WASHINGTON – As many as 2 million people could die in the worst-case scenario for a bird-flu pandemic in the United States, and the impact could be worse than a terrorist attack, says a frightening new government report.
As many as 50 million Americans could become infected, and two-fifths of the work force could be out of commission, causing economic chaos.
“Our nation will face this global threat united in purpose and united in action in order to best protect our families, our communities, our nation and our world from the threat of pandemic influenza,” President Bush said in a letter to Americans noting the release of an updated national pandemic response strategy.
A breakdown in the “basic functioning of society” could occur, the feds concluded, according to the federal report.
If a deadly bird-flu strain mutates so it can jump to humans and comes here through people or migrating birds – as top health officials say is possible – local governments, schools and people must take immediate steps to avoid a health catastrophe on the scale of a major war or famine.
Even then, experts concede, the disease could spread rapidly throughout society, causing at least a temporary breakdown in normal American life – shutting down schools, stores and subways.
People would have to avoid coming within three feet of strangers, schools and universities would close, and businesses would force sick employees to work from home.
In a severe pandemic, up to 40 percent of the work force could be off the job for two weeks, the report estimates.
Because 85 percent of the systems that are vital to society – food production, medicine and financial services – are privately run, the administration aimed to use the new report to energize businesses in particular to start planning how they will keep running under those conditions.
People should stock up on food and water in case stores and water supplies are disrupted, the feds advised.
Under a severe pandemic, public service and health care could be interrupted, leading to “high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss.”
The feds might try to close ports and stop nonessential travel when an outbreak first occurs, according to White House security adviser Frances Townsend, who said the tactics “may be effective . . . in buying us time.”
Townsend warned people not to panic, saying the government would tailor its response to events. “There is no way to predict how severe a pandemic will be,” she said.
She said poultry producers were monitoring their flocks.
Townsend said much of the burden will go to local governments, businesses and church groups under the federal system, although she said the feds would take over 300 specific actions in the event of an outbreak.
“This is an international problem that calls for a federal response – pawning it off on the state and local government is not a solution,” said Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.).
The administration has spent all of the $3.8 billion Congress allocated for bird flu in December. Townsend acknowledged the country doesn’t have enough vaccine stockpiled for every American in the event of a pandemic outbreak.
Sickening
A federal report issued yesterday says bird flu in the US could result in millions of deaths.The Bush administration ‘s response plan also makes recommendations on what the public should do in the event of a pandemic.
What could happen
- Everyone would be susceptible to the new virus.
- 30%would become ill during the pandemic,with 40%of schoolchildren and 20%of working adults being infected.
- 40%of workers would stay at home during the peak two weeks of a pandemic wave.
- Some people would be infected but not ill – and still spread the virus.
- Between 200,000 and 2 million Americans would die,depending on how fatal the virus strain is.
What employers, schools and families can do
- Stock up on supply of water and food.
- Wash hands often with soap and water.
- Get seasonal flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
- Set up policies for personal-illness leave and for flexible working hours.
- Modify activities that may help the virus spread.
NYC readiness
- Educating doctors about symptoms
- Working with hospitals to prepare for possible flu pandemic
- Providing information to public on how to avoid infection
- Warning against hoarding of Tamiflu and other anti-virals
- Establish warning systems for early detection