The line in this game dropped a full point from Wednesday to Thursday, down to 3¹/₂, because of the long Patriots’ injury list loaded with important players. So the bettors obviously are buying in, but it’s always a dangerous strategy betting against Bill Belichick because of injuries.
The Patriots’ dynasty started because of an injury to Drew Bledsoe (inflicted by a Jet, Mo Lewis). That begat Tom Brady, but Belichick did OK without him, too, going 11-5 the season Brady got hurt in Week 1. Remember wide receiver Troy Brown playing defensive back?
This time, though, it would seem to be too much to be missing all-world nose tackle Vince Wilfork, top linebacker Jerod Mayo and great cover corner Aqib Talib. The Jets lost by three at Foxborough earlier this season on a Thursday night, and had a chance to pull it out before Geno Smith started throwing picks in the fourth quarter. With Green-Out conditions at MetLife, put your green on the Jets this time.
The pick: Jets +3¹/₂.
JAGUARS (+7¹/₂) over Chargers: Cross-country trip after a rousing upset Monday night win for San Diego. This one’s on Page 1 of the betting manual. Jags have scored 20 and 19 in the two games since Justin Blackmon returned. He is dealing with a hamstring injury though.
LIONS (-2¹/₂) over Bengals: Lions scored 34 and 40 in their two home games, beating the Vikings and Bears, respectively. Bengals have topped 27 points only once.
Bills (+8) over DOLPHINS: Thad Lewis got the Bills to overtime (and covered) last week versus the Bengals at home, and now is back home where he played his high-school ball. Bills actually match up well statistically despite the records (2-4 versus 3-2). Close one here.
Bears (pick) over REDSKINS: Giving the nod to the visiting Bears for one main reason. They have 10 days off their Thursday night win over the Giants. Teams in that situation are 8-2 against the spread. Skins have a bit of a short week after a Sunday night loss at Dallas.
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys: Cowboys travel off Sunday nighter, when they lost DeMarcus Ware and possibly DeMarco Murray. Plus, their defensive-line is decimated, and the fill-ins will get creased badly by this Eagles offense.
Rams (+6) over PANTHERS: Blowout wins over the Giants and Vikings skew all of the Panthers’ stats upward. Both teams won big on the road last week, but trust Jeff Fisher over Ron Rivera to get a repeat performance.
Buccaneers (+7) over FALCONS: Falcons may not have anything as scary as MRSA, but injury absences of Roddy White and Julio Jones are pretty bad. Winless Bucs are worth play here at a full touchdown — if they haven’t completely quit on Greg Schiano.
49ers (-4¹/₂) over TITANS: Nice cover by Titans in Seattle last week, but this price is reasonable and the 49ers — still in second place — are rolling with wins of 24, 31 and 12 the last three games.
CHIEFS (-6) over Texans: Why is this spread so low with a 6-0 hosting a 2-4 with a first-time starting quarterback (Case Keenum)? Even if there’s some Vegas funny business going on, still siding with the loud Arrowhead crowd and the turnover monster (Chiefs plus-12, Texans minus-12).
PACKERS (-10) over Browns: Another spread that seems too low. Browns are coming off a 14-point home loss to the Lions, and this is Brandon Weeden versus Aaron Rodgers!
STEELERS (-1¹/₂) over Ravens: Looked at this game long and hard and am unable to identify a single good reason to pick either team (first time ever said that in 20 seasons in this space). So going with the home team that had a bye two weeks back versus a visitor that has played right through. Hey, it’s something.
Broncos (-6 ¹/₂) over COLTS: NFL did the Colts no favors scheduling a West Coast Monday nighter ahead of the Peyton Manning homecoming. Andrew Luck can keep it kind of close if his receivers don’t drop everything as they did in San Diego. But Jim Irsay should not have riled up Peyton the way he did. Bad move.
MONDAY NIGHT
GIANTS (-3¹/₂) over Vikings: Eli Manning should have a solidified line with center David Baas, likely back, and a ground game that awoke in Chicago. He’ll hit some home run passes versus the Vikings secondary. Plus, Giants have even an extra day off the Thursday nighter, which has been an 80 percent trend this season.
BEST BETS: Eagles, Jaguars, Giants
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Eagles
(Locks 3-3)
LAST WEEK: 6-9 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
THURSDAY NIGHT: Seahawks