Normally it’s easy to avoid taboo activities. Don’t talk about politics or religion at a bar. Refrain from asking about income. Never ask a lady her age. Steer clear of seedy “massage” parlors. And don’t over-coach your fantasy team.
For example, maybe you think this is the week Andy Dalton goes haywire, and you feel Aaron Rodgers is due for a letdown. Don’t give in. More often than not, the great fantasy player will outscore the marginal fantasy player, regardless of matchup. You will get burned by doing this more often than you will succeed.
So you might find it hypocritical when we tell you to start Nick Foles this week over Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton … virtually everyone except Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Tony Romo.
Before you scoff, consider the options. Drew Brees is on a bye. Jay Cutler’s Bears easily could jump out to an early lead on the Redskins, then can milk the clock with ease on the ground against a defense that is as bad stopping the run as it is defending the pass. Ditto Philip Rivers against. the Jaguars.
Stafford is facing a Bengals team that has put the clamps on Rodgers and Tom Brady this season, and Lions WR Calvin Johnson is dealing with knee problems.
Foles will make his second start in a row for the injured Michael Vick (hamstring). The Eagles’ explosive offense is tied for the league lead in plays of 40 yards or more (eight), is in the top six in total passing yards and has 11 TD passes to just two picks.
Sure, most of those numbers were accumulated with Vick, but in the glimpses we’ve seen of Foles, there is no reason to believe he can’t keep up the pace.
He faces a Cowboys defense that has given up four TD passes in two separate games and three in another. Dallas has yielded more than 400 passing yards three times in four games — along with 14 TD passes to just six INTs (three of which came in Week 1).
We don’t believe Foles is much of a risk, and will treat him as a second-tier QB, along the same lines as Vick, until Vick returns. But if it makers you feel better: Don’t think of it as much as taking a risk on Foles as having confidence the Cowboys defense will yield another big game.
Big Weeks
Mike Glennon, QB, Buccaneers, at Falcons
After rough first outing vs. Cardinals in Week 4, he looked much improved last week vs. Eagles following a bye. Atlanta has given up multiple TD passes in every game.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers, vs. Rams
St. Louis has been torched on the ground by every team it has faced with a respectable ground game. Panthers could forge early lead against Rams team that is on the road for second straight week, coming off big upset win in Houston.
Harry Douglas, WR, Falcons, vs. Buccaneers
Julio Jones (foot) is out for the year. Roddy White (hamstring/ankle) is out for at least this game. TE Tony Gonzalez can’t catch every pass.
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings, at Giants
Big Blue have allowed at least one TE score in four of six games. Rudolph, coming off his best game of the season, figures to get checkdown looks from new Minnesota QB Josh Freeman.
Small Weaks
Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers, at Titans
Tennesse hasn’t given up a TD pass in the past two weeks, and more than one just once this season. Kaepernick has been fantasy poison since Week 1.
Arian Foster, RB, Texans, at Chiefs
Over-coaching to sit Foster? Perhaps, but at least temper your expectations. K.C. has allowed just one rushing TD all year, and Houston is a mess. If you have RB depth, consider other options.
Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins, vs. Bills
Buffalo has yielded just one TD to a TE all season (Week 2 vs. Panthers). In the past four weeks, the Bills have given up an average of 2.5 fantasy points a week to TEs.
Cincinnati, DEF/ST, Bengals, at Lions
Outside of the Colts, facing the high-scoring Broncos, the other highly productive fantasy defense you should replace is the Bengals unit. The Cincy defense has not scored well on the road, and the Lions can put up points in bunches.
The Decision
Drew Loftis and Steve Serby debate whom you should start this week:
Joseph Randle vs. Knowshon Moreno
Loftis: Randle — Takes over as Cowboys primary runner this week — with DeMarco Murray (knee) doubtful and Lance Dunbar (hamstring) out. Washington allows an average of 123.4 yards on the ground per game, sixth-most in the NFL, and has given up six rushing TDs — only three teams have allowed more. Besides, Peyton Manning likely to dominate in his Indy return, at the expense of Moreno.
Serby: Moreno — Moreno leads the NFL with seven rushing TDs, and his two best games, against the Giants (13-93-2TDs, 3-14 receiving) and Cowboys (19-93-1 TD, 5-57 receiving), have come on the road. Then there’s the matter of the Colts defense yielding 792 yards, 31st in the 32-team league. And finally, Peyton Manning won’t feel the need to stuck it to Jim Irsay with a touchdown pass monsoon indicative of a compiler, a victory over Andrew Luck will do just fine, and Moreno will have plentiful opportunities to be a goal-line vulture.
Last week: Serby 8 (Heath Miller — 84 receiving yards), Loftis 2 (Garrett Graham — 25 receiving yards)
Season: Series tied, 3-3