It is the right question to the wrong person. We keep asking Andy Pettitte whether he will pitch in 2013 when we should be inquiring just how much the Yankees will beg him to do so.
Of all the injuries and issues that have beset the 2012 Yankees, nothing has been more damaging — short-term and, especially long-term — than the extended absences of Michael Pineda and Manuel Banuelos.
The Yankees were counting on that duo emerging this year as reliable rotation options. And, more vital for a team vowing to get under the $189 million luxury tax threshold in 2014, the Yankees viewed Pineda and Banuelos as a high-ceiling/low-cost combo to make the inevitable decline of CC Sabathia more tolerable.
Well, Sabathia’s decline may be coming much quicker than anticipated — without the rise of Pineda and Banuelos.
What does this have to do with Pettitte and next season? Well, the Yankees cannot formulate a 2013 rotation that includes Pineda, who missed this whole season after shoulder surgery, or Banuelos, who made just six Triple-A starts before being shut down with elbow troubles. The Yankees plan for Banuelos to pitch winter ball and be ready in the spring. Pineda probably will not be available to the Yankees to begin next year. Brian Cashman told me yesterday he would assemble a 2013 rotation without Pineda or Banuelos, and then consider it a benefit if one or both returns to help.
That leaves Sabathia, Phil Hughes (likely to have his salary climb to around $7 million for his walk year), Ivan Nova and, perhaps, David Phelps. They have no intention to go after Zack Greinke, the best starter available in free agency. You could make a pretty good case the next-best free-agent starters — particularly for a Yankees team that wants to limit contract length while knowing the arms in question can succeed in their environment — are Hiroki Kuroda and Pettitte.
Thus, the Yankees will feel pressure to re-sign both, though Kuroda turns 38 in February and Pettitte 41 next June. What other choices does a team with championship aspirations have? The Yankees can add Kuroda and Pettitte to Sabathia, Nova and Hughes, have Phelps in a similar swing role as this year and perhaps Pineda and/or Banuelos will provide depth for an aging group.
Of course, Pettitte, whose return from three months missed with a fracture near his ankle was postponed by rain last night, must prove he can still perform and then want to play next year. Also, Pettitte almost certainly will demand a salary of much more than this year’s $2.5 million. But he essentially only wants to play for the Yankees and go a year at a time with a contract. That works for an organization trying not to commit dollars beyond 2013 when it has the $189 million quest for 2014.
Kuroda has accepted one-year contracts each of the past two seasons (one with the Dodgers, one with the Yankees). He has demonstrated comfort is important to him — for example by refusing a trade to the Yankees during the 2011 season. So he likely will limit his destinations to New York or Southern California next year. But his strong season for the Yankees has positioned him to command more than a one-year pact if he desires. Considering his age and the 2014 edict, that will give the Yankees pause.
But, as we have learned this summer, the Dodgers have no fear of spending well into the future to build up their roster and brand. Under new ownership, the Padres conceivably could bid, too. Even the Angels could reject contract options for Dan Haren and/or Ervin Santana and pursue Kuroda. He will, in other words, have a market.
It would have been easier to let Kuroda and/or Pettitte go had Pineda and/or Banuelos emerged this season. Instead, because of the failure of youth, the Yankees will be desperate to retain their two oldest starters.
October: Where ‘wild’ things spar
I Still sense a large segment of fans do not fully appreciate the ramifications of new postseason rules this year.
For example, folks know that with two wild cards in each league a one-game knockout now will be played. But I wonder if fans yet can grasp what it will feel like to follow a team day by day for six months and then have the playoffs end in three hours. And I think it will have worse fallout if, say, the Braves have a better record than the second NL wild card by 7-10 games and have six months of clear superiority mean nothing if they have one bad game.
Also, I wonder how many fans recognize the wild-card winner will host the first two games of the Division Series against the team with the best record in the league. If the wild-card winner sweeps on its home field, a team that finished with the best record in the league would have to win three straight at home to advance to the LCS.
And yesterday, on his ESPN.com blog, Buster Olney reported teams involved in the one-game wild-card playoff can change their 25-man rosters for the Division Series. This is going to create roster chicanery.
The teams involved almost certainly will remove any starting pitchers they do not anticipate being used, which will allow them to carry extra relievers or position players. A team could carry eight or nine pitchers for the one game with extra lefty relief and have 16 or 17 position players left over to provide, say, pinch-running specialists.
The rule should be changed for next year by forcing teams in the wild-card game to lock in their roster through the Division Series.
Aardsma ahead of Feliciano
Pedro Feliciano’s horror-show tenure as a Yankee continued when he sprained his ankle covering first base in a rehab outing. That all but removed any chance he had to join the team for the stretch or playoffs. Feliciano only was topping out in the 83-84 mph range anyway. He has not pitched an inning for the Yankees since signing a two-year, $8 million deal after the 2010 season.
However, the Yankees still are holding out some hope David Aardsma could pitch this year. He was signed to a contract for 2012 with an option for 2013, particularly targeting next year after the righty’s Tommy John surgery. But he threw again yesterday and the Yankees think the one-time Mariners closer still might join them.