HITTING THE MARKET: Rafael Soriano (left), Nick Swisher (center) and Hiroki Kuroda are expected to decline the Yankees’ one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offers today, making them free agents. (Getty Images (3))
INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Today could be the most important day of the Yankees’ offseason. It also could be the one day this offseason in which the Yankees are the industry’s most important team.
By 5:00 p.m. Eastern time, we’ll learn whether Hiroki Kuroda, Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher have accepted or declined the Yankees’ qualifying offers of one year and $13.3 million for 2013; just five players, total, from the other 29 teams must make the same decision. Only from there will the Yankees have a perfectly clear picture of how challenging their Hot Stove assignment will be.
“We’d be very happy [if all three accepted]. Let’s put it that way,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said yesterday, at the General Managers Meetings. “It will certainly dictate and affect how we move forward, too, one way or the other.”
Let’s break down the three players, ranking them by how essential they are to the Yankees’ 2013 game plan.
1. Kuroda: Of this trio, Kuroda is the player the Yankees want most for their 2013 roster and also the one they think is most likely to accept the qualifying offer. I agree with the former sentiment and think they’re being overly optimistic on the latter. Kuroda, who made $10 million in 2012, has established himself as one of the most reliable starting pitchers in all of baseball. The bet here is he rejects the qualifying offer.
The Yankees firmly believe Kuroda will either re-sign with them or return to Japan. Kuroda says otherwise; he told the Los Angeles Times, “I never said anything like that.” The Dodgers are likely suitors for the right-hander, and the Angels could pursue him, as well. The Red Sox will be in the mix, too.
Fueled by their desire to get their payroll under $189 million in time for the 2014 season, the Yankees would love to simply bring back Kuroda, 37, and Andy Pettitte, 40, on one-year deals and consider their starting rotation largely finished. Pettitte seems quite likely to come back. Kuroda’s future, though, is more up in the air. If he does leave, the Yankees aren’t sure yet how they would replace him, given their inclination to avoid multi-year deals. In the interest of cost containment, a trade could make more sense.
2. Soriano: His agent Scott Boras is sending strong signals Soriano will pass on the qualifying offer. At the meetings here yesterday, Boras said, “Most qualifying offers are for players of the highest value. I don’t anticipate many players accepting single-year contracts that are in that arena.”
Let’s just make sure today, though. Boras does have a history of surprising teams by bringing his players back on these sorts of arrangements. Most recently, Francisco Rodriguez accepted arbitration from Milwaukee last year, stunning the Brewers. Besides, Boras said it would be “a great business decision” for the Yankees to retain Soriano, even with Mariano Rivera prepared to come back.
If Soriano departs, the Yankees won’t spend anything approaching $13.3 million to replace their 2012 closer. But they will look to supplement a relief corps of Rivera (assuming he and the Yankees agree on a contract), David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, Clay Rapada and David Aardsma with a lower-priced free agent. Former Kansas City closer Joakim Soria, coming off Tommy John surgery, would be an interesting piece.
3. Swisher: For all of his October woes, Swisher gave the Yankees a great deal of regular-season value for the last four years.
“It’s going to take a lot of work to replace what he provided,” Cashman said. “Not just production-wise, but that switch-hitting ability, that flexibility that his athleticism provided.”
Finding an equivalent within the team’s budget goals won’t be easy at all. He’s ranked last here only because he’s the least likely to accept the qualifying offer. The team already has moved on.
Moved onto whom, though? As The Post’s Joel Sherman reported today, the team won’t go to multiple years on free agent Torii Hunter and isn’t interested in acquiring Arizona’s Justin Upton in a trade. Former Met Scott Hairston could make sense as part of a platoon with Raul Ibanez.
The Yankees also have discussed bringing back Ichiro Suzuki — a favorite of ownership — yet they’re wary of fielding an outfield of Ichiro, Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner, which would feature three lefty bats and only one power bat.