, who had nine 20-plus-point games this month? If Ramon Sessions can stay in front of him, he will be the first in quite a while. I’m especially looking forward to seeing whether Aaron Afflalo, one of the best young perimeter defenders, can put a cramp in Kobe Bryant’s shin-dig.

Pick: Lakers in six.

Afterthought: Not that Afflalo needs extra incentive, but Kobe scorned the Nuggets’ decision to re-sign their free agent for $38.75 million.

peter.vecsey@nypost.com