Let’s kick things off with this week’s Pop Quiz entry, which came to us from Gary Mintz of South Huntington:
In a 1952 episode of “I Love Lucy,” Fred gives Lucy a baseball signed by a future Hall of Famer. Name this player.
For my annual Top 30 free-agent rankings and predictions, I tweaked my methodology from the past few years in terms of the rankings. For the last few years, I had been going solely on WAR — specifically WAR from the last two seasons — but this year, I came to the conclusion that was both silly and reader-unfriendly.
Ervin Santana, to name one example, is going to make a lot of money this winter though he had a negative WAR in 2012. And you folks want to know where Santana is going, more than you do, say, David Murphy (who could be a good fit for the Astros, by the way).
So I used WAR as a foundation — I don’t think there’s any disputing that old pitchers such as Hiroki Kuroda and Bartolo Colon have been more valuable recently than younger guys such as Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez or Matt Garza — but also factored in my conversations with team officials and agents.
Think of this as the companion piece to the main chart, sort of like (snob alert) what “Hotel Chevalier” is to “The Darjeeling Limited.” First, let’s go over some of the decisions I made on guys with New York connections, be they past, current or predicted future:
1. Robinson Cano: My colleague Joel Sherman has been throwing out an eight-year, $200-million figure for a while now — he did again this week — so I just swiped that. While Cano is an elite free agent — I think he has more future value as a player now than Albert Pujols did two years ago when he entered free agency — his relative anonymity, because he has played for the star-studded Yankees, will hurt his market with owners, who think more globally.
3. Shin-Soo Choo: I compile these predictions through a mixture of hard-core reporting and speculation. Part of that speculation is trying to think along with agents and teams. In this instance, we all know Choo’s agent, Scott Boras, is the most deliberate player representative out there; he has no worries about taking a player into January, February or March without a job. The Yankees, meanwhile, will be in limbo for a while, thanks to the uncertainty surrounding Alex Rodriguez.
So here’s how I foresee it: A-Rod’s suspension gets knocked down to 150 games in mid-to-late December, giving the Yankees some much-appreciated payroll flexibility. And Choo is still sitting on the sidelines, and Yankees ownership wants to send another message to its fans that it intends to contend once again in 2014. Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson already have signed elsewhere. Boom! Here comes Choo, who, in the word of a talent evaluator from a National League team, “fits the Yankees perfectly, and his bat would really play in that Stadium.”
5. Kuroda: On one level, he and his agent Steve Hilliard play it very close to the vest. On another level, though, people know Hilliard isn’t going to meet with all 30 teams about Kuroda. The most likely destinations are back to the Yankees, back to the Dodgers or back to Japan. I put my chips on him returning to the Yankees, but not all that confidently. It wouldn’t surprise me — or the Yankees, more importantly — if he went back to Japan.
6. Jhonny Peralta: I hear the Mets like him a lot. He’s a good bat, which they of course desperately need; he plays shortstop adequately; he’s durable; he has a good clubhouse reputation, despite his Biogenesis involvement; and he won’t cost a draft pick as compensation because the Tigers didn’t make him a qualifying offer on Monday.
7. Colon: Hey, he pitched for the Yankees for a year, didn’t he? What to make of a guy who will turn 41 next May and whose three-year revival has included a suspension for a positive illegal PED test? Let’s say I don’t see him being the darling of the market. He’s a value buy even at his advanced age, and while his family spends time in the New York area, I think the A’s remain the best fit for him. There’s mutual comfort there, and the A’s still could use him.
9. Carlos Beltran: The Cardinals gave him a qualifying offer and then publicly encouraged him to reject it, which is a sound strategy. I don’t think there’s unanimity within the Yankees front office to go after Beltran; going back to my Choo prediction, I think the Yankees’ outfield situation could take a while to shake out.
Beltran wants to go to a contender, and the Phillies sure don’t look like one. Yet Beltran likes hitting and playing in Philadelphia. When the Mets prepared to trade him in 2011, Beltran’s top two choices were the Phillies and Giants. Beltran’s agent, Dan Lozano, has conducted business with the Phillies, working to re-sign Jimmy Rollins two years ago. And the Phillies have a gaping hole in their outfield. I also think Beltran’s market will be suppressed somewhat by the qualifying offer, and the Phillies have their top pick protected by finishing in the bottom 10 in 2013. So there you go.
11. Masahiro Tanaka: This just makes too much sense for the Yankees not to do. It’s a chance for them to flex their financial muscles without getting crushed by the luxury tax, as the posting fee doesn’t count toward that figure. The only mystery is whether the Dodgers choose to flex their financial might with an even higher bid. We don’t yet know when this process will begin, as Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball still need to come to an agreement on how it will all work.
16. A.J. Burnett: As Jeff said in this episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm”: “Simple, simple, simple.” Mutual affection between him and the Pirates. Bring him back on a one-year deal and let the Pirates work on other matters so they can build on their 2013 success.
21. Granderson: Of the 13 players who received qualifying offers, he’s the most likely to accept it, with the thinking of rebounding from his injury-plagued 2013 and putting up a better platform season for $14.1 million. But I’m betting he ultimately declines it, for there’s too much demand out there for a power bat. I think the Mets are likely to give up one draft pick but not two (which is why I think they’ll pass on Stephen Drew), and I think this could be their guy. He’s a New York fit, and adding him and Peralta to their lineup would certainly represent a significant upgrade.
24. Marlon Byrd: He seems to have been a very good fit in Pittsburgh, and I can’t see his market being robust thanks to his age (36) and his underwhelming 2011 and 2012 seasons. So a one-year re-up seems like a decent possibility.
OK, now for part two of our companion piece: The New York free agents that didn’t make the top 30.
1. Phil Hughes: He isn’t returning to the Yankees, obviously. I think he’s a very good fit for the Mets, who would like to add a veteran arm, but don’t see themselves contending in the Santana/Jimenez/Garza arena — or maybe not even the Bronson Arroyo/Ricky Nolasco/Jason Vargas one.
Hughes will likely be a one-year contract guy (should we say $7.5 million) looking to build up his value, and he figures to do better in a more friendly ballpark than Yankee Stadium. The Mets, who prioritize statistical analysis under Sandy Alderson, have to like Hughes’ generally impressive strikeouts-to-walks count, too.
2. Brendan Ryan: We saw him join the Yankees in September, and he seems like the perfect fit to be Derek Jeter’s stand-in at shortstop in 2014. He won’t cost a lot. He can be Jeter’s late-inning replacement in the best-case scenario, a short-term everyday guy in the worst-case scenario.
3. Johan Santana: I’m betting he goes back to the Twins for either a small guarantee with myriad bonuses or maybe even a minor-league contract. There’s just so much mutual love and familiarity there, and Santana will benefit from a comfortable setting in order to become the first known pitcher to return from two surgeries to repair torn capsules in his pitching shoulder.
4. LaTroy Hawkins: He seems like a cinch to return to the Mets, who loved having him. One year, obviously. $3 million?
5. Pedro Feliciano: He earned another look from someone, probably as a minor-league invite. Could be the Mets, though he’ll probably go wherever he thinks there’s the best chance to make a club and rebuild his value. He turns 38 in February. His arm must feel like it’s 88, though.
6. Tim Byrdak: He showed very little when he came back to the Mets. If not for the fact that he threw a ball with his left hand, he’d have trouble getting even a minor-league deal.
7. Frank Francisco: Probably not the Mets, right? Deserved or not, his reputation has taken a hit for the past two years. He might have to settle for a minor-league deal somewhere.
8. Joba Chamberlain: His youth (28) and ability to miss bats should give him some choices, even after a dreadful 2013. I’ll say the Angels. Current Angels GM Jerry DiPoto had some interest in Chamberlain when he was running the Diamondbacks (and shopping Dan Haren) back in 2010. But really, he could fit in so many places as a low-risk bullpen arm.
Your Pop Quiz answer is Joe DiMaggio. If you have a tidbit that correlates baseball to popular culture, please email me here.