The return of Jose Reyes would make the most difference to the Mets, but even if he, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado all were back from injury tonight, the team’s chances to make the playoffs remain slim.
AccuScore.com projects the Mets’ remaining record, if Reyes were in the lineup starting tonight, would be 38-37, giving them a 5.5 percent chance of making the NL playoffs.
Adding Carlos Beltran or Carlos Delgado would project to a 37-38 finish (5.2 percent playoff chance).
If they all came back tonight, the remaining record projects at 40-35, an 82-80 finish and marginally better 9.5 percent playoff chance.
If none come back for the rest of the season, turn it around to 35-40 and a 77-85 season record.
“Much as you hate to point to the injuries, they are very significant,” Mets manager Jerry Manuel said before Thursday night’s game at Atlanta.
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Though Reyes has the biggest individual impact, it does not necessarily mean that he is the best player. It is more of a reflection of the depth the Mets have at each respective positions (SS, CF, 1B).
Of Reyes, GM Omar Minaya said, “He’s much closer today than he was a week ago.”
The injuries have taken an obvious toll on a team with high expectations.
AccuScore did not pick the Mets to win the NL East, but it did project them to have 85 wins in its preseason forecast and be in position for the wild card.
Heading into play tonight at 42-45, they are on a 78-84 pace.
“We didn’t catch breaks in the first half,” Minaya said.
However, if injuries to Delgado, Reyes and Beltran ultimately cost the team five more wins, the Mets will finish under .500.
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.
With AP