What will Arabs do after chasing away their despots? The question will get the beginning of an answer tomorrow, when Tunisia holds its first free elections.
Tunisia was the first nation to revolt in the wave that became the Arab Spring. Now it is voting is for a Constituent Assembly and a transitional government. The assembly is to write a constitution to replace the one imposed by the late despot Habib Bourguiba in 1959.
In other words, it must develop a common vision that can unite the Tunisians — no easy task. Today, Tunisia is divided by three rival visions.
One is that of the Islam-oriented parties and groups, with Ennahda (The Revival) in the lead. Banned under the deposed dictator Zine el-Abedin Ben Ali, Ennahda (initially a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood) has succeeded in uniting a variety of Islamist groups. Its leader, Rached el-Ghannouchi, says he is interested in the “Turkish model,” which allows for an Islamic government to operate in a secular society.
The second bloc is led by the Progressive Democratic Party of Naguib Chebbi, who says he is interested in America’s Democrat Party as a model. The PDP says it wants an economic system based on “the social market,” with the government playing a central role in distributing wealth and opportunities.
The vanguard of the third bloc is the Democratic Forum for Labor and Liberty, led by Mustafa Ben Jaafar. Despite its left-sounding name, the party is right-of-center and emphasizes the separation of religion and politics.
Because the election is based on proportional representation, none of the three blocs is expected to win an outright majority. As in post-Saddam Iraq, a coalition government seems inevitable. The question is: Who will lead such a coalition?
The Islam-leaning bloc has received massive financial support from oil-rich Arab monarchies, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It has also negotiated deals with the remnants of the fallen regime, who continue to wield influence.
The two pro-democracy blocs are supported by various Western European parties and wealthy Tunisians abroad. They can also count on Tunisians in Europe and North America, who’ll elect 18 of the 217 seats in the Constituent Assembly. Women, allocated 50 percent of the candidates by a new edict, are also expected to vote massively for pro-democracy blocs.
Three key questions face the men and women who will write the new constitution.
The first is whether or not to abolish the presidential system established in 1959. The Islamic bloc has so far hedged its bets by not adopting a clear position. The pro-democracy parties want a parliamentary system with the president playing a ceremonial role. Like Iraq, power would be concentrated in the hands of parliament, which would choose one of its members as prime minister.
The second question: the place of Islam, which the Islamic bloc demands be declared “the religion of state,” with Arabic as the official language. The pro-democracy blocs agree, provided the constitution acknowledges freedom of religion for all citizens.
Linked to this is the issue of shariah, or Islamic jurisprudence. The Islamist bloc demands reference to shariah as “the primary source of legislation.” That would violate the secular tradition set by the 1959 constitution.
Initially scheduled for last summer, the election was postponed for three months to allow the establishment of a proper registry of voters. Around 4 million people, some 54 percent of those eligible, registered and obtained electoral cards.
To ensure greater participation, the interim government decided to allow those eligible to vote by simply showing national identity cards. This provides a potential for fraud, as some may vote several times, using ID of the deceased. The practice was widespread under Ben Ali, helping ensure his repeated re-election with the 99.9 percent of the votes.
The good news is that the elections will be monitored by an independent body, with the help of hundreds of international observers. Tomorrow, Tunisia will have a taste of free elections for the first time. The hope is that it won’t be the last time, as well.