Business

Netflix ‘pill’ vs. Icahn doesn’t faze the Street

Netflix wants to defend against a takeover — but Wall Street isn’t so easily deterred.

The streaming video service swallowed a “poison pill” yesterday to prevent corporate cage-rattler Carl Icahn from upping his 9.98 percent stake. More than a takeover, Icahn seems interested in rustling up potential buyers, saying “consolidation in this space makes sense.”

Already his gambit is working, with analysts openly wondering if Netflix should hang out the for-sale sign.

Rich Greenfield of BTIG Research sent out a survey yesterday asking investors if Netflix should weigh a sale and, if so, to whom.

Among the options listed were Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

Bernstein Research analyst Carlos Kirjner also ran investors through several possible sale scenarios: “In addition to Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Verizon, which Mr. Icahn mentioned, Apple is also a commonly mentioned potential acquirer of Netflix.”

Kirjner sees several obstacles, however, pointing out that Netflix CEO Reed Hastings wouldn’t sell without a big premium and that most of the major tech players could build their own competing services.

Last week, a survey from ChangeWave showed that Amazon is growing its streaming-video share versus Netflix. Amazon’s share rose from 17 percent in February to 22 percent.

One analyst noted that the key architect of Netflix’s streaming-video service is Robert Kyncl, the content chief for Google’s YouTube.

“The most likely buyers are Google and Microsoft,” said the analyst. “Google has the cash and they’ve been cementing their entertainment brand. . . . With Netflix, it allows them to have a subscription content business.”

Google was a bidder for Web TV hub Hulu when it was on the market. Google declined to comment.

Hastings isn’t going down without a fight. The shareholder-rights plan, or poison pill, acts as a defense against a shareholder that tries to amass more than a 10 percent stake. Icahn immediately slammed the move as an “example of poor corporate governance.”

Hastings may be running out of time. As competition mounts, Netflix may have to push up the cost of the $7.99 per month service or go to a HBO-like model and ramp up original production, according to IHS/Screen Digest analyst Dan Cryan.

“Their long-term health will depend on how well they can tread the tight rope between developing their own content and cherry-picking exclusive acquisitions on the one hand and buying the same non-exclusive rights as their competitors.”

Netflix has been on a wild ride the past 18 months. The firm’s market cap plunged from a high of $16 billion in July 2011 to its current $4.35 billion. The shares rose 1.74 percent to close at $78.24.