Opinion

Bibi’s ‘October surprise’ checklist

The headlines never stop: President Obama is secretly contacting Tehran; America’s top general won’t be “complicit” in an Israeli attack; The White House is trying to “calm” Israel.

So will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities before the election?

According to the latest buzz in Washington and Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is just bluffing: Bibi’s consistent hints that he might launch an attack are merely meant to push a re-election-hungry President Obama to adopt a tougher stance on Iran.

Maybe. But sources tell me that Netanyahu’s Iran decision will largely depend on his late-September pow-wow with Obama during the annual United Nations gabfest. Will Obama follow up by publicly declaring “red lines” for when America’s patience with Iran wears out? Will he secretly promise an American attack on the nuclear facilities, say, after Election Day?

Or will he call Netanyahu’s “bluff” and tell him to stuff it?

At the best of times, Obama and Netanyahu are more Odd Couple than Ozzie and Harriet. Can Felix and Oscar stay nice until Nov. 6?

Obama’s worried about his job; Netanyahu, his nation. Listening to the mullahs’ increasingly genocidal statements, Bibi has reasonably concluded that a nuclear Iran would threaten the existence of the Jewish state.

So he’ll act to stop it if and when he concludes that:

A) Iran is nearing nuclear capability.

B) Efforts by the “international community” won’t stop it.

C) America will never attack.

D) And the Israel Defense Force can significantly retard the Iranian nuke pursuit.

Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency moved the ball on the “capability” question, noting in its quarterly report that Iran’s nuclear program is accelerating. The UN watchdog also identified suspected military components of the program, which Iran is trying to conceal.

And the IAEA reported that Iran is fast relocating its enrichment efforts to Fordow, a facility buried deep in a rocky mountainside.

That’s significant for the IDF: Unlike the US military’s, Israel’s planes and bombs can’t reliably destroy Fordow, so its window for action is closing fast: If it acts, it must strike before the relocation is finished.

The global efforts to stop Iran may impress US diplomats, but Netanyahu says current sanctions have yet to change Iran’s nuclear calculations “one iota.”

Which leaves America. Obama says he’s got Israel’s back and that “all options are on the table,” but what to make of these dizzying headlines?

* Israel’s Yediot Ahronot reported this week that Obama secretly told Tehran (through European emissaries) that if Israel acts, it’d be without US approval, so please spare our troops in the Gulf. (White House spokesman Jay Carney denies it.)

* Last week, Yediot reported that Dan Shapiro, the US ambassador in Tel Aviv, erupted at Netanyahu as he complained about Obama’s Iran weakness during a Jerusalem meeting.(Shapiro calls the story “silly.”)

* Also last week, the Guardian reported that Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs, told London reporters that he didn’t want to be “complicit” in an Israeli attack on Iran. (No one’s denying the account.)

* Time is reporting this week that the US military is scaling back next month’s joint military exercises with Israel. (The Pentagon cites budget constraints).

* The New York Times reported Monday that “to calm Israel” the White House is weighing new Iran options. But sources say one measure — deploying a radar system in Qatar — is meant to signal to Iran that “even if” it develops a nuclear weapon, it would be “countered by antimissile system.”

That last item raises a huge question: What about Obama’s promise to prevent Iran from getting a bomb? “Containment of a nuclear Iran is not an option,” he said.

Netanyahu can be somewhat reassured after Obama’s Democrats yesterday reinstated language in their platform affirming Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Yet the platform flip-flop still shows worrisome signs of erosion in what until very recently was strong bipartisan support of Israel.

So maybe we’ll be spared an October surprise. But whether Obama is re-elected or not, much of his legacy will hinge on that promise to stop Iran’s nukes. Even if he manages to “buy time” with Netanyahu, his own time to act is quickly running out.

Twitter: @bennyavni