The relationship between Venezuela under Nicolas “I Am Chavez” Maduro and Cuba is bound to tighten — and that’s bad news for America.
Sworn-in Friday as Venezuela’s interim president, Maduro is often described as “hand-picked” by Hugo Chavez, the strongman who ruled Caracas for 14 years until his death last week, to succeed him.
In fact, Maduro owes his rise as much to Raul and Fidel Castro.
And the Castros need to maintain the co-dependency between Cuba and Venezuela, which means trouble for pretty much everyone outside the small circle of ruling elites in Caracas and Havana.
Yes, many Venezuelans are still weeping for the mausoleum-bound Chavez. He cared so much about the poor that he made sure the country had lots of them, and growing ever poorer. Now his government-dependent fans pray for the survival of the system that (barely) sustains them.
Yet lots of Venezuelans rejoice over Chavez’s demise and hope for the end of the Chavista system. But the most promising opposition leader, Enrique Capriles, is unlikely to win the “election” that, as announced yesterday, is set for April 14. Even after Chavez, the Chavistas hold all the electoral keys, and they will assure Maduro’s victory.
Top Latin leaders showed for Friday’s funeral to pay their respects to Chavez, though only few of their nations (Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua) had joined the Chavez-named “Bolivarian revolution.” The larger countries (Brazil, Mexico, Colombia) have gone to the opposite way, toward free-market economies, for the benefit of their peoples.
Also present coffin-side were the world’s rogues who share the Chavistas’ America-hatred: Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and top officials from various terror gangs: Hezbollah, Hamas and Colombia’s FARC. All are tight with Caracas and enjoy its petrodollar largesse.
Washington, by contrast, sent James Derham, a caretaker of the US embassy in Caracas, to the funeral, while some DC has-beens, like embattled Rep. Greg Meeks of Queens (who said he was “honored” to be representing the United States at the funeral) tagged along. That low-level representation reflects a decade and a half of bad blood between Chavez and “el diablos.”
Nevertheless, President Obama has already expressed hope for turning a “new page” in relations, and some at the State Department undoubtedly hope to soon send a full-fledged ambassador to Caracas.
(Will it be ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-Mass.), who promoted Chavez on TV for years? Or Jesse Jackson, who compared Chavez to George Washington at the funeral?)
Sorry: No new page will turn anytime soon — and you can thank the Castros.
Chavez long ago made a deal with his mentor, Fidel Castro: Caracas sends Cuba 100,000 barrels of oil a day; Havana in return dispatches its best doctors, teachers and “security” men to Venezuela.
It’s a win-win for Havana: Venezuela became the island’s sugar daddy, replacing the defunct Soviet Union. Meanwhile, Cuban teachers indoctrinate Venezuela’s young, while its spies and thugs keep tabs on the country’s restless.
As Chavez’s cancer worsened and his trips to Cuban hospitals grew more frequent, the entire Venezuelan leadership would go to Havana — ostensibly to visit the ailing leader, but in reality to strategize for the future.
And that’s when Maduro was anointed successor, edging out the likes of Diosdado Cabello, the speaker of the legislature, by convincing Havana that he’d best serve their interests in Caracas.
Without Venezuela’s oil, the Cuban economy would tank. But Havana, with security agents present in every part of Venezuela’s life, has enough sway over the country to assure that its man remains in power. And Maduro, lacking Chavez’s charisma, needs the Cuban thugs to fend off internal competitors.
So the ruling circles in Havana and Caracas will grow even more co-dependent.
“Both regimes will continue to undermine US interests at every turn, since Maduro will continue to be a puppet for the Castro brothers just as Chavez was,” the Havana-born Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.) told me in an e-mail.
The Obama administration must “counter the threats posed by Cuba and Venezuela,” added the former chairwoman of the House Foreign Relations Committee. So far, Washington’s “diplomatic entreaties [to the two regimes] have accomplished zilch in improving our regional security.”
Rather than looking for openings with a regime that’s bound to lock doors, the United States needs to tighten relations with Mexican, Colombian and other Latin leaders — aiming to marginalize Venezuela’s new boss, who’s the same as the old boss.
Twitter: @bennyavni