Your updated playoff seeds:
AL: Boston (1) vs. winner of Tampa Bay (WC1) and Texas (WC2), Oakland (2) vs. Detroit (3)
NL: Atlanta (1) vs. winner of Pittsburgh (WC1a) or St. Louis (WC1b) and Cincinnati (WC2), Pittsburgh (2a) or St. Louis (2b) vs. Dodgers (3)
Notes: The Rays (82-67) jumped ahead of the Rangers (81-68) by winning last night’s game between the two teams, 6-2, in St. Petersburg.
The Pirates (to San Diego) and Cardinals (at Colorado) both lost to remain tied atop the NL Central at 87-63. If the two clubs finish the regular season with the same record, the Pirates would host a 163rd game to determine the division winner because of a 10-9 edge in head-to-head action.
And now let’s do a different “If the season ended today” drill. If the season ended today, this would be the 2014 amateur draft order through the 11th pick:
1. Astros, 2. Marlins, 3. White Sox, 4. Cubs, 5. Twins, 6. Mariners, 7. Brewers, 8. Mets, 9. Rockies, 10. Blue Jays, 11. Blue Jays
The Blue Jays (currently 68-81) would pick 10th because they have the 10th worst record in baseball. They’ll absolutely pick 11th because they didn’t sign their first selection, No. 10 pick Phil Bickford, in the 2013 draft.
It’s going to be a tight race for the fourth spot onward. Just outside the top 10 (or bottom 10, if you prefer) are the Giants (69-81), Padres (69-80) and Phillies (70-80). The Angels (73-77) have an outside chance, though for some odd reason they seem to be more interested in finishing with a winning record.
We learned last offseason the value of finishing with one of those top 10 picks: They are protected over the winter, so if you sign a qualified free agent — a free agent who has turned down a qualifying offer from his most recent team — you have to give up a second-round draft pick (or lower, if you sign more than one). If you draft 11th or later, then you have to give up your first-round pick.
This is exactly the dilemma in which the Mets found themselves as they pursued Michael Bourn. Thanks to the Pirates having the eighth pick in the 2013 draft — because of their failure in 2012 to sign seventh overall selection Mark Appel — the Mets picked 11th despite posting the 10th-worst record. That set in motion a rather silly saga in which they negotiated with Bourn with the understanding, “We won’t sign you unless we keep our 11th pick via a grievance,” and it wound up being moot because the Indians offered Bourn a better deal and a better team, anyway.
You can argue the Mets are better off without Bourn, who has a very modest (OK, it’s bad) .656 OPS while playing solid defense in Year 1 of his contract with Cleveland. But that’s not the point this morning.
The point is it would behoove the Mets and their fans to wind up with a top-10 pick. The Mets would get another chance to replenish their farm system while still pursuing top-flight free agents this winter, as they have all but promised to do.
And for the fans … well, landing that top-10 pick would give the Mets one fewer excuse to be aggressive this winter.
I remember talking to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman during spring training of the 2009 season. CC Sabathia already had quite a workload on his resume (sound familiar?), and I asked Cashman about his concerns over such a risky investment.
“We were desperate,” Cashman said, with typical frankness.
You can arrive at desperation via several avenues. At that juncture, the Yankees were desperate to launch their new stadium with a bang, and their farm system hadn’t delivered as much as they hoped (sound familiar?). Hence the huge commitment to Sabathia, which had paid off handsomely prior to this year’s alarming plummet.
The Mets have taken a different path to desperation. It’s partly because of their five straight losing seasons. It’s also very much because of the trust deficit their ownership has with the team’s fan base.
Desperation can lead to overspending. If the Mets get accused of overspending this winter -– be it on Shin-Soo Choo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza or someone else — well, at least that’ll be an accusation they haven’t heard in a while.
First, though, comes the run for the top-10 pick. With beatable opponents such as the Giants (starting Tuesday night), Phillies and Brewers remaining on the schedule, it won’t be easy. Imagine if the Mets let down their fans yet again, by winning games?
Have a great day.