Memorial Day means the start of summer for the greater populace. For those of us in the baseball universe, it means an end of sorts.
It’s the end of saying, “It’s early.”
The standings matter more now, spiritually. We’re approaching the 30-percent mark of the schedule, and teams soon will begin serious trade discussions to address their problems or build toward the future.
The most interesting teams are those in “turnaround” — those that posted a winning record last year and now have a losing record, or vice versa. Which of these turnarounds will stick, and which clubs will either ascend or regress back to their old ways?
There are currently 12 such teams, seven “losers turned winners” and five “winners turned losers.” I polled one official from each of the 17 “static” clubs, those on the same side of .500 as they were last year, to get their anonymous votes on how the turnaround teams will fare. The Blue Jays were not included because they finished .500 last year.
Here are your industry forecasts. A team’s “confidence rating” displays the percentage of voters who thought the team would post a winning record this season.
LOSERS TURNED WINNERS
1. (tie) Miami (72-90 last year, 26-22 this year)
94% confidence rating
Having already rebounded from a slow start this season, the Marlins received 16 of 17 “winning season” votes. Voters noted the presence of dominant players like Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Mike Stanton who can carry a team.
1. (tie) Washington (80-81, 29-18)
94% confidence rating
Like with the Marlins, only one of 17 voters thought their winning ways couldn’t be sustained. The team’s excellent pitching staff deserves credit for the positive votes.
3. Cincinnati (79-83, 27-20)
82%
confidence
rating
The 2010 National League Central champions generated 14 of 17 positive votes.
4. Cleveland (80-82, 26-21)
65% confidence rating
Eleven of 17 voters thought the Indians were for real. Some optimists cited the club’s starting rotation while others pointed to the lineup.
5. Baltimore (69-93, 29-19)
47%
confidence rating
The Orioles, arguably baseball’s biggest surprise, received support from eight of 17 polled. Concerns about the starting pitching and the ultra-strong American League East abounded.
6. White Sox (79-83, 26-22)
20% confidence rating
Many voters didn’t opine on the Chisox because they joined this list later in the week. Just one of five asked thought Robin Ventura’s club could keep its surge going.
7. Mets (77-85, 27-21)
18% confidence rating
Very little love for the locals. Just three of 17 voters have them finishing over .500. Voters cited the depth of the NL East and the Mets’ lack of pitching depth as the greatest obstacles for David Wright and the gang.
WINNERS TURNED LOSERS
1. Detroit (95-67, 23-24)
100% confidence rating
All 17 respondents thought the Tigers, who entered the season as heavy favorites to repeat as AL Central winners, would wake up and post a winning record.
2. Angels (86-76, 24-25)
94% confidence rating
Sixteen of 17 voters anticipate the Angels, who open a three-game series with the Yankees tonight, will climb over .500. However, one voter noted, “Their lineup outside of [Albert] Pujols isn’t very good.”
3. Boston (90-72, 23-24)
90% confidence rating
Like the White Sox, the Red Sox didn’t get all 17 voters’ attention; Boston spent much of this past week at .500. Nine of 10 voters expressed a belief that Bobby Valentine’s club would wind up with a winning record.
4. Arizona (94-68, 22-26)
76% confidence rating
Thirteen of 17 voters pegged the Diamondbacks to rebound and finish with a winning record. Arizona’s impressive roster and the NL West’s shallowness were noted.
5. Milwaukee (96-66, 19-28)
12% confidence rating
Only two of 17 voters figured that the Brewers could leap over the .500 mark. Virtually every voter noted how greatly the departure of Prince Fielder has hurt the team.