What a perfect storm of circumstances suggesting a sizable Seahawks victory over the Giants on Sunday in the Meadowlands.
The Seahawks still have work to do to clinch the NFC West and top seed in the NFC. They will be stoked, particularly coming off a tough loss at San Francisco. The Giants are eliminated, and there’s little to suggest they will be any more interested in playing spoiler than they were last week in San Diego when they were trying to save their season.
Also, the turnover comparison is a nightmare for the Giants. Seattle is plus-12 and the Giants minus-13, and by Week 15 teams are what they are in this department.
The Giants can’t even count on winter weather being their friend here. The forecast is partly sunny, 34 degrees and winds in the teens. If it gets worse than that, it will benefit Russell Wilson’s read-option attack and Seattle’s No. 1 defense and further hamper Eli Manning’s downfield passing game, which is the Giants’ best shot. But all in all, the Giants are just shot.
The pick: Seahawks -7.
PANTHERS (-11) over Jets: Some of the same elements in play here. Panthers are coming off a tough divisional road loss at New Orleans and still need to keep winning (they can win NFC South or miss playoffs altogether). Jets are still alive, but are 1-5 on the road with losses by 3, 25, 40, 23 and 16. And, again, look at the turnovers. Panthers are plus-10 and Jets minus-18. Another rough day for Geno Smith against the NFL’s No. 2 defense.
FALCONS (-7) over Redskins: Won the last two Locks of the Week going against the Redskins. Don’t have quite the conviction here, and the switch from RG3 to Kirk Cousins might have a positive effect on the offense. Even so, the Falcons have been better in recent weeks and could be ready to post the kind of double-digit home win that was common in Matt Ryan’s first five seasons.
BUCCANEERS (+5¹/₂) over 49ers: Bucs have won four of their last five, three of those at home, and are plus-13 in turnovers. They may not be able to score much against the Niners’ defense (third in NFC), but there’s reason to expect a close game and plenty of forgiveness in the spread.
Bears (pick) over BROWNS: Respect a Browns team that led 19-3 in New England, but that type of loss can have a carryover for an eliminated team. Also would’ve preferred Josh McCown to a returning Jay Cutler, but Bears offense proved it could operate in cold weather in a big way against Dallas.
COLTS (-5¹/₂) over Texans: The only scary thing about the Texans is the shockingly low line. Maybe it’s because the Colts have clinched the AFC South and have little chance of going much higher up the ladder. Still, if they don’t win this by 20 points, something’s wrong.
JAGUARS (+2) over Bills: Buffalo has lost five of six and seven of nine. Hard to support them as road favorites against a feel-good Jaguars team that has won four of five, even with Maurice Jones-Drew’s iffy status (hamstring).
DOLPHINS (+1¹/₂) over Patriots: Not because of Rob Gronkowski’s absence. The Patriots can and have won plenty without him. Looking back at the way the Dolphins dominated the first meeting, leading 17-3 at the half before Tom Brady pulled one of the many rabbits out of his hat. Good Xs and Os matchup for Miami, home for this one.
Eagles (-4¹/₂) over VIKINGS: Eagles have won five in a row and it’ll be interesting to see how this offense can do on the fast track indoors. Vikings are without Adrian Peterson.
Chiefs (-4¹/₂) over RAIDERS: Chiefs love the Black Hole, having won eight of last 10 visits. They also are 5-1 on the road this season and look to clinch the 5-seed wild card.
Cardinals (-2¹/₂) over TITANS: Cards are a little better statistically on offense and defense, and at 8-5 have a lot more incentive than the 5-8 Titans.
Saints (-6) over RAMS: Saints are averaging just 18.8 points per game in going 3-3 on the road, a full two touchdowns fewer than their home scoring haul. But this one’s in a dome, they’re fighting for a division title, and the Rams may be without WR Tavon Austin (ankle).
Packers (+7) over COWBOYS: No Aaron Rodgers, but Matt Flynn did have a solid game last week, and is worth a shot against a Cowboys defense that didn’t stop the Bears a single time in single-digit weather (not counting the final kneel).
Bengals (-2¹/₂) over STEELERS: Steelers will play with pride, as they always do, and the Bengals will have to shed some blood to get this one. But Cincy is the better team and is gunning for an AFC North title.
MONDAY NIGHT
LIONS (-6) over Ravens: Lions make so many mistakes it’s mind-boggling. But there is so much talent here they can still put up a ton of points at home, and the Ravens are 1-5 on the road.
BEST BETS: Colts, Seahawks, Falcons
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Colts (Locks 5-8-1)
LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
THURSDAY NIGHT: Chargers