Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey has been providing The Post an inside look at the Breeders’ Cup races. Here’s his analysis of Friday’s races:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint
Just because this is a 2-year-old race does not mean it’s a preview of next year’s Kentucky Derby hopefuls because it has already been pretty much decided by their connections these horses are sprinters. Nevertheless, it is an exciting race to watch and one of these may be the sprint champion of next year.
1. Super Ninety Nine: Trainer Bob Baffert won this race last year and this speedy son of Pulpit could do it again. He went head and head going seven furlongs in his first and only race, which is hard to do. He knows how to fight, he turns back in distance (I like that) and he has a good post to press from the outside.
2. Merit Man: He’s more accomplished than the top pick with two wins in as many starts and a small stakes win to his credit. He sat just off the pace in both his wins but will be pushed from the outside by Super Ninety Nine.
3. South Floyd: Also has more experience than the top pick winning his first out, but second to Merit Man in that stake race. He is owned by Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino.
4. Sweet Shirley Mae: She has the outside post that gives her options to ease back and come with a late run, which she did in the Spinaway at Saratoga.
5. Ceiling Kitty: The most experienced one in the field with seven races and three wins under her belt. Nevertheless, because she is from the UK, she has never raced on real dirt, a big question mark.
Breeders’ Cup Marathon
If you are hungry or need to go to the bathroom, now is a good time. This is the longest race of the Breeders’ Cup weekend and in its four-year history each edition has been run slower than the previous. Don’t worry, you can still make it back in time to see what will be a close finish, especially for such a long race.
1. Eldaafer: Though you can put a blanket over three or four of these horses (and the finish will be very close), I’m going with Eldaafer because he actually has run this far before (three times in the Breeders’ Cup) and won it in 2010 carrying 126 pounds. At 7 years old, he seems on top of his game winning two back.
2. Attigun: The only 3-year-old in the race and will get a weight break, which is significant because he already has carried 126 in the Belmont at a 1 1/2 miles and was third beaten just two lengths.
3. Worth Repeating: Like the fact he has won at 1 1/2 miles at this track and is coming off a winning effort. Like many others in here, he has never won carrying more that 122 pounds, but he does have tactical speed and shouldn’t have to navigate through much if any traffic.
4. Jaycito: This 4-year-old son of Victory Gallop is a real “Steady Eddie” in terms of his running style. He has one gear and tries to just grind his competition down, which is sort of a negative in most American distances of a mile or mile and an eighth, but exactly the style needed for the Marathon distance of a 1³/ miles. He has run really well over the Santa Anita surface with two second-place finishes and one third. Going this far he should be no further back than mid-pack through the early and mid portions of the race and try to grind them down in the stretch.
5. Commander: The likely pacesetter is on a six-race win streak and without a doubt the hot horse coming into this race. He has been running at lesser quality tracks for most of the year. Nevertheless, he did run a solid second in an allowance race over the Santa Anita surface in January. He’s just a notch below in terms of quality, but the biggest question is whether he can carry his speed this distance.
An honorable mention goes to Juniper Pass on the basis that he has won at 1 3/4 before, albeit it was in April 2011. He has been winless since that race, but his last race tells me he is very close to being what he once was.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf
Unlike their male counterparts, the 2-year-old fillies form the U.S. have won every running of this event over the Europeans, and digging even deeper, the East Coast-based fillies have blanked their West Coast rivals. This year, however, the Europeans may have the edge.
1. Sky Latern: This gray filly has won 3 of 4, including her most recent, the Grade 1 Moyglare Stud stakes at the Curragh in Ireland. Though she raced in mid-pack, she can be a bit closer, and the fact she made the lead with more than an eighth of a mile to go tells me she will handle the shorter American stretch. The biggest question is will she be comfortable turning left handed, something she has yet to do. She beat a filly named Liberating by 3 1/2 lengths winning her second start, and Liberating beat Watsdachances by 4 1/2 in her maiden race.
2. Spring Venture: This undefeated filly trained by Mark Casse is 3 for 3, all in Canada, has yet to be asked for her best, winning all with plenty left. In the Natalma Stakes she was sixth or seventh through most of the race but was never more than four lengths off the lead and can be wherever the rider wants her to be early in the race.
3. Watsdachances: Had her first two races in Ireland before coming stateside (third and a win in a maiden race), and has been a perfect 2 for 2 since coming to Chad Brown. Both wins in stakes and both on firm and yielding courses. She settles mid-pack or so and comes hard late. The filly she beat in the PG Johnson came back to run second in the Alciabides at Keeneland.
4. Tara From The Cape: This filly was beaten just a length or so by Watsdachances in Saratoga and has been training brilliantly coming into this race.
5. The Gold Cheongsam: Comes from Europe and her form is better than it looks. She was in a ton of trouble and beaten just 4 1/2 lengths in a Grade 1. Tough post, but if the jockey can get a bit lucky into the first turn, she can win.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
This year we have two fillies putting unblemished records on the line, and as in the colt division it’s a trainer battle between Baffert and Todd Pletcher. Both fillies have had near misses and should be very near each other throughout the race. Though there are many other fillies in the field, I think it’s basically a match race between these two, but if the brilliantly fast Beholder is left on an easy lead, she could grab the brass ring.
1. Beholder: She will be off and running from the inside post, and it will be interesting to see if Pletcher will have Rosie Napravnik, aboard Kauai Katie, force the pace. If that happens, it really sets the race up for someone behind. If not, Beholder could take this thing gate to wire.
2. Dreaming of Julia: She’s undefeated in three starts and won her first two by a combined 26 3/4 lengths leading almost every step in those races. In her last race, the Grade 1 Frizette, she stalked the pacesetter My Happy Face early in the race, and it was all she could to get the head victory, by far her toughest test. I do like that though, because she now knows what it’s like to be in a fight, something she may need when facing the likes of Executive Privilege. Though she hasn’t run this distance nor has she been around two turns, I don’t think either will be a factor.
3. Executive Privelige: For a favorite, she is very vulnerable for a couple of reasons. She did have things totally her own way in her last winning effort, getting an easy lead with very moderate fractional times, and there is a ton of speed in here this time to go with her. Also she didn’t work all that well for this race and was bearing out through the stretch as she did when she barely beat Beholder at Del Mar.
4. Spring in the Air: She has won two of her four starts, and is a consistent and tough customer, but she has never run on real dirt, a huge concern to me. Her latest winning effort came in the Alcibiades, which is run over the synthetic poly track. In that race, she broke from an outside post, was checked a couple of times, circled the field at the top of the stretch and was able to make up eight lengths from the middle of the last turn and win with a short wire. Impressive.
5. Kauia Katie: She is the third filly in this race that is undefeated but I do have her further down because I don’t believe she will necessarily be as effective going this distance. She has never raced beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, and though she is blessed with brilliant speed, neither her breeding or running style suggest she can carry that speed far enough to win this race, and the fact that after winning at 5 1/2 , then 6 1/2 , Pletcher had a chance to stretch her out to a mile in the Frizette stakes, but instead turned her back to the shorter six-furlong Matron stakes. That tells me he thinks she may be more effective going shorter, and the speed of Beholder doesn’t help her chances.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Like the Breeders’ Cup Turf, the split between American and European horses is almost even in the Filly & Mare Turf, with the U.S. sporting a slim 7-6 advantage, but Europe has a 2-1 edge at Santa Anita. This year, Europe is coming loaded with talent, including the likes of The Fugue, Nahrain and Up, but America does have a very tough filly in Marketing Mix.
1.The Fugue: She showed a devastating late kick to win the Grade 1 Nassau Stakes in August running behind a slow pace, so if they go slow up front, it shouldn’t be an excuse. In her last race, she was beaten by just a neck by Shareta, who may be one of the choices against males in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Her trainer John Gosden has won four Breeders’ Cup races and is 16th overall in Cup money won (fourth-best among European trainers).
2. Nahrain: Came over for this race last year trying to stay undefeated and finished second to the American long shot Perfect Shirl. She returned to Europe for the summer season this year but wasn’t effective and The Fugue had their way with her. She then shipped back to New York for the Flower Bowl at Belmont and promptly won.
3. Marketing Mix: Maybe the best American hope. Has won three of her last four, the latest a Grade 1 over the Santa Anita turf course. Her style is to come from behind, so a quick pace up front would be a big help. But drawing Post 9 didn’t help her cause. Her trainer, Tom Proctor, has one Cup winner in seven attempts.
4. Zagora: She has a great post, will be in a good tactical spot early and gets the firm turf she likes. If she can reproduce her effort in the Diana at Saratoga she could be right there at the wire.
5. I’m a Dreamer: This European 5-year-old mare shipped to the states this summer and promptly won the grade one Beverly D in Chicago and since ran a very creditable fourth in the recent Flower Bowl on yielding ground — a surface she may not prefer. It stands to reason the firm course at Santa Anita may be more to her liking.
An honorable mention goes to Ridasiyna. She is talented and easily could be included in the top four. She comes fresh off a victory in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp with a stirring stretch run to win. She has three other wins on her resume with just one loss in her five starts. She’s live.
Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic
This may be the most competitive race of Breeders’ Cup weekend, and it includes the defending champ Royal Delta along with two undefeated fillies who won Breeders’ Cup races and championships in prior years, Awesome Feather and My Miss Aurelia.
1. Royal Delta: It all starts with the defending champ in this division. As usual with Bill Mott-trained horses, she has been brought around this year to peak in the Breeders’ Cup and if her win in the recent Beldame at Belmont Park is any indication, she’s as good or better than she was last year at the Cup. Her only poor race on paper this year was in the Dubai World Cup against males, and she was bounced around quite a bit in that rough race. She has won three of four races since then and has no real tactical weaknesses. Mott has won this race four times, including the last two runnings with Unrivaled Belle in 2010 and Royal Delta last year. Royal Delta is usually never more than four or five lengths from the lead and isn’t dependent on pace. She has Mike Smith aboard who has won four Ladies Classics, including with the mighty Zenyatta.
2. Awesome Feather: Her name sums it up — she’s awesome — and she’s undefeated in her 10 career starts. She was the 2-year-old champ a couple of years ago but obviously has had problems since then born out by her 11-month absence immediately following that win. She put together a string of three wins from October 2011 to January 2012, which included the Grade 1 Gazelle but then she was on the shelf again for another eight months. She reappeared again on Sept 20 to win a listed stakes race by 11 lengths, so she essentially comes into the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, (the toughest race of the year for females) with just four races in two years. She has won on the lead but prefers to stalk or press the pace and her running style is an asset. If you’re into Beyer speed figures (the higher the number the faster the performance), she owns the highest one in the field.
3. My Miss Aurelia: Another undefeated former Breeders’ Cup champion, having won the Juvenile Fillies last year. Neverthelees, she was another with a limited racing schedule since that win. She was on the sideline 10 months, from last Nov. 4 until her comeback race in Saratoga on Aug. 8 when she easily won a listed stakes race, and kudos should be given to her trainer Steve Asmussen for getting her ready for that performance after such a lengthy layoff. She followed that win with an upset head victory over Questing in the Grade 1 Cotillan stakes on Sept 22. Though My Miss Aurelia has won on the lead, she likely will stalk the pacesetter Questing, hoping to again run that one down in the stretch as well as hold off the closing kicks of Awesome Feather and then Royal Delta.
4. Questing: She has been outstanding since her training was taken over by Kiaran McLaughlin earlier this year. After a couple of turf tries in the spring, McLaughlin put her on the dirt where she has been nothing short of spectacular, winning 3 of 4 including the Grade 1 CCA Oaks, the Alabama and was second by a head in the Grade 1 Cotillian. She is speed, speed, speed and is the one to catch but surely will be kept to a good pace through the early and mid part of the race by both Awesome feather and Love and Pride. If she is allowed to go slow on the front end, she does have the class to wire the field.
5. Love and Pride: Though this Pletcher trainee will not likely be in the top four betting choices, she has a pretty impressive resume. She has won half of her eight starts this year, including a win over Royal Delta at Saratoga and most recently in the Zenyatta stakes over the Santa Anita surface at the 1¹/-mile Ladies Classic distance. To be fair, Royal Delta had beaten her in the Delaware Park Handicap, but that was at 1 1/4 miles, and this mare is likely better at 1¹/. She has speed but usually stalks the pace and would be one that could keep Questing honest along with My Miss.