The Syrian crisis that started 17 months ago as a peaceful uprising against a despot has passed through several incarnations, from massacre of civilians to civil war. It is now becoming an international war, fought via proxies.
On one side we have 78 nations, banded together as “Friends of Syria,” that have already held three conferences to coordinate policy. The 27 members of the European Union provide the bloc’s backbone, with the United States also playing a major role. It also includes 18 of the Arab League’s 22 members, plus some 33 other nations from across the globe. Although a few members have authoritarian regimes, this is largely a democratic bloc.
The bloc has passed a number of resolutions in support of the Syrian people’s democratic aspirations. Over the months, however, it has summed up its positions as a straight demand for the replacement of Bashar al-Assad as president of Syria. Even a “Yemen-style” solution would be acceptable, allowing the bulk of the present regime in Damascus to share a large chunk of power.
But this is precisely what the other side does not want. Determined to prevent the Syrian revolution from winning, this bloc has just held a two-day, 29-nation conference in Tehran and come out with its solution for Syria: preventing the fall of Bashar al-Assad.
Most members of the bloc are nondemocratic countries with the Islamic Republic in Iran as chief coordinator while Russia provides big power leadership.
China, which has supported Assad by vetoing three UN Security Council resolutions, kept a low profile at the gathering, fresh sign of its inability to develop a coherent Middle East policy.
Six Arab states — Mauritania, Sudan, Algeria, Jordan, Iraq and Oman — attended the Tehran gathering. But Oman and Jordan have also joined the “Friends of Syria” bloc — and both, along with Iraq, have repeatedly called for Assad’s departure, while Algeria and Mauritania have maintained a neutral stance.
Only Sudan, whose President Omar al-Bashir has been indicted for crimes against humanity, has openly backed Assad.
Three of the supposedly close US allies — Pakistan, Afghanistan and Georgia — joined the Tehran crowd, apparently to please Russia and Iran. Armenia also came because Turkey, its hate object, opposes Assad.
Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador have been high-profile in support of Assad, presumably as part of their anti-US foreign policy. Other dyed-in-the-wool anti-West regimes, notably Belarus and Zimbabwe, are also loud members of the save-Assad club.
Yet only three countries invited to Tehran sent foreign ministers — indicating that most wish to please Russia and Iran without getting too committed to what may prove to be a lost cause.
The Russo-Iranian strategy has two planks. The first is to step up military support for Assad so that he can continue fighting for several more weeks or months. Moscow and Tehran know that much of Syria is no longer under Assad’s effective control — but they believe that if he can hang on to parts of Damascus and Aleppo, he may yet manage to survive.
The second plank is to use the Security Council to prevent international intervention to stop the massacre in Syria. The idea is that, absent UN endorsement, major Western powers can’t sell intervention to their war-weary publics. This would enable the “Friends of Assad” bloc to increase its intervention while the “Friends of Syria” bloc is hamstrung.
To keep alive the illusion that a diplomatic solution is still possible, the “Friends of Assad” bloc aims to resuscitate the cadaver of the so-called Annan Peace Plan. Although Kofi Annan himself has admitted that the plan didn’t have a ghost of a chance, a new man is to be enlisted to chase the same mirage.
The new mirage-chaser is 78-year-old Lakhdar Brahimi, a former Algerian foreign minister who’s led diplomatic missions on Afghanistan and Iraq, among others. Brahimi is a more experienced diplomat than Annan and has the advantage of being a native Arabic speaker and being well informed about Syria and the Middle East as a whole.
Nevertheless, he’s destined to fail — because the Russia-Iran team is determined to deny him the key to a solution: the replacement of Assad by one of his vice presidents.