IT’S IN THE BAG: Dave Blezow is sure the Saints and Drew Brees will march their way to a cover. (Getty Images)
In the NFL, you’re always looking for the bounce-back team, the one seeking vengeance after a brutal defeat. Same goes for handicappers who went 1-11-1 — the kind of picket fence that could leave you without a house behind it if you bet too much on the selections. That was the record here last week, including a loss that dropped the Lock of the Week to 1-6 for the season. Despite inquiries from some ultra-literal guys who rightly wonder how a “lock” could be 1-6, I forge ahead with that component of the picks, as I know there may be some out there who want that information so they can go the other way. Fair enough, but bad luck to them. The comeback starts with these:
COWBOYS (+1 1/2 ) over Giants: Big Blue have had two no-doubters (Carolina and San Francisco) but while the record is a healthy 5-2, it has been tough watching the sausage get made in some of these games. All of the focus is on the Cowboys missing their top two running backs, but Tony Romo still has quite an arsenal, and the defense is ranked No. 2 in the NFC. Great way to spend a late Sunday afternoon.
Dolphins (+2) over JETS: The Dolphins are ranked No. 4 in stopping the run and the Jets’ defense is 30th, and Reggie Bush had 61 yards in the first meeting before getting hurt. Jets offense is coming to life with Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill and Dustin Keller as Mark Sanchez’s three go-to guys, but this will be a tight, ugly game and the spread, though small, could help decide.
PATRIOTS (-7) over Rams: Rams have to be kicking themselves a bit for moving this “home game” to London, given that they are 3-1 in their dome. Patriots crushed Tampa Bay 35-7 in their one visit across the pond in 2009, so they know how to make this trip. Liking what Jeff Fisher and Sam Bradford are doing but can see this one getting away from them a bit.
TITANS (-3 1/2) over Colts: Titans have won their last two but still are giving up an incredible 32.8 points per game for the season. Not ready to back Colts on the road yet, though. They have lost by a combined 76-30 at the Bears and Jets.
PACKERS (-15 1/2) over Jaguars: QB Blaine Gabbert is hoping to play with a possible torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew is out. So don’t see the Jaguars being remotely able to match points with a Packers offense that has gotten into high gear, putting up 72 points in the last two games on the road against the Texans and Rams.
BROWNS (+2 1/2) over Chargers: The tiny spread for a 3-3 vs. a 1-6 suggests the bookmakers and bettors know the Browns are a better team than their record indicates. Chargers have had an extra week to digest blowing a 24-0 lead to the Broncos, and they will be fired up. Very tough call.
EAGLES (-2) over Falcons: Both teams are coming off byes, which is normally great news for the Eagles, who are 13-0 outright in these situations. At 3-3, they need the game to navigate the wild-card muddle and try to stay within shouting distance of the Giants. Meanwhile, the Falcons are four games clear in the AFC South. Motivational edges to the Eagles, particularly ex-Falcon Michael Vick.
LIONS (-1 1/2) over Seahawks: Thank you, Lions, for the cover on Monday night. Detroit moved the ball well against a tough Bears defense before self-destructing time and again in the red zone. More of their drives will result in points this week.
BEARS (-7 1/2) over Panthers: This one could get very ugly as the Bears’ turnover-happy defense goes up against an extremely unconfident Cam Newton. Matt Forte ought to be able to pound away at a Carolina defense now missing linebacker Jon Beason.
STEELERS (-4 1/2) over Redskins: Second straight tough road spot for Robert Griffin III and the Redskins. They covered last week against the Giants, but the Redskins defense is allowing 413 yards per game and now might be without linebacker London Fletcher, who has never missed a game in his 15-year career. Center Maurkice Pouncey’s return is a big plus for Pittsburgh.
Raiders (+1 ) over CHIEFS: Raiders have won their last five trips to Arrowhead Stadium, where the natives are restless and have their tomahawks pointed at the home team. These fans who cheered Matt Cassel’s injury several weeks ago will see how much they like Brady Quinn — and the answer likely will be not so much.
Saints (+6) over BRONCOS: What a juicy matchup for a Sunday night! Will grab the near-touchdown spread and take my chances with Drew Brees and his awakening Saints team. Don’t doubt Peyton Manning’s ability to shred a Saints defense that gives up an astounding 465 yards per game, but see another typical Broncos game in which they have to make a comeback and try to eke out a win late.
MONDAY NIGHT
49ers (-6 1/2) over CARDINALS: Fordham’s John Skelton is 6-0 as a starter at home, including a 21-19 comeback win over the 49ers last season. Nevertheless, he will be under siege against the NFL’s No. 1 defense, behind an offensive line that has allowed a ghastly 29 sacks in the last four games. Besides, Jim Harbaugh owes everyone who picked the 49ers last week one cover, after declining that safety.
BEST BETS: Saints, Lions, Steelers
LAST NIGHT: Buccaneers (W)
LAST WEEK: 1-11-1 overall, 0-3 Best Best.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Saints (Locks 1-6).