Here are your updated playoff seeds:
AL: Boston (1) vs. winner of Texas (WC1) and Tampa Bay (WC2), Oakland (2) vs. Detroit (3)
NL: Atlanta (1) vs. winner of Pittsburgh (WC1) and Cincinnati (WC2), St. Louis (2) vs. Dodgers (3)
Notes: The Rangers’ 7-1 victory over the Rays in Tampa Bay on Tuesday night pulled the two teams even at 82-68. Texas has the homefield advantage because of a 3-2 edge in head-to-head play, with two more games to go (Wednesday and Thursday nights) in their series at Tropicana Field.
In the National League Central, meanwhile, the Cardinals’ victory in Colorado and the Pirates’ home loss to San Diego gave St. Louis (88-63) a one-game edge over Pittsburgh (87-64) in that race.
The Yankees’ playoff chances are down to 3.7 percent, as per CoolStandings.com, after Tuesday night’s 2-0 loss to the Blue Jays. We’re approaching the end, clearly. Now it’s just a matter of how much longer the Yankees’ games can remain relevant. Their magic number for playoff elimination (to both Tampa Bay and Texas) is nine.
In diagnosing what has gone wrong for the Yankees this year, you can go big-picture, pointing to the huge commitments to Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira; the Michael Pineda trade; and the farm system not delivering enough, to name three. In recent years, though, the Yankees excelled at the small picture, finding those one-year fixes to spackle some of those larger issues. We’re talking about guys like Marcus Thames and Kerry Wood in 2010, Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia in 2011 and Eric Chavez and Raul Ibanez last year. Plus, their best one-year move of both 2012 and 2013 has been signing and then re-signing Hiroki Kuroda.
In addition to bringing back Kuroda last winter, the Yankees also re-signed Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera, and they both have worked out. It was after that when things turned south. If you want to break it down further, you could say the Yankees enjoyed a very good 2012-13 offseason from the end of the World Series until sundown of Nov. 30: Kuroda re-signed on Nov. 20, Pettitte on the 28th and Rivera early on the 30th. Then Russell Martin signed with Pittsburgh on the night of the 30th.
What were the Yankees’ biggest mistakes last winter?
1. Not re-signing Martin. They were concerned about his low batting average last year, and they also didn’t love how he worked with pitchers. Eh. In his favor were durability, the ability to slug and a personality that blended well with the rest of the Yankees’ clubhouse.
With the Pirates, who have put up their first winning record since 1992, Martin has gotten on base more often (currently a .330 OBP, compared to last year’s .311) while not surprisingly hitting fewer homers (from 21 to 14) — he loved Yankee Stadium’s right-field porch. His defense also has improved, according to the standard measures out there.
Meanwhile, even if Francisco Cervelli hadn’t gotten caught in the Biogenesis snare, he might have been limited to 17 games (the exact same total as Derek Jeter) due to his injuries. Chris Stewart, a solid backup, has been overexposed.
2. Re-signing Ichiro Suzuki. His on-base percentage is now down to .297, the worst of his career. He’s turning 40 next month. Remember the mythology about how rejoining the Yankees was supposed to revitalize his career? Oh, it revitalized his career, all right — for two fantastic weeks a year ago. The Yankees shockingly gave him a year’s commitment for each great week. It’s still mind-blowing they owe him another $6.5 million for next year.
3. Signing Kevin Youkilis. Here’s what I wrote about the Youkilis signing last December: “He could easily blend into a strong clubhouse and help get the Yankees back into the playoffs. Or a year from now, we easily could be saying, ‘Remember when the Yankees gave Kevin Youkilis $12 million? Yeesh.'”
I guess it wound up being the latter.
I wrote the signing was a “good risk,” because there was no one better out there at the time. Chavez already had signed with Arizona. Sure, the Yankees should’ve brought back Chavez instead — he was much cheaper ($3 million) and proved more durable (75 games to Youkilis’ 28) — but I don’t think that’s a season-changing swap.
4. Not doing more to insure against Jeter’s health problems. GM Brian Cashman noted last week, in Baltimore, that Jeter’s nightmarish season educated the team on just how bad ankle injuries can be. Remember, up until the middle of spring training, the Yankees were acting under the belief Jeter would be ready for Opening Day and back to his good old self.
The biggest negative about this situation is it seems likely to repeat this winter: How can the Yankees sell any good free agents (i.e. Stephen Drew) on a situation in which playing time will depend upon the health of The Great Derek Jeter? It’s why the failure of Eduardo Nunez to prove himself as a viable alternative really hurts.
Maybe Brendan Ryan, an impending free agent, would agree to return to this unique scenario. The reason he might agree, of course, is he’s a huge offensive liability.
— Later Wednesday afternoon, Joe Girardi will surely face questions about Alfonso Soriano’s comments Tuesday night about the Yankees’ lack of energy. Here’s my column that discusses the issue.
Look, Alfonso Soriano has played in 1,898 major-league games and hit 404 home runs. He has earned the right to say some things, and if he thought the Yankees lacked energy, more power to him. Then again, Alex Rodriguez has done some things in the game, too, and he thought it was more a matter of reigning NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey dominating.
I’m always wary of the results-driven narrative. Mark Reynolds came to bat in the first inning, with the bases loaded and two outs, and struck out. What if he had broken his bat and hit a flare that fell in front of the center fielder, scoring two runs? Would that have served as evidence of the Yankees’ energy?
Whether the Yankees lacked energy or didn’t, Soriano’s comments now make it an issue on the table. I’m curious to see how Girardi will deal with it.
— Great column by Post teammate Mike Vaccaro about Matt Harvey’s effort to avoid Tommy John surgery. It’s easy for everyone else to sit here and say what Harvey should or shouldn’t do. But it’s Harvey’s body and career.
What I wonder, for now, is whether this situation will lead to any long-lasting tension between Harvey and the Mets, who clearly want him to go ahead and have the procedure. The Mets released a terse statement Tuesday that included this key sentence:
“Based on this MRI and a subsequent clinical examination, Mets physicians determined that a surgical repair would likely be necessary, unless Matt could complete a throwing program free of elbow related symptoms.”
In other words, the Mets feel the burden of proof falls upon Harvey. He must prove in the next 6-to-8 weeks, by throwing without pain, he does not need the surgery. That’s not a great dynamic.
Sandy Alderson said Tuesday of the Harvey update, “We don’t believe, even with two months invested in this program, that it will affect 2015 if surgery is ultimately necessary.” That’s fundamentally optimistic. Sure, a pitcher can return from TJ surgery in 12 months, but then you’re not allowing for any setbacks. Obviously, if Harvey needs the surgery, then the sooner he undergoes the procedure, the better.
— A couple of plug-worthy events are coming up: First, CC Sabathia and his wife Amber are currently raffling off an experience for this Sunday, Sept. 22 that will include joining the Sabathias at an exclusive event after the game (against San Francisco) at NYY Steak. Information is at netRaffle.org, and proceeds will benefit the Sabathias’ PitCCh In Foundation.
On Thursday, Oct. 3, there will be a premiere screening of “Branca’s Pitch,” a documentary about pitcher Ralph Branca, at the Avon Theatre in Stamford, Conn. Branca will participate in a question-and-answer session after the screening. The film is executive-produced by Bobby Valentine, whose first such endeavor, “Ballplayer: Pelotero,” was excellent and created waves all the way up to Bud Selig.
Have a great day.