TAMPA — The most important locker in Robinson Cano’s life these days is not his own, but the empty one two stalls over at the Yankees’ spring complex.
There is Alex Rodriguez’s nameplate. And there is some of his stuff inside the cubicle. But there is no occupant.
Alex Rodriguez looms over this camp, lurks over the organization’s current and future plans, and swirls around no individual more than Cano.
For a baton pass may already have been occurring in which Cano was the most feared hitter in the Yankees lineup. But that is starker now with A-Rod sidelined for at least a half a season following hip surgery and about 100 homers having vacated the roster.
Derek Jeter is recovering from an ankle fracture and Mark Teixeira has been regressing for several years now and Curtis Granderson has morphed into an athletic version of Adam Dunn.
This leaves Cano — the most talented, prime-aged Yankee — as The Man in a way he has never before encountered, a burden that arrives along with his walk year, when success or failure can be worth tens of millions of dollars. Even if Cano is able to table all pressures and concerns — as he promised to do yesterday — and performs at an MVP caliber in 2013, well, there is still that empty locker.
Because the Yankees have nothing these days but regrets about giving A-Rod a 10-year, $275 million contract following his MVP-winning 2007 campaign. That empty chair haunts the decision makers, leaves them more averse to impulse buying with no long-term cautions.
There are five years at $114 million remaining on A-Rod’s deal, and the Yankees see the $27.5 million they will be charged annually toward the luxury tax payroll as the greatest impediment to their obsession to get under $189 million in 2014.
Now here comes Scott Boras — orchestrator of the A-Rod deal — with Cano as his client and an expectation that the opening bids need to be in the 10-year, $20 million-$25 million range. The war drums already are beating. Cano confidants have said the Yanks received a break on his current deal (signed with a different agent) and there will be no discounts this time.
History suggests Boras clients elect free agency and the high bidder often wins. In the not too distant past, we could expect that to be the Yankees, especially when it came to a homegrown star. But in case you missed it, the Yankees have gotten more circumspect and frugal as the Dodgers, Angels, Tigers and several others have grown financially bolder.
The industry will have some pause because Cano will be a free agent at age 31. He has a thick bottom half, which makes you wonder how long he can effectively play second base and what his value becomes if he has to move elsewhere or natural age-related decline sets in. According to equivalency scores on Baseballreference.com, Cano’s second base comparables are Carlos Baerga, Jose Vidro, Chase Utley and Carlos Guillen, all of whom suffered statistical and/or health decay in their late 20s or early 30s.
Right now, Utley’s $85 million is the most total dollars ever given a second baseman and CC Sabathia’s $24.4 million annual average is the second highest among Yankees behind A-Rod. I suspect the Yanks would be willing to do seven years at $171 million for Cano — slightly more than double Utley’s package and, at $24.42 million, slightly more per year than Sabathia.
Will that be enough? The Yankees should brace for Boras continuing to try to unsettle the organization by saying it is dishonoring George Steinbrenner’s legacy of bringing in or retaining the biggest stars. The Yankees should expect the Met card to be played because Fred Wilpon is vowing to spend next offseason. And let’s not forget Cano is an elite player and, thus, no one should be surprised — age, thick bottom and all — if a team or three offers $200 million or more.
The Dodgers are behemoths now. The Cubs look about ready to spend huge. Boras always seems to have the Tigers and Nationals on speed dial.
What do the Yankees do then, especially when there is no obvious star to plug in from the system or the trade market? It is hard to imagine Cano leaving $25 million or more on the table, no matter if he truly wants to stay a Yankee.
We do not have all the facts yet. How does Cano play with all this stress on him? Do the Yankees make the playoffs? And what happens to their $189 million discipline if they don’t?
The Yanks let outside stresses extinguish their initial strategy when it came to A-Rod. Will they again? Or is the empty locker two down from Cano a deterrent?