‘MEISTER’ RIGHT: Bodemeister trains on the track yesterday for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby. (Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — On the eve of the Kentucky Derby, I don’t have the faintest idea who is going to win. But then, neither does anyone else.
When a master craftsman like D. Wayne Lukas, who has won 13 Triple Crown classics, studies the 20-horse field and throws up his arms in bewilderment, what chance does an apprentice like I have?
“It’s so deep and talented, one of the best fields I can remember,” Lukas said. “I can’t pick a favorite, I can’t pick a winner.”
Mike Harrington, an old trainer who will saddle Creative Cause, said: “Any one of 10 horses could win it.”
So this 138th running of the greatest horse race in America becomes the Dart Board Derby, where throwing a dart may make as much sense as analyzing form, pedigree, speed figures, distance and jockeys.
The problem is that modern racehorses — fragile, over medicated and sparingly raced — come to the Derby with so few races on their resumes that nobody can realistically evaluate their potential. It’s only when they lay it down in the Derby that the chaff is separated from the wheat.
Compounding this Derby is the uncertain pace at which it will be run. With a tearaway speedster such as Trinniberg in the field, the race could be run at suicidal fractions, effectively nullifying the other quality speed horses such as Bodemeister, Hansen, Union Rags, Gemologist, Take Charge Indy and set it up for a late rushing plodder.
But if Trinniberg sets sane fractions, the back markers will not have a prayer against the talented bunch up front.
So, what to do? I’m looking to cover both contingencies.
Easily the most impressive performance by any horse prepping for the Derby was Bodemeister’s rout of the Arkansas Derby, which he won by nearly 10 lengths, beating one of the best horses in the country, Secret Circle. His speed superiority towers over the field. He might be anything.
Harrington said: “He’s a freak.”
He will need to be to overcome the Derby’s most enduring jinx. Bodemeister never raced as a two-year-old and no horse like that has won the Derby since 1882. But the old rules don’t seem to apply today, so I’m going with the freak.
All horses have negatives. Consider everyone’s favorite, Union Rags. In his two biggest assignments, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby, he found a way to lose. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, a French-born jockey, gifted and tough, but who likes to take his horses out the back, as they say. That style does not suit the front-pushing Union Rags.
Hansen won the Breeders’ Juvenile, but has not done much since except win the Gotham, a non-event in Derby history. He’s running the same speed figures as a two-year-old. He has not moved forward.
Gemologist is flawless. He has won all five starts, two at Churchill Downs. His speed figures have risen with every start, but his wide post 15 will test him. He comes from the same firm, WinStar Farms, who won the 2010 Derby with Super Saver.
The farm’s president, Elliot Walden, said, “Gemologist is the best horse we have ever brought to the Derby.” His opinion carries weight.
Then there are all the other contenders: Dullahan, who won the Blue Grass (he’s won two on synthetics, lost all three on dirt); Creative Cause, a real trouper who lost the Santa Anita Derby by a nose; Take Charge Indy, who ground out the Florida Derby by a length; I’ll Have Another, who won the Santa Anita Derby; Daddy Nose Best, who won the Sunland Derby; Done Talking, who took the Illinois Derby; Alpha who just missed the Wood Memorial, and Went the Day Well, who upset the Spiral.
No wonder the experts are confused and the morning line favorite is 4-1.
Still that may open the door for a longshot to spring yet another Derby upset. A horse like El Padrino, who boasts better Beyer speed figures than the vaunted Union Rags; Sabercat, who flew home to get third behind Bodemeister and Secret Circle in the Arkansas Derby; Daddy Long Legs, who won the Dubai Derby, even the forlorn Optimizer, who jetted home for second in the Rebel.
This is a Derby that appears to defy rational handicapping. Mister, hand me the dart!