MLB

What shocking moves can occur at this year’s GM Meetings

INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — We try to anticipate every move made in the Hot Stove League, become mind-readers so that we think along with Brian Cashman, Sandy Alderson, Nick Swisher, Scott Boras and every other participant in baseball’s annual offseason drama.

But we’re nevertheless taken aback, shocked even, every winter.

Sure, the Marlins were going to go hard after Jose Reyes a year ago. They got him. But Mark Buehrle, too? And bona fide runs at Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson?

Two years ago, Cliff Lee was going to either the Yankees or the Rangers. Right until the point he signed with the Phillies.

And so on.

With the offseason unofficially beginning today as baseball’s General Managers Meetings kick off here in the California desert, let’s discuss some scenarios that would shock us — but are feasible.

1. The Mets go full Billy Beane and trade David Wright, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese and Ike Davis. The Post’s Joel Sherman first proposed this idea on Sept. 2. It’s a path the Mets should seriously consider if they find themselves making no progress on extension talks with Wright, the face of the franchise.

There’s still optimism that a Wright deal can get done; that’s your safer bet. Yet if the two sides can’t come even close to an agreement, then Alderson’s protégé Beane already mapped a great path. The A’s general manager traded Andrew Bailey, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez last winter and built a team talented enough to topple the Rangers for the American League West title.

This would go against the Mets’ culture of always trying to contend. However, is the Mets’ current culture one worth preserving at all costs?

2. The Yankees spend big on a free-agent outfielder. Not “big” as in Torii Hunter; the 37-year-old will probably sign for two years. Big as in Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton or B.J. Upton.

You can rank Hamilton as the least likely of that trio to wind up in The Bronx; there’s just too much baggage there, both physically and off the field. Taking aboard Bourn or Upton, though, would allow the Yankees to field a super-athletic outfield of one of the pair in center field, Curtis Granderson in right field and Brett Gardner in left field. Or it could make Granderson more available in a trade, and Ichiro Suzuki would love to still be in the mix, as well.

In order for this to become a reality, given the Yankees’ desire to get their payroll under $189 million by 2014, the team would have to essentially give up on signing Granderson long-term — a real possibility regardless, given his inconsistent 2012 — and also feel pessimistic about keeping Robinson Cano beyond next season. Bourn or Upton would represent one of two major investments, at the most, they could make in order to sufficiently cut their payroll.

3. The Brewers sign Josh Hamilton. This has been out there as a possibility, so maybe it wouldn’t “shock” as in “come out of nowhere.” Nevertheless, we would be talking about one of baseball’s smallest-market teams giving out one of the highest annual salaries ever.

The safer bet is for the Brewers, with Zack Greinke already traded and Shaun Marcum set to depart via free agency, to spend their limited resources on a starting pitcher — someone from the Anibal Sanchez-Kyle Lohse-Edwin Jackson group — and some bullpen help.

4. The Mariners trade Felix Hernandez. Ah, the annual question. Bet heavily against it, as Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik needs to put a contending team on the field sooner than later.

Here’s the rub, though: King Felix has two years left on his contract. If the team huddles with Hernandez and his agent and decides Hernandez is likely to depart after 2014, then Seattle could get a mammoth package in a trade for two years of the right-hander’s services. Even in a decent free-agent market for starting pitchers and with talents like Dickey, Jeremy Hellickson, Derek Holland and James Shields possibly available in the right deal, Hernandez would stand out as the crown jewel.

5. The Marlins double down on last year’s calamity and acquire more big-money free agents. Not happening. Just threw this in there because I never pass up an opportunity to use the phrase “double down.”