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When the Red Sox traded four players and roughly a quarter of a billion dollars to the Dodgers in late August, it was framed as “The Perfect Storm,” a once-in-a-lifetime confluence of a team desperate to unload a payroll full of money and another club even hungrier to add it.
We never got Perfect Storm 2 in theaters, but less than three months after that supposed once-in-a-lifetime baseball event, we have the sequel.
Bud Selig said he was looking into the agreed-to 12-player mega-deal between the Marlins and Blue Jays. The commissioner is particularly worried about further disenfranchising the South Florida market and also whether this kind of betrayal of a municipality and a fan base one year after a new stadium opened will chill other locales from anteing up taxpayer bucks to help fund new facilities (be worried Tampa Bay Rays, very worried).
But all indications were that he ultimately was going to allow Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio to go north to Toronto in exchange for mainly prospects and massive salary relief.
Here is the problem: If Selig did not stop the Red Sox from unloading Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto to the Dodgers, how does he halt the Marlins’ plans now?
Yes, Boston’s intentions are pretty clear — to honor a ravenous fan base by steadily rebuilding again toward one of the game’s largest payrolls. Meanwhile, Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria has earned no such expectations of good faith during his mendacious reign.
But at heart both Boston and Miami had the same landscape: Last-place teams unlikely to gain the tactical and financial flexibility necessary to escape that predicament without excising onerous long-term obligations. In essence, Miami was not going to win with Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, a limited prospect base and few funds to augment around them. The Marlins’ long-term future — like Boston’s stripped particularly of Crawford and Beckett — is better positioned now.
The Marlins’ get-elite-quick plan moved them to seventh in the majors in payroll at $118 million to begin last year and will be 30th out of 30 in 2013. With the new stadium and burgeoning game-wide resources such as a recently doubled national TV deal, the Marlins should be able to comfortably grow into an $80 million-ish payroll (assuming any veteran would want to take their money). Can Loria and his henchmen be trusted to do that rather than just pocket the money yet again? Probably not.
Still, they are better for the long-term future today than yesterday — something both the Dodgers and Blue Jays also would claim after being on the money-accepting sides of this deal. Yes, the Miami market — rightfully, by the way — is in full revolt against the Marlins. But how can Selig invoke his best-interest-of-baseball clause when both organizations involved in a deal can sell a rosier tomorrow?
And once a second one of these Perfect Storm deals is approved by the commissioner’s office, we should assume it will not stop at a twice-in-a-lifetime occurrence. After all, so many teams are awash in and planning to spend money this offseason that it is just a matter of time, perhaps, that the clubs that sign Josh Hamilton or Zack Greinke will be looking to bundle one of them with a few other pieces to regain financial solvency and sanity.
Do you think it is impossible that, at some point, the Reds recognize that their market might not allow them to have $300 million invested long term in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips? That the Yankees, with Alex Rodriguez, or the Phillies, with Ryan Howard, are forced to package some goodies with a terrible contract to make those odious pacts vanish? That the Rockies are combining Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez to see what kind of 10-prospect, financial-relief uber-deal can be fashioned?
Three months ago, I would have thought any of that impossible. But now that I have seen baseball’s version of both The Perfect Storm and its sequel, well, the third installment is not likely to take me by surprise.
Buehrle not burly vs. Yanks
If the huge Marlins-Blue Jays trade is completed, Mark Buehrle not only will be returning to the AL, but to the AL East and regular games against the Yankees — which has been a huge problem in his otherwise stellar career.
Buehrle has a 6.38 ERA in 12 starts against the Yankees. Among active pitchers with at least 10 starts vs. the Yanks, the only worse ERAs belong to Bruce Chen (6.66), Shaun Marcum (6.61) and Derek Lowe (6.41).
Among pitchers with at least 300 plate appearances against the Yankees since 1974, Buehrle’s .333 batting average against is the worst.
With a 1-8 record, Buehrle has a .111 winning percentage against the Yankees. Over the past half century, the only pitchers with at least 10 starts vs. the Yankees and a worse regular-season winning percentage are John Burkett (0-6, .000), Rick Reed (0-5, .000), Marcelino Lopez (1-11, .083), Mike Torrez (1-10, .091) and Dennis Martinez (2-19, .095).
Of course, the Yankees’ offense might not be as good as its recent past, but neither is Buehrle.
“I think the best you can hope for in the AL East is that [Buehrle] is a No. 4-type starter now who eats innings,” a personnel head from a team seriously hunting starting pitching this offseason said.
But Buehrle still is chewing up innings. Though some teams worried about the health of Buehrle’s shoulder when he was a free agent after the 2011 campaign, he did post 200-plus innings for a 12th straight year in 2012 for the Marlins. The second-longest active streak of six belongs to CC Sabathia, Matt Cain, James Shields and Justin Verlander. Buehrle and Sabathia are tied for the longest active streaks of double-digit-win seasons at 12.
And Buehrle has this odd quirk: He has had exactly 13 wins in each of the past four seasons, tying the longest such streak in major league history with Hal Schumacher, who won 13 for the Giants each year from 1937-40.