The Post will profile each of the nine Breeders’ Cup races to be run Saturday at Churchill Downs. The Countdown to the Cup spotlights potential nice-price winners as handicapped by reporter Ed Fountaine and columnist Ray Kerrison. Good luck.
3-year-olds and up. Grade 1. Purse: $3 million. Distance: 1-1/2 miles (turf). Post time: 4:45 p.m. Bets: WPS, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4.
ANALYSIS: This mile-and-a-half marathon on the grass with a bulging $3 million purse is a staple of the Breeders’ Cup designed specifically to woo top-class European turf stars to our shores, and it has worked. Eight of the last 10 runnings have been taken by Europeans because the U.S. does not produce long-winded stayers on the grass (or the dirt, for that matter).
So this year’s edition is crowded with Europeans looking to pick up an easy fortune. Five of the nine starters have crossed the Atlantic, and all of them are at the top of the odds. The favorite is Sarafina from the Aga Khan’s emporium, winner of three graded stakes in France before finishing up the track in the Arc.
Behind her is Await the Dawn from the Aidan O’Brien barn, followed by Sea Moon, third in the English St. Leger, and Midday, beaten a neck in this race last year.
LIVE LONG SHOTS: The last longshot to win was Better Talk Now at 27-1 back in 2004 at Lone Star Park, when only one European showed up.
That was then, this is now. The Europeans own the race, so there’s no point looking elsewhere.
THE BET: The smart bet would be to take a chance with the Europeans at a price, but there are none, so that leaves us with the U.S. rep, Brilliant Speed, who has never finished off the board on the grass. A modest wager on him, then put him under Sarafina in the exacta. Who knows? You might get lucky.