Hamas’ exchange of rockets and missiles with Israel over the past week or so was certainly dramatic — but it’s only Act I in Iran’s plan to conquer the region and destroy the Jewish state.
In Act II,Israel will be squaring off with a much more formidable enemy: Hezbollah, in Lebanon. And the plot will shift decidedly.
Iran’s use of Hamas as a warm-up act was brilliant. The rocket-launching infrastructure in Gaza was in place — and, indeed, already being used. Hamas’ fighters were willing dupes, eager to expand the battle in whatever way they could.
And the conflict has served Iran well. The point: to challenge Israel’s resources and test its military responses.
But Hamas is a rag-tag militia, lacking the organization, discipline and advanced military systems that would make it an existential threat to Israel. It has plenty of determination and a seemingly endless supply of young men ready to die to kill Israelis and destroy Israel. But that isn’t enough.
When it comes to a waging a real battle that can actually challenge Israel’s survivability, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, is simply much better prepared for the job.
Hezbollah rules with an iron fist — and, of course, answers directly to Iran. Given its strengths, a confrontation with Israel will make Gaza seem like child’s play. Armed with as many as 100,000 rockets and advanced missiles, Hezbollah is capable of raining enough terror down on Israel to put Hamas to shame — and overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.
The stage is now set for a new Lebanon war, one dramatically larger in scale and more far-reaching than the last one there between Israel and Iran’s proxy.
Since the 2006 Lebanon War, Tehran has shipped a massive supply of sophisticated missiles to Hezbollah. These have been used to build a weapons machine that can bring a full war directly into the heart of Israel.
Hezbollah’s arsenal now includes far more missiles — ones that are more deadly, accurate and longer-range — than what Hamas has had to rely on, some mere hundreds of Grads and Qassam rockets and the occasional longer-range Fajr-5. They’re certainly a far cry from the Katyushas that Hezbollah used in the past: Tel Aviv is now well within striking distance, not to mention Haifa, which is even closer.
The mullahs helped their Lebanese partners set up the necessary launchers and provided contingents of Iranian Revolutionary Guards to train Hezbollah fighters, assist in the construction of its military infrastructure and keep the mission on target.
And Hezbollah militants are better trained and much more disciplined than Hamas’ irregulars in Gaza.
Given this more dire threat, Israel’s response will have to be very different from the way it has dealt with Hamas. And while Jerusalem’s contingency plans remain unknown, it’s clear the scale of the turmoil will far exceed anything seen so far.
Israel surely won’t be unprepared for the showdown. Its experience in several existential wars, its extraordinary technological capabilities and its unwillingness to march its citizens into the sea like lemmings creates a burning determination that is likely equal to that of its enemies.
But such a war, no matter how it develops, will have major consequences. For starters, it will likely be devastating to both Israel and Hezbollah.
This is the battle to watch for — and anything could start it. All that’s needed is for Iran to give the signal.
The trouble is, that’s not even the scariest part. After Act II comes Act III — in which the mullahs, perhaps with nuclear weapons, make their final move to achieve supremacy in the Muslim Crescent spanning the Middle East.
As for the final ending to this nightmarish saga? It still remains to be written.
Ilana Freedman is an intelligence analyst with over 25 years experience, and CEO of Gerard Group International. She can be contacted at ilana@gerardgroup.com