For weeks we wondered who would have to face Justin Verlander, perhaps twice, in a short series. We have our answer now.
But the Yankees would be making a mistake to believe this a one-man team even if Verlander might win both the AL Cy Young and MVP. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are as formidable a No, 4-5 duo as exist in these playoffs. Detroit closer Jose Valverde has not blown a save and has a strong set-up crew in front of him. And the hottest starter going into this postseason is not the Tigers’ No. 1 starter, but their No. 2, Doug Fister.
With the help of five scouts, here is what the Yankees have to concentrate on to win this Division Series:
THE PEDRO THEORY
From 1998-2004, his time with the Red Sox, Pedro Martinez was the best pitcher in the majors and one of the best ever. Yet in that period he was 9-10 against the Yankees and 108-27 against all other teams, and the Red Sox were 10-17 against the Yankees when Pedro started and 128-48 against all others. The Yankees were able to beat the Pedro Red Sox because they worked the count to shorten his outings, their starters matched Martinez and their bullpen outpitched the Boston pen. That is the formula the Yankees need against Verlander — and one with which they are familiar.
The only team to beat Detroit twice this year when Verlander started was the Yankees; the Tigers were 25-7 in his other outings. CC Sabathia and Bartolo Colon at least matched him. The Yankees’ patient hitters made Verlander throw 114 and 127 pitches just to last six innings twice. And while the Yankees bullpen pitched five shutout innings in those games, Detroit’s gave up five runs in five innings and took the loss both times.
AS EASY AS 1-2-3
The might of the Tigers lineup is with Cabrera at cleanup protected by Martinez. So it does not take a genius to understand the Yankees must minimize the effectiveness of the first three hitters so they can, in particular, work to Cabrera with none on as much as possible; giving them the option to pitch around him frequently.
The Tigers’ top three hitters are all righties — Austin Jackson, Magglio Ordonez and Delmon Young — and all struggle against righties. So that will put a premium on a Yankees strength: righty relief with Rafael Soriano, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera. Phil Hughes might play a part in this at some point, as well. Jackson is hitless in eight career at-bats vs. Hughes. And it will be fascinating to see if Joe Girardi trusts A.J. Burnett out of the pen, because Ordonez, Young and Cabrera are a combined 9-for-43 (.209) against him with one homer.
Young will be facing the Yankees in the Division Series for the third straight year, having been with Minnesota the past two seasons. He has thrived since coming to Detroit and being moved in front of the cleanup-hitting Cabrera. One scout said: “Young is flourishing because people are throwing strikes with Cabrera behind him. You can’t throw this guy strikes. You still have to let him get himself out.”
AVOID THIS CAB
Cabrera does not have a great reputation beyond his hitting, but multiple scouts were in agreement that this was the most serious they have ever seen the veteran take his defense, baserunning and general demeanor on the field. But, of course, his main job remains being an offensive monster.
One scout said, “He is like [Albert] Pujols, just avoid him.” Another said, “Really, just walk him every time.” When pushed how to actually pitch to Cabrera, the scout said, “If you don’t keep him conscious of the hard stuff inside, you are done because his plate coverage is better than anyone in baseball. You must pound him in. If you hit him or walk him, fine.” Soriano and Rivera have combined to hold Cabrera to one hit in 11 at-bats.
And a key to Cabrera is Martinez’s presence. Cabrera had a .518 on-base percentage (44 walks) with runners in scoring position to show just how little teams wanted to pitch to him in big spots. However, he still hit .388 in those situations, which was second in the majors (minimum 100 plate appearances). The leader at .394 was Martinez, who also has the most homers (nine) by a visitor at the new Yankee Stadium in just 91 at-bats.
PERFECT ENDINGS
Valverde not only led the majors with 49 saves, he did not blow one all year. He can be a bit of a high-wire act (averages 4.2 walks per nine innings). But he found tremendous success this year by throwing his fastball more than ever, yet locating better at 92-94 mph than his familiar 95-96 mph.
But when you face the Yankees, you have to be able to shut down lefty hitters, and Detroit’s pen is strong in his area. The Tigers have two southpaws, Phil Coke (.215) and Daniel Schlereth (.174) who tame lefties, but they also have two righties who do. Joaquin Benoit, who was Soriano’s brilliant set-up man in Tampa last year, recovered from a brutal first five weeks to post a 1.36 ERA in his final 50 appearances. His changeup makes him particularly effective against lefties; importantly Robinson Cano is 1-for-14 against him.
And one scout called Al Albuquerque the “wild card of this series” because he could be a dominant sixth-seventh-inning figure. The righty permitted just 21 hits in 431Ž3 innings with 67 strikeouts in just 148 at-bats.
Lefties hit .176 off of him and righties .113. One scout said: “He is 95, 96 [mph] with a hard, hard slurve. He is a factor. He is hard to hit.”
DIGGING DOUG
No team made a better July trade than Detroit did for Fister. In fact, you can say both the Yankees and Tigers needed to find a No. 2 starter behind their aces, and only Detroit solved that issue. Fister pitched as well while with the Tigers as Verlander, going 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA down the stretch.
This allows Detroit to go into the series with greater confidence that it can survive a loss by its ace than the Yankees can. Fister throws 90-91 mph.
He will use both a curve and a slider, determining which one is best on any given day to emphasize. His changeup is a weapon vs. lefties. But the word that comes up from scouts often is “deception.” Fister is 6-foot-8 and has a unique downhill angle that throws off hitters. Plus, he is supremely confident in his abilities.
In his final start as a Mariner, Fister lost to the Yankees on July 26 at the Stadium, giving up a homer to Curtis Granderson in a game that will be remembered for Sabathia nearly throwing a perfect game. But when Fister pitches tomorrow, Sabathia will not be the opponent and he will not be backed by Seattle’s anemic offense.
joel.sherman@nypost.com