In close elections, everything counts; that’s why the 2012 presidential debates could be decisive.
Conventional wisdom suggests President Obama has the advantage, but Mitt Romney has more to gain and less to lose.
In a recent CNN poll, likely voters picked Obama to win the debates, 59 percent to 34 percent. That means Romney has the benefit of low expectations — which is not a backhanded compliment.
Performance relative to expectations — more than the actual performance — is often the lasting verdict. Companies losing money, but whose earnings beat expectations, see their stocks rise — and vice versa.
That applies to candidates. Because Democrats (and friendly media) have reduced Romney to a caricature and elevated Obama to a myth, it will be relatively easier for the Republican to impress in the debate — and harder for the Democrat to not disappoint.
That’s a big advantage for Romney.
Yet Romney is actually the more experienced debater. That doesn’t mean he is the better one, but experience matters.
Romney has endured two grueling nomination fights and a slew of debates against a long list of opponents. All this year, he has been the prime target.
Obama, by contrast, has faced Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and John McCain — and no one in four years.
And that debate experience also has proved that Romney can take a punch; indeed, there shouldn’t be many punches that he hasn’t taken at this point.
Obama has not taken a punch for a long time — and has proven very thin-skinned when he’s had to.
And in a debate environment, there’s no White House staff to cover for him if he makes a gaffe under pressure. Obama’s off-TelePrompTer penchant for saying what he wants, rather than what’s wisest, could lead to big trouble quickly.
And, of course, the mere fact of the debates helps Romney: These contests inevitably elevate the challenger to equality with the incumbent — that’s why challengers always ask for so many and incumbents agree to so few.
The shared stage poses another problem for the president: The so-friendly media can’t filter his performance for the public. Viewers will see and judge for themselves; biased analysis and tendentious “fact-checking” can’t get in the way.
Finally, the debates give Romney a far better chance to address his top liability than for Obama to address his own.
Romney’s liability is his likability; Obama’s is the economy. It is a lot easier to come off as normal and likable in a debate — as Ronald Reagan did against Jimmy Carter in 1980 (“There he goes again”) — than to create jobs or explain away their absence.
As we reach the end of a close election, debates may be determinative. And nowhere in this election is conventional wisdom more likely to be wrong than about the debates’ outcome. The opportunity almost certainly favors Romney — who has more to gain and less to lose, and is better positioned to achieve it.
Political analyst J.T. Young was a congressional and Executive Branch staffer from 1987 to 2004.