As negotiators for the NHL and NHLPA meet Wednesday morning in Manhattan, here’s a percentage for you to hang your hat on: zero.
As in, there is a zero percent chance talks toward ending the lockout will gain traction unless the union presents an offer that features a 50-50 split of hockey-related revenue, and sooner in the deal rather than later.
If the NHLPA, which caucused yesterday, doesn’t meet what is essentially a league-imposed guideline to link to percentage-of-the-gross, today’s meeting will end quickly. So would any sense of optimism that a 2012-13 season of at least 60 games might be played.
Representatives from the union recognize the reality, though the players are of course under no obligation to adopt the NHL’s world view. But if the union continues to fight for guaranteed dollars, the fight more likely than not will spill out of the conference room on Sixth Avenue and into labor board hearing rooms and court rooms across the continent.
Understand, though, the union’s calculation of 50/50 is likely to be different than the league’s definition. The “make-whole” issue regarding existing contracts complicates the arithmetic. It can’t be 50/50 including all existing contracts (even if pro-rated) under escrow. The sides will have to agree on how to carve these deals out of the equation, no easy task, but obviously not impossible.
Despite the smorgasbord of contract systems restrictions the league has presented in an attempt to turn back the clock a couple of decades on NHL freedom, it is believed — but not confirmed — that the only two must-haves are elimination of front-loaded contracts and reducing entry- level contracts to two years.
Even if yielding on freedom issues in order to be allowed to take a smaller share of the pie amounts to a dog’s breakfast for the players, these specific areas should not represent deal breakers for the union’s rank-and-file.
Indeed, the NHLPA would be wise to propose an entry-level system that eliminates bonuses and would thus open up cap space for veterans and reduce entry-level players’ impact on escrow.
The Oilers, for example, have five players on entry level deals — Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Justin Schultz — whose 2012-13 base salaries amount to $4,462,500 but whose cap hits, including bonuses, equal $16.233 million. Eliminating entry-level bonuses would thus open over $11.77 million in cap space for the Oilers. Finding ways to open cap space is a fundamental requirement for the union if operating under a system in which veterans on the market will be squeezed under a lower ceiling.
It is admirable for the current players to look out for the next generation. Truly it is. But at some point, it becomes a lot to ask people like Martin Brodeur, and Brad Richards Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Gaborik, Martin St. Louis, Dan Boyle, Eric Staal and Zdeno Chara to sacrifice a second season of their respective NHL careers so some 13-year-old has the ability to earn bonuses when he makes it to the NHL in 2017.
That, of course, assumes the league will be open for business by then. Odds on that at the moment might not be better than, oh, 50/50.