Cbs and Turner brought their college basketball analysts and play-by-play men into Manhattan this week to discuss the NCAA Tournament, and opinions were offered on everything from Florida Gulf Coast to the state of the Knicks.
One question appeared to be taboo: Do you have a Final Four prediction? This led to shoulder shrugs, an “I have no idea” and a “who knows?”
In a season when reaching No. 1 was almost always followed by a loss, it is near impossible to predict who will reach Atlanta. It is not like last year when Kentucky was considered the heavy favorite and followed through by getting John Calipari his first national title.
“Last year we had Kentucky who was so dominant and to me that is the exception rather than the rule,” said TNT analyst Steve Kerr, who will be calling the Final Four again this year with Jim Nantz and Clark Kellogg of CBS.
“Two years ago we had VCU and Butler in the Final Four. That’s what it feels like this year. There could be teams sliding in from anywhere.”
The one-and-done rule has led to stars predictably leaving the major college programs after their freshman years, allowing the mid-majors to battle talent with experience. For every highly touted freshman such as UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad there’s a Nate Wolters, the senior guard who led South Dakota State to its second straight Horizon League title and a spot in the tourney.
“I think you’ve seen the gap continue to close. It’s been one of those years where it’s closed even more than you anticipated,” Kellogg said. “I think you are seeing this year where we are seeing more of those non-power conference teams that look like they have an opportunity to make it to Atlanta. Whether that plays out or not, I am not sure. But the landscape certainly looks that way as we get ready for the run to Atlanta.”
While the last four is complete guesswork, who starts out on top is more easily predicted. Most felt Indiana and Duke were the two locked in No. 1 seeds with Gonzaga, Kansas and Georgetown all possibilities for the final two spots. But even that may not make you safe since some of the analysts think this could be the year a No. 1 seed could fall to a 16 for the first time.
“I think there’s a little bit of a gap with Duke and Indiana, but other than that Kansas is flawed, Gonzaga is terrific. But you wonder how they will handle the expectation and burden of being a No. 1 seed,” Kellogg said.