Gen. David Petraeus has an unprece dented opportunity to seize back the momentum in Afghanistan: Neither President Obama nor Congress wants a confrontation with this general. During his honeymoon, he can write his own rules.
And he needs to. Fast.
To turn the current situation around, Petraeus has to address hundreds of what-now-boss? issues — but a 10-item to-do list should top his priorities.
First, the big-picture stuff:
Define victory down: Above all, we need realistic expectations as to what can be achieved in Afghanistan. We can’t remake the place into a cartoon of Western values. We can continue to gut al Qaeda across the border in Pakistan and gore those Taliban who cooperate with bin Laden’s butchers.
If Petraeus could only do a single thing, he should nail down achievable goals.
Push the Pakistanis to stop harboring terrorists: Because we’ve gotten ourselves in a logistics mess, we imagine we need the Pakistanis more than they need us. The reverse is true: China ain’t going to be no sweet sugar-daddy. And if India declares war again, the Pakistanis won’t have time to say goodbye in Urdu.
Petraeus sees the Pakistanis with refreshing clarity. The problem is that senior administration officials have drunk Pakistani Kool-Aid by the vat.
Team with Ambassador Karl Eikenberry in Kabul: Calls to bring in Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Petraeus’s tag-team partner in Iraq, are misguided. Eikenberry knows the current situation better than any other senior player on our side. And he has Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s number.
Streamline the rest of the team: Richard Holbrooke, Obama’s special envoy to the region, needs to go. Petraeus must be the go-to guy in AfPak.
Given the right mission, Holbrooke’s a brilliant operator. But he’s not a team player and doesn’t understand the region. At present, the Afghans and Pakistanis simply play off our fly-by dignitaries against each other.
Quietly build relations with alternatives to Karzai: We need to start removing some of our eggs from the Karzai basket. We must have a post-Karzai Plan B. And Plans C and D.
Now, at the dirty-boots level:
Rethink operational priorities: While Petraeus could get an extension on the 2011 deadline for removing surge troops, he needs to re-evaluate the use of those troops now.
The general doesn’t have to admit that his counterinsurgency doctrine has failed — as long as he moves beyond it (as he did in Iraq). Planting alternative crops doesn’t work; planting the bodies of dead terrorists does.
Loosen the rules of engagement: Rational policies to protect civilians are fine, but sacrificing our troops while handing our enemies the initiative is nuts. Better dead Afghans than dead Americans.
More-sensible ROE would be a huge morale booster for our troops — and we already have indications that Petraeus will produce them.
Take the fight to the enemy: Our current passive posture is a prescription for losing slowly. The only “terrain” that matters is the enemy. We need to stop hugging dirt and go back to holding onto the enemy.
We should maximize our mobility, not sit in place and wait for the mortar rounds. Our conventional operations should look like special ops writ large — devastating raids that allow our enemies no rest or refuge. We can’t win playing defense.
More special operations, please: At present, strikes by our special-ops forces are all that’s really working inside Afghanistan. Caught up in one recent raid, a high-value target simply walked out and surrendered. He told our special operators he was weary of running from them. That’s how we need all our enemies to feel.
Insist on a long-term detention policy for dangerous captives: In the words of one frustrated officer, we’re “policing them up in vast numbers, and our own DoD is releasing them as fast. We’re risking the best lives we have to risk, and we’re having to re-snag or kill many of our historical guests. Sickening.”
We’ve refused to stand up a wartime regime for holding terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan. We release them onto “a nonexistent judicial system.” The Afghans actually want us to hold them. But we won’t.
Fix that one, Dave.
Petraeus is in a unique position of power for a general. Now he has to deliver.