After launching Israel’s first major military campaign of the Arab Spring era, Jerusalem is watching closely for reactions around the region — and in Washington.
President Obama, who has so far admirably backed Israel’s right to defend its citizens, will play a major role in this unfolding drama. How long will his support last?
To be sure, Operation Pillar of Defense (it’s actually “Pillar of Cloud” in Hebrew, a Biblical reference) wasn’t conceived as a test of Israel’s neighbors or the world. It was launched Wednesday to end weeks of rocket attacks from Gaza and a growing strategic threat.
Until Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s image was that of a tough-talker who’s actually extremely cautious about using the military.
Indeed, Netanyahu’s first term as prime minister, last decade, was the only premiership in Israeli history unmarred by war — and he could’ve easily sailed to victory in the Jan. 22 national election with the same record in this term.
Hamas’ leaders certainly saw Bibi as war-shy; they’ve been attacking southern Israel for weeks, apparently believing they could do so with impunity. They escalated the shooting, then started crowing about it — abandoning their past pretenses that small factions they couldn’t control were responsible.
The group’s military leaders no longer even sought shelter as the rockets rained down on Israel.
Oops: On Wednesday, an Israeli drone obliterated a car carrying one of those leaders, Ahmad Jaabari.
The pinpoint hit was not only based on impeccable intelligence, but also instantly documented on video for anyone with a Twitter account to see.
Over several years, Jaabari had transformed Hamas from a ragtag collection of disparate Islamist groups into a well-organized army. As its military commander, he masterminded numerous attacks against Israel, including the 2006 kidnapping of Sgt. Gilad Shalit.
Crucially, Jaabari used Iranian support to build an impressive arsenal, including dozens of long-range Fajr-5 missiles that can reach Tel Aviv — a strategic threat that Israel couldn’t ignore.
And didn’t: Before Hamas had time to catch its breath after the Jaabari execution, IDF air and naval assets launched a quick second phase, eliminating most of Gaza’s Fajr launchers and depriving Hamas of its “doomsday” weapon.
With that one-two punch, the IDF got its mojo back. It’s now continuing mop-up operations, trying to inflict maximum harm on Hamas’ military infrastructure.
As Hamas armed these last few years, Israel was creating (with US help) the Iron Dome anti-missile system, which proved to be a game-changer this week, intercepting over 80 percent of the hundreds of missiles launched from Gaza since Wednesday.
A couple of Fajr missiles did manage to survive the first-day attack, reaching the Tel Aviv area yesterday and landing in vacant lots. Three Israelis were also killed in the southern town of Kiryat Malachi.
Meanwhile, the IDF has managed to keep the Gaza noncombatant casualty count relatively low so far — considering that Hamas placed its missiles in densely-populated areas.
Yet Arabs across the region are understandably irate. Rulers like Egypt’s President Mohammed Morsi must play a delicate game. Cairo recalled its ambassador from Tel Aviv and got the UN Security Council to convene a symbolic “emergency” session Wednesday night.
Then again, Morsi has so far managed to rebuff the Islamist advisers who want him to nullify the peace treaty with Israel. And Egyptian intelligence officers are starting to mediate a cease-fire, using their established ties with Israel and Hamas.
But today Egypt’s prime minister, Hisham Qandil, plans to visit a Gaza mosque for Friday prayers. How long canMorsi ride the tiger of rising street anger?
Obama can help. He was likely informed of Israel’s intended action on Monday, when Netanyahu’s national security adviser, Yaakov Amidror, quietly visited the White House. On Wednesday, Obama spoke with Morsi on the phone, seeking to influence his next moves.
Publicly, the president expressed nearly unqualified support for Israel. But he’s under pressure from US allies in the region, including key Hamas supporters Turkey and Qatar, to reverse course. And some in his inner circles may see this as an opportunity to finally “put some distance” between America and Israel.
Tehran is watching. The mullahs may see the Gaza fight, and its effect on a region in turmoil, as a dress rehearsal for the much-discussed military confrontation over Iran’s nukes.
But even if Obama remains adamantly opposed to such confrontation, he’d be ill-advised to qualify America’s support for Israel’s current war against terrorists.
After all, it’s small-scale, intel-based, drone-fueled, assassination-rich warfare — the approach we’re now using in our wars.