MLB

Mets confidential

Johan Santana deserves the benefit of the doubt for now, that a sprained ankle and not a fatigued left shoulder, was to blame for his July nosedive with the Mets.

Anybody who watched Santana’s right ankle buckle as Reed Johnson stepped on it at first base on July 6 probably winced.

Santana being Santana, he refused to use the ankle as an excuse and kept pitching — to horrendous results — and finally hit the disabled list 1 1/2 weeks ago. The Mets are now expecting him to begin throwing from a mound today and hope he can return to the rotation next week.

METS-GIANTS BOX SCORE

The scarier possibility for the Mets is Santana’s left shoulder — almost two years removed from surgery for a torn anterior capsule — is nearly shot. The latter scenario would not only end whatever slim hopes the Mets have of rebounding into playoff contention this year, but also potentially impact 2013.

So look to Santana’s expected return from the DL and his subsequent appearances as a focal point of August for the Mets.

As for July, the Mets might want to forget it existed. A quick review:

MVP

David Wright gets the honor for the fourth straight month after hitting seven homers and driving in 21 runs for July.

Though Wright isn’t getting on base nearly as much as he was earlier this season, there can be no arguing with his runs production. With the starting rotation struggling, it’s often been Wright with a home run to at least give the Mets a chance. He still has an opportunity to finish with one of the top offensive seasons in franchise history.

LVP

Who else but Jason Bay? Forget whether Bay belongs in the starting lineup. The question is whether he belongs on a major league roster.

By the conclusion of this road trip there is a good chance Bay will be displaced in left field by Mike Baxter or Scott Hairston or some combination of both. The next logical step for the Mets would entail swallowing the $19 million Bay is owed for 2013, including the buyout of his 2014 option, and cutting their losses in much the same manner they did with Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo. The $60 million former general manager Omar Minaya spent on Perez and Castillo was a bargain compared to the $66 million wasted on Bay.

LOOKING AHEAD

The August schedule could offer the Mets a chance to return above .500, but also remember this is the same team that lost four of six games against the Cubs this season.

If the Mets can somehow get to late August with a puncher’s chance in the wild-card race, they will be staring at 13 straight games against the Rockies, Astros, Phillies and Marlins. All four of those teams are a bigger mess than the Mets. There are also six straight games against the Padres and Marlins beginning this weekend, giving the Mets more hope.

ON THE HOT SEAT

Josh Thole isn’t a bad major league catcher, but he has hardly brought the kind of stability to the position the Mets have needed. Thole should consider the final two months of this season a tryout for 2013. His defensive shortcomings would be less noticeable if he drove in a few more runs.

ON THE FARM

Zack Wheeler is expected to make his first start for Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday, but it still remains a long shot the organization’s No. 1 pitching prospect will wear a Mets uniform this season.

Jenrry Mejia has struggled with consistency all season and probably doesn’t figure into the Mets’ plans for 2012. Maybe the Mets’ best remaining hope for significant help from the farm — after bringing up Matt Harvey last week — is Lucas Duda, who needs to rediscover his swing and return to the majors.

mpuma@nypost.com

5 KEY STATS

1 Extra-base hit by Jason Bay in July.

3 Saves by the Mets bullpen for July — the team’s fewest in any calendar month this season. The previous low was five, in June.

4.9 Runs per game scored on the road this season by the Mets, which led the major leagues.

8 Pitchers started a game for the Mets in July, as Johan Santana and Dillon Gee were placed on the disabled list.

25 Games in which the Mets pitching staff held opponents to one run or less – tied for most in the majors.

GAME OF THE MONTH:

METS 6, PHILLIES 5

July 5

David Wright’s RBI single in the ninth gave the Mets a second dramatic victory of the season against Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon.

Daniel Murphy’s RBI single off Papelbon’s leg tied the game before Wright won it with his fourth RBI of the night. The Mets had previously beaten Papelbon on May 7, when Jordany Valdespin hit a three-run homer against him.