LOUISVILLE, Ky. — If the Breeders’ Cup has one enduring, unassailable fact of life it is that more champions come out of it than go into it.
Seldom has this truism been more apparent than this year. When the 15-race series launches today, not one division has a championship boxed, wrapped and ribboned. But by Saturday night, there will be a stack of them.
In a word, this Cup is going to be a star maker.
And nowhere is that more apparent than in the most coveted title of all: Horse of the Year. If any one of a few horses wins the Classic, they could snag it. But if an unsung longshot prevails, everything is up for grabs.
The Cup has four illustrious horses — Goldikova, the superlative French mare seeking her fourth straight Cup trophy; Havre de Grace, the dazzling domestic filly trying for the second time to whip males in the Classic; Uncle Mo, a truly sensational horse with something yet to prove; and finally, So You Think, who has a chance to prove he is the best Australian export since Phar Lap.
Cup races are extremely competitive and hard to win. They are doubly so to bet and win. The flip side is that in these races you can frequently get good prices on good horses.
A few short-priced horses are likely winners: Secret Circle in today’s Juvenile Sprint, Turbulent Descent in the Filly & Mare Sprint, My Miss Aurelia in the Juvenile Fillies, Union Rags in the Juvenile tomorrow and Goldikova in the Mile. The rest are lotteries.
Some trainers look dangerous. Bob Baffert has Secret Circle, Plum Pretty in the Ladies’ Classic, Euroears in the Sprint, The Factor in the Dirt Mile, Drill in the Juvenile and Game on Dude in the Classic. If he doesn’t win a couple he (and I) will be surprised.
Todd Pletcher’s best prospects may be Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty in the Classic. Around Churchill, a strong sentiment is running against Uncle Mo. They don’t like him. Chief among them is retired top jockey Jerry Bailey, who said, “Uncle Mo is by Indian Charlie, he doesn’t want to go a mile and a quarter. He’s been away for eight months, then a seven-eighths and a one-mile foundation. I don’t see it. I didn’t like his last two works, he was hanging out, bearing out and I never like to see that. He’s a great horse, but in this race there are too many negatives for me. He’ll have to be a Seattle Slew to overcome all this.”
So who does Bailey like? “Havre de Grace and Flat Out,” he said.
Another New Yorker, Bill Mott, is sitting on three or four aces. He has Royal Delta in the Ladies’ Classic, Courageous Cat in the Mile, Birdrun in the Marathon and To Honor and Serve and Drosselmeyer in the Classic. All have potential.
Mott has won six Cup races, three of them in the Ladies Classic. He’s bursting with enthusiasm for Royal Delta. “She’s been doing as well as any of our horses,” he said. “She’s worked extremely well over the track, she’s improving and coming into her own. We feel very good about her.”
He insists Birdrun will be a factor in the Marathon, and as for Courageous Cat, well, he ran Goldikova to half a length in the Mile two years ago and last out ran second in the Woodbine Mile.
“He’s a very nice horse,” said Mott. “But Goldikova is a great filly. If they didn’t think she was doing well, I don’t think she’d be here.”
If jockeys are your bet, the current hottest rider east of the Mississippi may be Corey Nakatani. He has some solid bookings: My Miss Aurelia in the Juvenile Fillies today, Jackson Bend in the Sprint, Regally Royal in the Turf Sprint, Ice Box in the Classic.
The favorites in the Classic offer little value. The race is jammed with speed, opening the way for a longshot closer, like Ice Box, Stay Thirsty, Drosselmeyer, Headache.
I’ll take my chances with them.