Eddie Arcaro, the late immortal jockey, used to say those of his profession, on average, contribute at most about 10 percent to a horse’s winning effort. Rarely, but sometimes, it hits 90 percent.
On Saturday, the Belmont Stakes offered a perfect illustration of how the actions and decisions of two jockeys led more to the outcome of the race than the horses themselves.
Mike Smith, a Hall of Fame rider with a glittering record, surrendered a huge advantage he held in the run through the stretch on Paynter. John Velazquez, aboard Union Rags, saw the opportunity and pounced. Their moves determined the result.
Smith is a rare breed. He has a habit of blaming himself for his defeats. When he lost the Breeders’ Cup Classic by a head on Zenyatta, he blamed his own mis-timed ride. When he lost the Kentucky Derby this year on Bodemeister, he blamed himself for setting too fast a pace. And Saturday, he blamed himself for Paynter’s loss in the Belmont.
“I’m such a perfectionist,” he said. “Union Rags should never have gotten through on me.”
Early in the race, Smith had them all over a barrel, nursing his horse through crawling fractions, the two in perfect rhythm. At the furlong pole, Smith still had them all over a barrel. A couple of lengths behind him, Union Rags was on the rail, going up and down in the same place, going nowhere.
Then Smith made a critical mistake. He hit Paynter left-handed with the whip. Paynter shied from the sting and lunged out, opening a hole on the rail wide enough for another horse to sail through. Velazquez said thank you, drove Union Rags through the gap, and got up to win by a neck.
Brilliant riding? Maybe. Velazquez was just as candid as Smith. In essence, he got lucky.
“When I saw Mike hit his horse left-handed with the whip,” Velazquez said, “I said to myself, ‘This could be my chance.’ I decided to stay there [on the rail] and wait for the hole to open. And it just happened and I got lucky.
“When it works, it’s brilliant. When it doesn’t, you’re a bum, basically.”
How true. If Smith had held his ground on Paynter, Union Rags would not have gotten through. He would have been bottled up because there was no room to go outside. And if that had happened, Velazquez would have been excoriated as a bum.
From his perch in the stands, Michael Matz, Union Rags’ trainer, saw what was going on and was having fits.
“It didn’t look like he was going to get through,” he said. “I was worried.”
Later, Matz said, “Johnny rode a brilliant race, and whether he got up there or not, he still rode a great race.”
Do you believe Matz would have thought that if Velazquez had not gotten through?
Velazquez, who will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame this summer at Saratoga, had the last say.
“It just happened that it worked out the way I thought it was going to,” he said, “and I looked like a genius, I guess.”
Former jockey Jerry Bailey will tell you nobody in the riding game today places a horse in a better position to win than Johnny V.
Bailey should know, because nobody ever placed a horse in a better spot to win than he did.
Still, the Belmont result affirmed trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ observation at Pimlico three weeks ago: “More Belmonts are lost through jockey error than any other race,” he said.
Today, Mike Smith would agree with him.This Belmont refuted in a magical way all the rotten publicity about drugs, thieves, cheaters and crooks that has battered racing in the past couple of years. Racing has its problems like other enterprises (see politics, business, clerics, unions, etc.) but this Triple Crown series drew record crowds and betting handles at the Derby and Preakness and an all time high for a non-Triple Crown at the Belmont. It’s been a hell of a run
The New York Racing Association may be falling apart but one thing is sure: It still knows how to stage the big event. Unlike Churchill Downs and Pimlico, it has no infield to accommodate massive overflows. It has to jam them all into the stands and somehow, it works. The 85,000 fans at the Belmont were treated to a marvelous thoroughbred spectacle, the game at its very best, under a bright sun, on a track as vast as it is beautiful.