The Yankees accomplished their first goal of 2011: reaching the playoffs and avoiding being the high-priced calamity the Red Sox became.
But the rules of engagement with the Yankees are understood, which means simply getting into the playoffs is never enough. Their mandate is 11 postseason victories. They have swept out the Twins in each of the past two years, but this season’s AL Central team is more formidable because the Tigers have a true ace and an overall more potent lineup.
These are the five keys to the Yankees in this Division Series:
IS CC AN ACE OR PROBLEM NO. 1?
The Yankees have worried so much about what is behind CC Sabathia all year, but the reality is they probably cannot advance in the postseason without the big lefty coming up huge. But ever since returning from two rain delays on July 26 to dominate the Mariners, Sabathia has not been the same pitcher.
He gave up double-digit hits in five of his final 10 starts, a period when the opposition hit .316 with an .858 OPS. The Yankees were just 5-5 in those games and Sabathia had a 4.06 ERA. In his opening 23 starts this year, Sabathia did not allow a single 10-hit game, held opponents to a .228 average with a .583 OPS. The Yankees were 17-6 in those games and Sabathia had a 2.56 ERA.
Sabathia has become particularly susceptible to the long ball, allowing 11 homers over 682/3 innings in his last 10 starts compared to six in 168 2/3 innings in his first 23. He simply has not had the location or finish with his fastball, the pitch that sets up his overall repertoire.
An AL scout said, “I don’t want to be unfair, he is still tremendous. He is still throwing strikes, competing, but I am not seeing the swing-and-miss pitch when he needs it. The depth and explosiveness of his pitches are not what they were.”
CAN ALEX BE GREAT?
Alex Rodriguez battled knee and thumb injuries, and, thus, fell well short of extending his record of 13 straight seasons with at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs. But he has talked the right talk about salvaging his year by authoring a few meaningful postseason moments that help the Yankees get a parade.
But is he capable?
Against the Tigers’ projected four starters (Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello), Rodriguez is 6-for-35 (.171) with one homer (off Verlander). Plus, he is just 2-for-15 with a homer off Detroit’s main set-up man, Joaquin Benoit. In addition, Rodriguez had to sit out the final game of the regular season with knee issues.
In the past, Rodriguez’s struggles could not only hurt the production of the team, but negatively impact the psyche, as well. That might not be the case now. But the last thing the Yankees want to deal with in the postseason is daily “what is wrong with Alex” stories.
CAN SPEED KILL?
The Tigers stole a major-league low 49 bases. That was 32 fewer than the White Sox, who had the second fewest in the AL. Austin Jackson had 22 steals to lead the Tigers. The next-highest total for anyone on the team was five.
In other words, the Yankees will not have to be consumed with shutting down a running game like they would have if they drew Texas in the Division Series. This allows Joe Girardi to more comfortably start Freddy Garcia in Game 3 or perhaps use A.J. Burnett out of the pen. Both are susceptible to the stolen base.
Conversely, Tigers catcher Alex Avila has thrown out 32 percent of base stealers, which is a fine mark, and only projected Game 4 starter, Rick Porcello, is particularly vulnerable to the running game. However, the stolen base was a major part of the Yankee attack this year and so expect the Yankees to continue to try to attack in this area. But Curtis Granderson all but shut down his running game late in the year and Brett Gardner all but shut down getting on base; and they are the main threats.
HOW LONG WILL MO GO?
The importance of closing a game was re-asserted on the final night of the season. The Braves’ Craig Kimbrel and the Red Sox’s Jonathan Papelbon both blew saves, and that pretty much sealed the greatest September collapses in major league history for both teams. Cory Wade could not close in Mariano Rivera’s place, and the Rays reached the playoffs.
You might remember that in 2009, seven of the eight closers in the postseason either suffered a blown save or loss and their teams were all eliminated largely due to those failings. The only closer who did not suffer such calamities was Rivera, and the Yankees won it all.
Now you have a closer duel of Jose Valverde, who led the majors in saves and did not blow one all year, vs. Rivera, the best postseason closer ever. One of the luxuries that first Joe Torre and now Girardi have enjoyed in October is the ability to unleash Rivera for more than an inning.
Rivera has produced more than three outs in a staggering 58 of his 94 postseason appearances, including six of 12 during the 2009 title run. But he is 41 now and we will have to see if he can handle it. He has only gotten more than three outs three times this year, and not done so since July 24.
However, the only AL team that Rivera has gone longer without blowing a save against than the Tigers is the Royals. The last time he did so against Detroit, Bobby Higginson hit a two-out, ninth-inning homer at the old Tiger Stadium on July 6, 1999. Since then, Rivera has gone 23 for 23 in saves against the Tigers, allowing one earned run in 371/3 innings, including the 2006 playoffs.
CAN THE SWITCHES TURN IT ON?
The Yankees moved Robinson Cano into the third slot to honor reality ‹ he is the best hitter on the team. But that is no secret. The Tigers know that, as well. That means Cano almost certainly will be pitched around as much as possible, forcing others to carry the load.
Rodriguez just might not be physically up to it. That puts more pressure on Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher. Now the Yankee lineup has worked best when they have switch-hitters flourishing. But Jorge Posada has stumbled so badly from the right side this year that he no longer can truly be considered a switch-hitter (he has not had a hit batting righty since June 30).
And Teixeira and Swisher have excelled much more from the right side than the left; their OPS from the left side is .779 and .763, respectively, compared to in the mid.900s against southpaw pitching. The Tigers are going to use four righty starters, however, so the Yankees are going to need impact from Teixeira and Swisher from the left side.
Plus, there are the poor postseason performances both have. Swisher’s .162 playoff average is the second-lowest in major league history for players with 100 at-bats and his .148 average for the Yankees is the lowest in team history for anyone with 75 at-bats. The feeling is that the high-strung, attention-seeking Swisher simply gets too revved up for these games.
In his two Yankee postseasons, Teixeira is hitting .170. He had a walk-off homer against the Twins in the 2009 Division Series. But his impact has been minimal. The feeling is that Teixeira’s swing is long with lots of holes, making him more vulnerable to the better pitching and more detailed scouting reports associated with the playoffs.
joel.sherman@nypost.com