Dear John: Could you please clear up a question for me: If 368,000 people apply for unemployment each week, and 150,000 enter the work force, that is 1.54 million people without jobs.
If the June job add is 176,000, does that mean that 1.368 million people found jobs? C.D.
Dear C.D. Whoa! I have no idea how you came up with those numbers.
But in any event, there are so many different ways that the job market is measured that it’s impossible to comprehend what’s really going on.
First, the 368,000 figure you mention — it’s the number of people who are filing for first-time unemployment insurance.
You would have to subtract the number of people who are getting off unemployment insurance — either because they are finding work or running out of benefits — to make any sense out of that number. Experts only use the weekly new-claims figure in order to detect a trend.
The 150,000 figure you quote, I believe, is the estimate of what the experts are predicting from the government’s monthly survey of job creation. That figure, when it is released the first Friday of every month, comes from a massive survey of employers.
But it is also adjusted for seasonality and has some guesses included, so the final figure is anything but pure.
The 176,000 figure you quote seems to come from the latest ADP survey, which is a private tally of non-government hiring (or firings).
The government’s monthly survey includes government workers; ADP doesn’t.
Just to make this more confusing, the government also surveys households about job creation. A separate figure on job growth comes out monthly from this survey.
But what people mostly look at is the unemployment rate that comes from the household survey.
That unemployment rate, however, is calculated several different ways. This is done in order to include people who are only working part time because they can’t find full-time jobs, and those who have become too discouraged to work.
There’s also a monthly survey by a private company called Trim Tabs, which says — like ADP — that it derives its figures from payroll tax filings.
So essentially what you have here is a mess.
It’s not surprising to me that you are confused; a lot of times it has had me puzzled as well.
Dear John: The name on my birth certificate reads Enrique. I was born in New York City in 1953.
I entered public school in 1958, and the records show Henry, which is an Americanized version of my name.
Through all my school years and my employment, I have been Henry.
Now, as I approach retirement, how do I apply for Social Security benefits?
Am I Enrique, as shown on my birth certificate, or Henry, as shown on my payroll and Social Security records? H.S.
Dear H.S. Believe it or not, this is a very common problem.
And I discussed your case with a Social Security official. He thinks you should call Social Security at (800) 772-1213 and make an appointment. There’s an office in your town.
My source at Social Security says the government understands how Latino and other names often morph into Americanized versions.
Each year, about three months before your birthday, you should be getting an annual statement from Social Security. The retirement system, obviously, would have your name as it is listed on that statement.
You’ll just have to prove you are who you say you are. They’ll tell you the IDs needed when you call.
Send your questions to Dear John, The NY Post, 1211 Ave. of the Americas, NY, NY 10036, or john.crudele@nypost.com.