Stephen Strasburg starts tonight in San Francisco against Tim Lincecum. Yet what overshadows an intriguing matchup is an ever-present tick-tock in a sport without a clock.
For there is no bigger story in the game now than the controversy surrounding the Nationals’ plans to send Strasburg on an early vacation, likely in the first or second week of September. Washington officials have stated emphatically for months that when they feel Strasburg has had enough — believed to be at about 160-170 innings (he is at 133 1/3 now) — he will be shut down until spring training.
In June, when I spoke to Washington GM Mike Rizzo, he emphatically said the decision “is not changing … To ask [Strasburg] to throw 200 innings now [after Tommy John surgery and just 24 innings in 2011], that is not a prudent way to do business with a 23-year-old, top-of-the-rotation starter we plan to have for a long time. It’s going to be painful, and we are going to take grief. But I will not shy away from it. I am the caretaker of this organization for the long haul.”
Rizzo was right: The grief is growing as D(Dismissal)-Day nears. The furor is going to far exceed the Joba Rules brouhaha. There is a large bloc — growing louder by the day — wondering how in the name of Bob Gibson a franchise that has not made the playoffs since 1981 when they were the Montreal Expos can decommission its perfectly healthy ace based on theory, but no definitive facts.
Although I disagree with what the Nationals are doing, I certainly see sound reasons for forging this plan.
I remember then-Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson telling me more than a decade ago something that has always stuck: You can’t ask someone who has trained as a sprinter to run a marathon — meaning you are promoting physical breakdown if you push an athlete to take his body way beyond wherever he has trained to do, especially an athlete that already has broken down from usage.
Plus, cooler heads always should be thinking big picture over being a slave to the moment. After all, we all remember how Johan Santana absolutely had to throw those career-high 134 pitches — damn the shoulder surgery — so the Mets could get their first no-hitter. Since then, of course, Santana has been to the DL and has a 7.98 ERA, second worst in the majors (minimum 40 innings) to Derek Lowe (8.13), who was released by the Indians and signed by the Yankees.
Then there is the case of Jordan Zimmerman, whom the Nationals babied to 161 innings last season following Tommy John surgery and has emerged to be Strasburg’s equal or superior. In fact, even without Strasburg, Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez would give the Nats as good a 1-2 starting punch as any NL team, certainly better than Atlanta, the team Washington is trying to hold off to capture the NL East. Plus in Edwin Jackson, Ross Detwiler and John Lannan, the Nats have more than enough to round out a rotation.
“Nobody knows how this is going to turn out, which is why, like anything in life, it is not about outcome, but process,” said an NL personnel head. “They have been consistent with their process that their medical research and intelligence says this is the best course of action to benefit the organization long term.”
Yet because of the “long term,” I would seriously consider going against my belief system here, create a six-man rotation the rest of the regular season and keep Strasburg pitching into the playoffs as long as he shows no indications of breakdown. My thoughts are based on a conversation I had with an NL executive. He essentially asked: Did I think Strasburg was the type of pitcher who would have a long career based on the taxing way he throws and that he already has broken down. We both agreed no and thought Kerry Wood was the best comp.
“It is educated guesswork to think 160 innings is a magic number, just like it is educated guesswork to think he is the type who will not have a long career,” the executive said. “And if you think that, then how can you waste this moment now for a championship when protecting him probably won’t matter? The Yankees protected Joba [Chamberlain] like he was a Faberge Egg and he broke. Some guys are just more likely to break. I think Strasburg is in that category. Plus, he has [Scott] Boras as an agent, so you may be saving him so that he can break the bank with someone else some day.”
D-Day is coming. The Nats say they will not flinch. It is the most fascinating story in the sport.
Yanks not kidding
The Yankees are the lone team in the majors yet to have a rookie take an at-bat this season. That is, in part, due to trading Jesus Montero (who retained his rookie status for this season) and also because they have entrusted — with success — veterans such as Eric Chavez, Raul Ibanez, Jayson Nix and Andruw Jones to fill supplementary roles.
However, with his five strong innings against Texas on Monday, David Phelps’ ERA moved to 2.53, which is second among rookies (minimum 50 innings) to the Rangers’ Robbie Ross, who went into last night at 1.81.
Derek Lowe relieved Phelps on Monday and threw four shutout innings. He had not thrown four consecutive shutout innings in any of his last 10 starts before being released by the Indians.
Davey deserves call to the Hall
The Nationals have the majors’ best record and Davey Johnson is their manager. At this point, we cannot say that is a coincidence.
In fact, Johnson’s body of work — from above-average all-around second baseman — to successful manager now in five locales means we have to think seriously about this: Davey Johnson, Hall of Famer.
Consider that he went into last night 285 games over .500 for his managerial career. That is 18th all-time. Fourteen of the 17 ahead of him are in the Hall and the other three — Bobby Cox, Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre — will be voted upon by the Expansion Era (1973-present) committee in December 2013. The 19th-ranked manager on the list, Miller Huggins, also is in the Hall. The 20th-ranked, Billy Martin, like Johnson, was a very good second baseman who had success in a variety of places as a skipper.
But, to me, Johnson is a superior candidate to Martin for the totality of his baseball life. He was a better player: A four-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winner whose 42 homers in 1973 remains tied with Rogers Hornsby as the single-season record for a second baseman. (He hit a 43rd as a pinch-hitter.)
As a manager, he presided over the most successful era in Mets history, winning a title in 1986. He has this unique/impressive double: He delivered four playoff teams in five years managing for problematic owners Marge Schott in Cincinnati and Peter Angelos in Baltimore.
This is Johnson’s 13th full season as a manager and his 1999 Dodgers were the only team in that time to finish below .500 and below second in the division. His uber-confidence (arrogance?) rubs off on his players and one admiring NL personnel man said, “I think Davey Johnson is one of the five best managers in baseball — everywhere he goes, he wins. He does a great job using his bench and putting his players in a position to succeed.”