Cocked: Iranian soldiers man a military speedboat in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday, after Iran threatened to close the strategic waterway. (Parspix/ABACA)
Anyone wondering if we still need a strong US Navy should consider the current commotion over the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has decided to raise the tension over its nuclear-weapons program by threatening to shut down that all-important waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf if Washington and its allies tighten sanctions on its crude-oil exports.
“Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran’s armed forces is really easy,” Iran’s top navy commander told Iranian TV Wednesday, “easier than drinking a glass of water.”
World oil markets immediately swooned. Crude-oil prices spiked as high as $104 a barrel — then jumped back down once everyone realized the threat was largely idle.
The reason is America’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain. Its warships, including USS John C Stennis (CVN 74) carrier-strike group, with 90-some aircraft, are there to keep just such a nightmare from happening, by protecting one of the world’s most important maritime-trade choke points — the hub of the world’s oil supply.
But they may not be, if Congress doesn’t get its act together and stop the automatic sequestration of federal spending, including at the Pentagon. One out of every five active US warships could end up on the beach — with few if any replacements.
That could turn idle threats like Iran’s into full-fledged global catastrophes.
Forty percent of the world’s traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz — more than 15.5 million barrels a day. That includes half the oil imported by China and 90 percent of what India consumes. Two-thirds of the oil produced by Saudi Arabia passes through the straits — and almost all of Iran’s own crude exports and gasoline imports.
From that point of view, Iran’s effort to close the straits with mines or anti-ship-missile attacks would seem suicidal. That is, unless the threat alone is enough to force the West to back off on sanctions in order to stop marine-insurance rates from rising through the roof and crude prices from spiking toward $200 a barrel.
Who will keep that from happening? Certainly not China or India.
The Royal Navy, which used to protect the Persian Gulf and the world’s other key international waterways, sank into strategic obsolescence half a century ago, thanks to budget cuts like the ones coming for our forces. Only today’s US Navy, with its 285 ships and submarines — and the men and women who handle them — keeps that oil safely flowing, along with the rest of the maritime trade on which our prosperity and that of the globe depend.
When Iran made its threats, the spokeswoman for the Fifth Fleet simply said: “Any disruption will not be tolerated.” The world relaxed, knowing we still have the muscle to back up that promise.
Indeed, any bold naval strategist would see that beefing up the Fifth Fleet with another carrier group could turn the threat of closing the Hormuz Strait back on Iran.
If America decides that it would deny passage of Iran’s oil through the gulf, it could force Iran’s economy to freeze up almost overnight. Meanwhile, stealth and carrier-based strikes could deal with any Iranian missile sites aiming to attack American ships in the region — or even threaten Iran’s major oil-production and -shipping facilities, 90 percent of which are in the gulf or just off shore.
President Ronald Reagan did something similar back in 1987-88, when Iran tried the same threat. Our Navy provided armed escort for tankers passing through the Gulf, sinking Iranian warships and crippling its oil platforms along the way. His actions almost toppled the Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime then. Such a move could do the same to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad now.
But boldness isn’t the order of the day these days. So we and the world sit back and wait, knowing that we have options in dealing with the Middle East’s most dangerous dictatorship, options given us by having a world-class navy.
But we won’t if budget cuts send our fleet to the same dismal shore as Great Britain’s not so very long ago.
Arthur Herman’s book “Gandhi and Churchill” was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize in 2009.