There is perhaps no more top-heavy team in the majors than the Tigers.
Miguel Cabrera arguably is the majors’ best hitter and Justin Verlander the best pitcher. Cabrera has an excellent sidekick in Prince Fielder and the Tigers have a good rotation behind Verlander. But after that, Detroit’s talent base really begins to tail off.
The Tigers had an unexpected battle to win the AL Central. But they are in the ALCS for the third time under Jim Leyland. On the first two occasions, Detroit beat the Yankees to get there. Now, the Tigers would have to outdo the Yanks in a best-of-seven to continue pursuing its first title since 1984.
Here are the key elements for the Tigers:
JUSTIN TIME
The Yanks got a minor break. Because Verlander was needed in Game 5 of the ALDS, he cannot pitch before Game 3. Still, he looms over this series, possibly to start twice if it goes the distance, and an NL scout said, “If he shows up with his ‘A’ game like he did [in the ALDS finale against Oakland] then I really don’t know what you do. When he has fastball control, feel for his change and his curve is obeying, he is the best pitcher in the world. You hope for a walk, a bloop single and a homer, and that your starter doesn’t give up more than two [runs].”
Verlander creates this dilemma: You want to work counts, build up his pitch count and get him out of the game, but if “you sit back and wait for him to make a mistake, you will be staring at a complete-game shutout,” an NL personnel man said. “You have to be aggressive when you are even or ahead in the count and look to do damage.”
The Yanks have been generally good at working Verlander and delivering a few meaningful blows. The Yankees’ .859 regular-season OPS vs. Verlander is the second best by any team. And there are Yankees with some strong numbers against him. Nick Swisher and Alex Rodriguez each have three homers. Derek Jeter (.364), Ichiro Suzuki (.309), Eric Chavez (.360); Brett Gardner (.455) and Russell Martin (.357) hit Verlander, Robinson Cano (.184), Raul Ibanez (.103) and Mark Teixeira (.086) not so much.
GRIND
No matter what they do against Verlander, the Yankee offensive mindset against the Tigers’ other three starters — Max Scherzer, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez — has to be to extend at-bats and shorten outings. That is because the Achilles arm of this team is its bullpen.
Scouts describe the stuff of the eighth-ninth-inning tandem of Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde as down dramatically, so Leyland might have to expand the roles of Octavio Dotel and Al Alburquerque. Main lefty Phil Coke has a 6.23 ERA in 14 playoff games and Curtis Granderson has two homers in 10 at-bats against one of the players the Yanks traded for him.
An NL scout said, “If you do not get into their pen somewhat early, you have given them an advantage.”
Also, keep this in mind — all four Detroit starters are righties. Rodriguez hit so poorly against righties in the ALDS that he was benched for Game 5. Verlander is actually the Tigers starter he hits best; he is 2-for-24 against the other three.
AVOID MIGUEL
You never want to let Cabrera beat you. But this Yankees rotation needs to be particularly mindful of that. Cabrera has 10 homers in 79 at-bats against CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda and Phil Hughes. Projected over 600 at-bats that would be 76 homers, just to give you an idea how menacing Miguel has been. The Yankees would feel better if they must attack Cabrera in the late game with David Robertson (1-for-5) or Rafael Soriano (1-for-9).
And if faced with a situation in which you must go after Cabrera, scouts accentuated two concepts: Cabrera does great damage if you go east and west, destroying mistakes on the inner half and driving balls away with authority to right field. It is best to think of pitching him north and south, to change his eye level rather than side to side. Also, because Cabrera has so few weaknesses as a hitter, it is best to pitch to your strengths because as an AL scout said, “good luck finding a weakness. This guy makes pitch-to-pitch adjustments as well as anyone in the game. I can keep going or I can just say this: He won the darn Triple Crown. That doesn’t happen by accident.”
An NL personnel head added, “When many pitchers try to get ‘cute,’ they try to use or make pitches that their skillset doesn’t let them [make against Cabrera]. That’s a recipe for disaster.”
THE NON-CABRERAS
If you are working around Cabrera, then you’d better do a superb job minimizing the impact of the others in the lineup, notably Austin Jackson and Quintin Berry against righties/Omar Infante against lefties in front of Cabrera, and Prince Fielder and Delmon Young behind him.
Fielder is a terrific hitter, not just power guy. But when it comes to picking poison, scouts were unanimous that you have to go after Fielder not Cabrera. Righties can try to treat Fielder like they used to treat Jason Giambi — breaking balls toward his back foot. You can expect Boone Logan to see plenty of Fielder in left-on-left moments (Fielder had an .808 OPS vs. southpaws and 1.017 vs. righties, fourth in the majors). Young is a free-swinging wild card who can hurt the opponent or his team. He played eight Division Series games against the Yanks in 2010-11 and hit .323. And his .542 average (13-for-24) is the best all-time vs. Andy Pettitte (minimum 20 plate appearances).
THE DEFENSE RESTS
The additions of Berry and Andy Dirks to join Jackson has turned the Tigers outfield defense from a liability to an asset.
But the infield has remained problematic, especially when it comes to range across the board with Fielder, Infante, Jhonny Peralta and Cabrera, such are the ramifications of signing Fielder and having to move Cabrera to third, where he is game, but limited.
Detroit’s inability to produce outs in the infield and convert double plays was a huge factor in why it failed to dominate the AL Central, as was expected. No matter which statistical system you use, Detroit was among the worst at turning batted balls into outs. Thus, there is more of an imperative than ever for the Yankees to put the ball in play and force the Tigers to defend. That could mean there is a role in this series for Gardner’s slap-and-run style.
“That is one of the great things about Verlander,” an NL personnel head said. “He strikes out so many guys that he limits the vulnerability of a very vulnerable defense.”
joel.sherman@nypost.com