Let’s assume the Yankees have removed their financial shackles. That $189 million thresholds are now like the idea of building around Kevin Maas – a concept that came and went as it looked worse and worse to the organization’s leadership.
There was a time in the not distant past that this would mean start sizing Masahiro Tanaka for pinstripes. Because what the Yankees wanted, no one else could stop them from purchasing. But even the financially committed Yanks are going to find significant obstacles now.
Tanaka’s agent, Casey Close, does not have Scott Boras’ public reputation for bargaining hard and toward the top of the market, but he does have it within the sport. Also, the Yanks are no longer the only team willing to stretch and stretch financially to get what they want.
Since only the team that ultimately signs Tanaka will have to pay his Japanese club, Rakuten, the $20 million posting fee, the expectation is many, if not most, MLB teams will inquire. Heck, you can make the case that teams such as the Orioles and Royals, who need a high-end starter and are at vital crossroads in their respective histories, should go all in or that the Astros – loaded with dough and beginning to take steps toward accelerating the timeline for contention – should jump in seriously. The Giants or maybe another club could also surprise, but right now these eight organizations are viewed as the main competition to the Yankees:
1. Dodgers
If their wallet really is bottomless, then the Dodgers are as likely to sign Tanaka as any club. But there are executives in the game who think L.A. is looking at the bottom line a little more.
The Dodgers already have four players making $21 million or more for at least the next four seasons – Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Zack Greinke and Matt Kemp – and Andre Ethier averages just a tad under $19 million from 2015-17. Right now, according to the figures at Cot’s Contracts, L.A. has a major league-high $136.4 million already committed for 2015. And that does not include Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez, who are both free agents after this season.
Kershaw almost certainly will become the first $200 million pitcher and may even jump all the way to $300 million. Ramirez probably makes no less than $18 million a year and possibly more. The Dodgers want to keep both. So if they are unable to unload an outfielder such as Kemp or Ethier, the Dodgers very well could have six players making $18 million or more.
Tanaka is going to be in that realm, as well. In their bold signings of Yasiel Puig, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Alexander Guerrero, the Dodgers showed how aggressive they will be on the international market. In addition, Close already has done a large pitching deal (Greinke) with this front office and represents Kershaw as well.
Here is some intrigue: The Dodgers tried to engage Kershaw in long-term talks before last season that apparently would have made him the highest-paid pitcher ever without having to risk pitching the two remaining seasons until free agency. Kershaw, instead, gambled on himself. If the Dodgers think Kershaw might ultimately test the market and flee, would they hedge by signing Tanaka and know they have him, Greinke and Ryu going forward to build around?
2. Angels
Another SoCal team about which we ask: How far will it go financially? The past two offseasons the Angels made huge splashes with Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Neither has worked out well. That apparently has made owner Artie Moreno gun shy.
However, the Angels now have not made the playoffs four straight years, their attendance has ticked downward and they are losing the Battle of L.A. to the Dodgers. And their need for high-end starting pitching has not changed even after obtaining Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago, who are more back-end support.
3. Red Sox
They have remained disciplined this offseason. The cornerstone of their championship was trading out of the big contracts of Crawford and Gonzalez and spreading their money around on a lot of good players but none with big long-term expense. They have brought Mike Napoli back on a two-year deal and seem willing to do the same for Stephen Drew while letting Jacoby Ellsbury and Jarrod Saltalamacchia flee.
Boston has just $62.6 million committed to the 2015 team, but Jon Lester is a free agent after 2014. Are the Red Sox prepared to pay him, Tanaka or both with the kind of long-term deals they have been trying to steer away from?
4. Phillies
There are many Yankee-esque qualities here – notably the presence of an older/declining core and worry about holding the attention of a Northeast fan base that has come to expect stars and winning. There are many failings around the diamond, but a rotation headed by Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Tanaka would make up for a lot of sins while possibly re-energizing that fan base.
5. Rangers
Word is they love Tanaka. They certainly have had success reaching into this marketplace previously with Yu Darvish. But the Rangers already have made two seven-year investments this offseason – trading for Prince Fielder and signing Shin-Soo Choo. After each, I heard executives around the sport say Texas GM Jon Daniels hates these kind of long-term deals and wouldn’t do another.
But, of course, after Fielder, there was Choo. And Texas is motivated for many reasons. The Rangers’ last four seasons produced a World Series loss (2010), a World Series loss in the most agonizing of ways (2011), a final-weeks collapse to fall to the wild card (2012), a playoff miss (2013). The Rangers need to hold a football-crazed area’s attention. They are motivated to prove they can win after the departure of Nolan Ryan and what was a battle for front office control. They have uber-rich owners and a lucrative TV deal, so the money is there if they want to win a bidding war.
6. Cubs
Few teams are as blessed with positional prospects like the Cubs. But they are in need of pitching. Their front office has held off on big-ticket items, feeling the window to begin serious contention probably begins in 2016, and the Cubs have not wanted to spend dollars and watch players age while waiting for that time. But because Tanaka is 25, this could be different. The industry certainly expects them to be significant bidders.
7. Diamondbacks
Industry believe is they are enamored with Tanaka. They have used a chunk of their prospect base to get Mark Trumbo and Addison Reed. Thus, they might be more leery of using more to get, say, David Price. They have made it clear, in fact, that they will not trade their best prospect, Archie Bradley. So will they make the financial commitment to buy Tanaka and team him with Bradley and Patrick Corbin to front their rotation moving forward?
8. Mariners
There are mixed messages about how far Seattle is willing to go after giving Robinson Cano $240 million. Still, even with Cano, this is probably not a playoff team, in part because it needs another high-end starter and has shown an unwillingness to cede Taijuan Walker to land Price. The Mariners have a huge Japanese following and enjoyed great success with Ichiro Suzuki.